snowNH Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It amazes me how when the nam was a hit in previous systems we loved it, now we hate it. Late in the game for it to be so sucky jmho. What are you talking about??? Some of us here love the 00z NAM including me... Its actually about 100 miles further NW on this run! Through 36 hours it looks like nearly identical to the Euro. Mets said that the 500 vort and the surface low didn't line up, which is odd and really doesn't make sense. In previous systems, it actually looked like a viable option at 500mb and surface. This is almost right where we want it, as we start the seasonal NW trend in about 3-4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's hard to go against the Euro and GFS ensembles. Not seeing the NAM and GFS op runs amped up is definitely a concern to me. The only thing I gave a rat's azz about was seeing the GFS ens tic se....wasn't a fan of that, but I still say we will need that room during the final 48hrs because this is going to come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's hard to go against the Euro and GFS ensembles. Not seeing the NAM and GFS op runs amped up is definitely a concern to me. How would you feel if GFS delivers tonight? I dunno....we've been through this cycle in every single storm I've followed here that ended up good over the past 10 years. Euro has it and locks it in more or less. GFS insists it's OTS. Finally in the last 1-2 days GFS caves. NAM comes into focus either at 84 hours or waits to 24. This one's a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 and the NAM ticks back west a bit tick tick tick lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's incredible how warm this system is....someone care to give me the reasoning for this? Or is it as simple as it is taping into gulf moisture and warm air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How would you feel if GFS delivers tonight? I dunno....we've been through this cycle in every single storm I've followed here that ended up good over the past 10 years. Euro has it and locks it in more or less. GFS insists it's OTS. Finally in the last 1-2 days GFS caves. NAM comes into focus either at 84 hours or waits to 24. This one's a hit. yeah if the GFS comes west a good bit I'll feel much much better. The GFS ensembles going east at 18z concerned me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's incredible how warm this system is....someone care to give me the reasoning for this? Or is it as simple as it is taping into gulf moisture and warm air? It's warm and you can bet your azz that the same folks who are "concerned" now would be dropping rain bombs everywhere if the NAM and GFS had trended to ACK by now. Folks will find something to be unnerved about until they are shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Because in that particular instance it was favored and there were met reasons why that were outlined...this time it isn't. I love how you twist sh**. You were all over an inland track until 18z. lol No, that's you twisting again. I said i favored an extreme track inside or outside. Made that very clear for the same reasons Scott outlined. The middle solutions thread a needle that may not exist. The nam has been amped for every single storm this year including the pre Christmas storm when the other models were ots. It's odd that it's pointing ots now. Doesn't mean it's right but it's strange to me that it's suddenly being dumped. The euro had the blizzard over the bm then just east of ack at 12z the day of. The nam was west. The nam was west last week when the others were initially again over the bm and then ack. It IS odd that it's flat this time. Doesn't mean it's right. The nam surface track even at 78-84 hours has been excellent in general for a month. I favor an extreme solution this time and not the ack to canal track of the last x events. Of confluence breaks down it could turn the corner ala gem, if not a flatter solution is possible. It's 3.5 days away. Anything could happen but let's not paraphrase what people are saying. When in doubt ask because what you personally read is not what I meant/said. No different than what happened with Scott earlier. Ryan I'd agree, 50/50' right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 yeah if the GFS comes west a good bit I'll feel much much better. The GFS ensembles going east at 18z concerned me. I'd be more concerend if it happened at 0Z. Those off hour runs never worry me But while we're at it....these only have a few robust members but the op seems the driest... http://raleighwx.ame...18zp72f108.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There is still a lot of time for this. If you take the euro solution, it could go 80 miles se and give much of us a decent snow event, in sne. I'm not really worried at all..but we all agree that it's not impossible. I just would not favor something wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 No, that's you twisting again. I said i favored an extreme track inside or outside. Made that very clear for the same reasons Scott outlined. The middle solutions thread a needle that may not exist. The nam has been amped for every single storm this year including the pre Christmas storm when the other models were ots. It's odd that it's pointing ots now. Doesn't mean it's right but it's strange to me that it's suddenly being dumped. The euro had the blizzard over the bm then just east of ack at 12z the day of. The nam was west. The nam was west last week when the others were initially again over the bm and then ack. It IS odd that it's flat this time. Doesn't mean it's right. I favor an extreme solution this time and not the ack to canal track of the last x events. Of confluence breaks down it could turn the corner ala gem, if not a flatter solution is possible. It's 3.5 days away. Anything could happen but let's not paraphrase what people are saying. When in doubt ask because what you personally read is not what I meant/said. No different than what happened with Scott earlier. Ryan I'd agree, 50/50' right now. You are the only one twisting....you cried non-stop about how this would end up where every other one had, near the cape and you would rain. This is a hit; remember I said this and save the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How would you feel if GFS delivers tonight? I dunno....we've been through this cycle in every single storm I've followed here that ended up good over the past 10 years. Euro has it and locks it in more or less. GFS insists it's OTS. Finally in the last 1-2 days GFS caves. NAM comes into focus either at 84 hours or waits to 24. This one's a hit. I'm with you Jerry. The Euro being steadfast says a lot. Even if the 00z EURO were to show a shift SE tonight I would still think as we close in on 36-48hr mark we'd see a charge NW. I'm more comfortable