Boston-winter08 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That is a graze at best. Convert . to MM that is .3 to .7" liquid for SE areas, bit more cape; and absolutely no good for the interior. if the NOGAPS isn't a graze, we have issues considering it SE bias take a look at the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That is a graze at best. Convert . to MM that is .3 to .7" liquid for SE areas, bit more cape; and absolutely no good for the interior. It was just one frame, but the total was over a half inch for BOS metro...a far cry from "wont even threaten the Cape". That's a great spot to see the NOGAPS in the 84h range...its done that a few runs now. If it keeps putting it there for another couple runs, thats a pretty good bet that the others will go NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It was just one frame, but the total was over a half inch for BOS metro...a far cry from "wont even threaten the Cape". That's a great spot to see the NOGAPS in the 84h range...its done that a few runs now. If it keeps putting it there for another couple runs, thats a pretty good bet that the others will go NW. Smack him across the face with the Schwartz Synoptic Seven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Smack him across the face with the Schwartz Synoptic Seven :lol: Too bad this will be deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 :lol: Too bad this will be deleted At least it was somewhat related to the storm threat and modeling....this thread has gone way too OT today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At least it was somewhat related to the storm threat and modeling....this thread has gone way too OT today. I know...it's tough to stay focused...alot of it is my fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The met on CBS Boston was showing the rain/ice/snow graphic for the storm and looping it through Wednesday and Thursday...wtf? A little early for that stuff IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That is a graze at best. Convert . to MM that is .3 to .7" liquid for SE areas, bit more cape; and absolutely no good for the interior. Uh you missed a frame more like 25 mm total about 1 inch helluva graze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I was going to put together a preliminary map this evening, but with some uncertainty from the 18z runs, I'd rather get some closure on that first. Not that I think they're of much consequence, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I was going to put together a preliminary map this evening, but with some uncertainty from the 18z runs, I'd rather get some closure on that first. Not that I think they're of much consequence, but we'll see. I just put together a little write up, thinking high chance of a widespread 8''+ and moderate chance of a widespread 12''+. Thought the GFS looked awful far east...I'm also backing off my track from last night...not going to be that far west as I had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I was going to put together a preliminary map this evening, but with some uncertainty from the 18z runs, I'd rather get some closure on that first. Not that I think they're of much consequence, but we'll see. The 18z runs cast some doub't Sam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's come to this ... zaprudering the QPF on, of all models, the NOGAPS at 84+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Smack him across the face with the Schwartz Synoptic Seven What is your forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The met on CBS Boston was showing the rain/ice/snow graphic for the storm and looping it through Wednesday and Thursday...wtf? A little early for that stuff IMO... lol I think a lot of mets are jumping the gun with putting out specifics. Not sure exactly why. Could be because model guidance was latching onto this storm early, so they feel they've been watching it long enough. The antecedent cold and snow pack is also driving the hype of the storm. A lot of people don't realize, the event is JUST now entering the NAM's range, during which period we've seen giant changes occur in past events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's come to this ... zaprudering the QPF on, of all models, the NOGAPS at 84+ hours. Tends to happen during the "Dead period" before the 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 lol I think a lot of mets are jumping the gun with putting out specifics. Not sure exactly why. Could be because model guidance was latching onto this storm early, so they feel they've been watching it long enough. The antecedent cold and snow pack is also driving the hype of the storm. A lot of people don't realize, the event is JUST now entering the NAM's range, during which period we've seen giant changes occur in past events. I would definite mention the possible of a significant snowstorm...even mention typical mixing issues in coastal areas..but showing a modeled rain/ice/snow line on tv this soon is not prudent...even if the met mentions it could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruschi Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Grabbed it for y'all to rip. 1-5 down here means rain:( Stuck at 16.5 on the season. Thats really bold throwing out a map so soon. Yikes:/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At least it was somewhat related to the storm threat and modeling....this thread has gone way too OT today. Any chance you can post the SSS? Or is it a closely guarded trad secret? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tends to happen during the "Dead period" before the 00z runs. JMA anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tends to happen during the "Dead period" before the 00z runs. Oh its true, I missed the other stuff from earlier today and just read bits and pieces as i was out riding most of today........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The 18z runs cast some doub't Sam? not necessarily casting doubt on a particular senario, rather just continuing uncertainty to the forecast in general. I'd like to see a little more uniformity. The 00z runs should be revealing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 JMA anyone? Whacko!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Any chance you can post the SSS? Or is it a closely guarded trad secret? Kevin made up the name...I'm not sure where he got it from lol. Its no secret, but a rule of thumb that if you get multiple nogaps runs relatively close to the coast inside of 84h, its usually a red flag for a further NW solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How did American WRF do last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 JMA anyone? Wow would interior eastern PA score on that run. They deserve it actually. And yet another global giving us more than 1 inch qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 not necessarily casting doubt on a particular senario, rather just continuing uncertainty to the forecast in general. I'd like to see a little more uniformity. The 00z runs should be revealing. Yes, Will made a good point earlier, At least i think it was Will, Or maybe Scott, That the off hour runs seem to want to keep this storm east........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 JMA anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How did American WRF do last storm? It was OK. We're only out to 30hrs right now though. It's going to get some major overhauls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Pedestrian............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How did American WRF do last storm? I think it did relatively well. Hit some of the right areas. Not perfect, but not bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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