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January 26-27 Storm Threat - II


Baroclinic Zone

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We're dealing with the 18z GFS which is currently in the range that it often loses storms for a couple runs, and the 18z NAM in the range that nobody should pay attention to.

And then there's the Euro which has been extremely consistent and is currently in the range where it is known for domination.

I'm ordering everyone online right now to go get laid and wait for the 00z Euro

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Where's the "like" button - especially since I'm a lurker.

We're dealing with the 18z GFS which is currently in the range that it often loses storms for a couple runs, and the 18z NAM in the range that nobody should pay attention to.

And then there's the Euro which has been extremely consistent and is currently in the range where it is known for domination.

I'm ordering everyone online right now to go get laid and wait for the 00z Euro

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Just reading catching up and reading all the posts. Trend is definately east and with 18Z NAM and GFS east I am saying this is going to be a whiff. Yeah, I know the Euro blah, blah,blah but the northern energy just isn't going to phase with this southern stream system. I am up here in NH so maybe the Cape up to Boston will get snow but I am really not excited at this point. Would like to see the trends go the other way.

Next

You're premature in your call. 3rd run in a row now on GEFS anomaly. With significant anomaly departures -2 to -3 across SNE and ENY @ 850, +2 to +4 pwat departures above normal same area and -2 anomalies at 250.

Even latest SREF while ending around Wed when the event starts are west. Grant it, this isn't in the SREFS wheelhouse period of excellence but with their bouncing around that's a good sign, too

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We're dealing with the 18z GFS which is currently in the range that it often loses storms for a couple runs, and the 18z NAM in the range that nobody should pay attention to.

And then there's the Euro which has been extremely consistent and is currently in the range where it is known for domination.

I'm ordering everyone online right now to go get laid and wait for the 00z Euro

The ensembles have been quite consistent from all major models. 18z GEFS went a bit east as did 06z this morning, but all in all, quite consistent. Euro and its ensembles have been the most consistent of the bunch.

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The ensembles have been quite consistent from all major models. 18z GEFS went a bit east as did 06z this morning, but all in all, quite consistent. Euro and its ensembles have been the most consistent of the bunch.

Ensembles have certainly proved why they are useful, over the last 2-3 days.

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You're premature in your call. 3rd run in a row now on GEFS anomaly. With significant anomaly departures -2 to -3 across SNE and ENY @ 850, +2 to +4 pwat departures above normal same area and -2 anomalies at 250.

Even latest SREF while ending around Wed when the event starts are west. Grant it, this isn't in the SREFS wheelhouse period of excellence but with their bouncing around that's a good sign, too

Understatement.

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We're dealing with the 18z GFS which is currently in the range that it often loses storms for a couple runs, and the 18z NAM in the range that nobody should pay attention to.

And then there's the Euro which has been extremely consistent and is currently in the range where it is known for domination.

I'm ordering everyone online right now to go get laid and wait for the 00z Euro

That's very good advice. See ya later!

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Ensembles have certainly proved why they are useful, over the last 2-3 days.

It certainly has helped with the smoothing out of the run to run inconsistency of the OP models. I almost think this has been a setup where the off hour runs are performing more like they did 5 years ago. They seem to be doing these jumps east and then come back during the primary runs. Regardless, its pretty toigh to go against what the Euro and its ensembles have been showing consistently for several runs now.

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It certainly has helped with the smoothing out of the run to run inconsistency of the OP models. I almost think this has been a setup where the off hour runs are performing more like they did 5 years ago. They seem to be doing these jumps east and then come back during the primary runs. Regardless, its pretty toigh to go against what the Euro and its ensembles have been showing consistently for several runs now.

Man it's so nice to have a 20" snowpack and cold with snow chances for as far as the eye can see......I don't have all of this pressure to get a 20" snowfall...I'll be fine with 10"....it's like not worrying about allowing a grandslam because you have a 10 run lead.

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It certainly has helped with the smoothing out of the run to run inconsistency of the OP models. I almost think this has been a setup where the off hour runs are performing more like they did 5 years ago. They seem to be doing these jumps east and then come back during the primary runs. Regardless, its pretty toigh to go against what the Euro and its ensembles have been showing consistently for several runs now.

Even the Canadian ensembles haven't been all that bad.

I agree though...tough to go against the big dogs, but I still keep the door open to a few adjustments.

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Man it's so nice to have a 20" snowpack and cold with snow chances for as far as the eye can see......I don't have all of this pressure to get a 20" snowfall...I'll be fine with 10"....it's like not worrying about allowing a grandslam because youhave a 10 run lead.

haha

good analogy

you'll start sweating if you miss a couple storms or its getting later in the year and your sitting on the edge of a record

07-08 was like that for me.....once i knew we were in reach of the record (fell 4 inches shy :thumbsdown: ), things got a lot more serious.

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We had no kiddos around this morning ;-)

I know which part you are not doing , Davey LOL

No gaps gives us over an inch in QPF based on two 6 hour totals. Got to like that and it's all snow. GEFS 850 E is way above normal per Andy, game on still.

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