hoping for a few ticks NW than a progged track too far NW and the hope for a SE trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 No, that's you twisting again. I said i favored an extreme track inside or outside. Made that very clear for the same reasons Scott outlined. The middle solutions thread a needle that may not exist. The nam has been amped for every single storm this year including the pre Christmas storm when the other models were ots. It's odd that it's pointing ots now. Doesn't mean it's right but it's strange to me that it's suddenly being dumped. The euro had the blizzard over the bm then just east of ack at 12z the day of. The nam was west. The nam was west last week when the others were initially again over the bm and then ack. It IS odd that it's flat this time. Doesn't mean it's right. The nam surface track even at 78-84 hours has been excellent in general for a month. I favor an extreme solution this time and not the ack to canal track of the last x events. Of confluence breaks down it could turn the corner ala gem, if not a flatter solution is possible. It's 3.5 days away. Anything could happen but let's not paraphrase what people are saying. When in doubt ask because what you personally read is not what I meant/said. No different than what happened with Scott earlier. Ryan I'd agree, 50/50' right now. The NAM was OTS for the Boxing Day storm until much closer in. I remember that and maybe I'm wrong and hopefully you have the images but as I recall, it was last to the party....actually ironically Euro was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There is still a lot of time for this. If you take the euro solution, it could go 80 miles se and give much of us a decent snow event, in sne. I'm not really worried at all..but we all agree that it's not impossible. I just would not favor something wide right. Are we all in agreement that a benchmark track is most likely this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's warm and you can bet your azz that the same folks who are "concerned" now would be dropping rain bombs everywhere if the NAM and GFS had trended to ACK by now. Folks will find something to be unnerved about until they are shoveling. Nervous Nellies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There is still a lot of time for this. If you take the euro solution, it could go 80 miles se and give much of us a decent snow event, in sne. I'm not really worried at all..but we all agree that it's not impossible. I just would not favor something wide right. My gut tells me this hits. I agree with scott too though that the NAM having a suppressed solution is odd considering how it's handled other storms this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Are we all in agreement that a benchmark track is most likely this time? I wouldn't agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 man, do we have to deal with the same bickering by the same people before every storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Below zero, windy, early week light snows giving way to warning criteria snows. Ride the EURO, a few ticks this way and that but the needle is going to pin 25-35miles east of the Cape in the end. Thats my call, sticking with it. Good night, would like to stay up but tomorrow is going to be tough for those of us that work outside. Have fun, be nice to each other, Good luck at 00z. Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Are we all in agreement that a benchmark track is most likely this time? I originally thought something near ACK yesterday and felt maybe similar today or a hair south. As of now it seems like consensus is near the BM..give or take a few miles on either side, but I'm still nervous of a trend nw. There is still plenty of time for this, and these southern systems can be notorious for that. Obviously, there is the chance that we have too much confluence and it goes wide right. If 00z goes se a bit, it still wouldn't concern me as far as a whiff goes. If 12z continues, then perhaps we need to consider it more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 man, do we have to deal with the same bickering by the same people before every storm? Nothing wrong with some debate....no one is going personal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just took a look at the NAM. Incredibly potent upper level disturbance. Almost like a Miller A type Dec 2005. Based on what I see for vorticity, and what would be very large PDVA close to the s/w, I would think the surface low would be tucked closer in, to the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Absolutely! Same as on the 18z. SLP too far east where the convection is I wonder if we see some issues with convective feedback on this run, looks like there could be a decent amount of convection involved across parts of FL and just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 My gut tells me this hits. I agree with scott too though that the NAM having a suppressed solution is odd considering how it's handled other storms this season. I don't know how much stock to put into how its handled previous events...that's an interesting thought. We could probably find wins and losses for almost all the respectable models this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nothing wrong with some debate....no one is going personal. not yet.. it always seems to lead that way, I guess is just that the point of views always seem to be the same.. so is always the same debate.. whatever just saying.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Shouldn't the GFS be coming out now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How would you feel if GFS delivers tonight? I dunno....we've been through this cycle in every single storm I've followed here that ended up good over the past 10 years. Euro has it and locks it in more or less. GFS insists it's OTS. Finally in the last 1-2 days GFS caves. NAM comes into focus either at 84 hours or waits to 24. This one's a hit. Just hit it on the head. By now the rest of the guidance starts to fall in line. If it dOes great, slippage east what do we think then? Let's see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 not yet.. it always seems to lead that way, I guess is just that the point of views always seem to be the same.. so is always the same debate.. whatever just saying.. I'll drop it if he returns, but my POV isn't always the same, Raul....I don't go for snow no matter what. I hear ya, though.....sry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Shouldn't the GFS be coming out now? Yes, but not out to 72h yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Shouldn't the GFS be coming out now? It's out to 30 on NCEP...and pretty similar to the 18z run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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