ChrisM Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 huh...18z gefs pretty far se of the BM. thats amazing I wouldn't worry about that all to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 huh...18z gefs pretty far se of the BM. thats amazing It totally bombs out too. That would be a monster, if it were close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 huh...18z gefs pretty far se of the BM. thats amazing Do you think there's hope for us? Everyone's been celebrating and whooping it up while we've been raining and dryslotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It totally bombs out too. That would be a monster. Are you worried that the 18z GFS ENS mean seems to be east of the Operational? Could the kicker mean that this storm doesn't amplify properly and slides harmlessly out to sea? I was originally worried about rain down here, but now out-to-sea seems to be on the table. All the ensembles were much more bullish until this 18z run, although it does have an historical SE bias... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It totally bombs out too. That would be a monster, if it were close enough. i'm just amazed to see that kind of output at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Do you think there's hope for us? Everyone's been celebrating and whooping it up while we've been raining and dryslotting. eh...i'd still rather be Logan11 or MRG at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Cancel the storm cancel cancellation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Are you worried that the 18z GFS ENS mean seems to be east of the Operational? Could the kicker mean that this storm doesn't amplify properly and slides harmlessly out to sea? I was originally worried about rain down here, but now out-to-sea seems to be on the table. All the ensembles were much more bullish until this 18z run, although it does have an historical SE bias... Well I would not rule anything out, but my guess is that the storm would come closer than that. I am surprised it shifted, but we still can see some big shifts within 84 hours. I've seen it before. Given the southern origin and the model consensus of something at least near the BM, I would think it could be a little too far east. But, we'll see what 00z does. It would be silly to rule any track out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Remember the NCEP cover up scandal a few weeks ago ? Same thing had happened with ensembles east and then we got to 48 hrs and boom... monster hit. same thing here..just typical biases coming into play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Are you worried that the 18z GFS ENS mean seems to be east of the Operational? Could the kicker mean that this storm doesn't amplify properly and slides harmlessly out to sea? I was originally worried about rain down here, but now out-to-sea seems to be on the table. All the ensembles were much more bullish until this 18z run, although it does have an historical SE bias... If anything, I like to see that. It's bettern to have a jog east on a model run as we get closer, than a constant jog nw while we have 84 hours to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 . . . I've got rain/snow showing up for my forecast. Not too thrilled with the word "rain". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just reading catching up and reading all the posts. Trend is definately east and with 18Z NAM and GFS east I am saying this is going to be a whiff. Yeah, I know the Euro blah, blah,blah but the northern energy just isn't going to phase with this southern stream system. I am up here in NH so maybe the Cape up to Boston will get snow but I am really not excited at this point. Would like to see the trends go the other way. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Kinks in the armor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just reading catching up and reading all the posts. Trend is definately east and with 18Z NAM and GFS east I am saying this is going to be a whiff. Yeah, I know the Euro blah, blah,blah but the northern energy just isn't going to phase with this southern stream system. I am up here in NH so maybe the Cape up to Boston will get snow but I am really not excited at this point. Would like to see the trends go the other way. Next I'm certainly no expert, but in would no go against the trend right now. The overall winter thrend, that is... Not just what a couple of flawed models are showing. Just my IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Julie RI in the house, Bams here football! Europeans and Canadians want to have us shoveling roofs, Americans say enjoy the sun and sledding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Channel 7 met going for 10-15 for the majority of cent and eastern mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Channel 7 met going for 10-15 for the majority of cent and eastern mass. LOL..3 days in advance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Channel 7 met going for 10-15 for the majority of cent and eastern mass. Way too early for throwing numbers out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LOL..3 days in advance? Ut oh red flag alert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JulieRI Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Roof is shoveled and ready for snow - thanks Bam - still too much ice in gutters though - Green Bay was awesome - now I root for the Steelers and just had a great Thanksgiving dinner - life is good. Julie RI in the house, Bams here football! Europeans and Canadians want to have us shoveling roofs, Americans say enjoy the sun and sledding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Roof is shoveled and ready for snow - still too much ice in gutters though - Green Bay was awesome - now I root for the Steelers and just had a great Thanksgiving dinner - life is good. Sounds good, thank god for Barry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Way too early for throwing numbers out. I agree, I was shocked he put up a snowfall map. Maybe he dont care, hes the weekend met, Bouchard can come in and pick up the pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I agree, I was shocked he put up a snowfall map. Maybe he dont care, hes the weekend met, Bouchard can come in and pick up the pieces. Channel 7 always puts out their numbers before anyone else. They have been doing it all year. They are going to burn themselves one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Channel 7 met going for 10-15 for the majority of cent and eastern mass. Sounds like a Bouchard call (I Love him), but he's on today. So who was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If anything, I like to see that. It's bettern to have a jog east on a model run as we get closer, than a constant jog nw while we have 84 hours to go. 06z GEFS were kind of east too only to have 12z come back. Seems like these off hour runs the last 2 days have been showing a lot of east solutions and the prime hour runs just come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Channel 7 met going for 10-15 for the majority of cent and eastern mass. I think it's ridiculous to make public predictions on amounts more than 3 days out. Irresponsible, in fact. I guess people are more concerned on "being first" than "being right". 8.6/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think it's ridiculous to make public predictions on amounts more than 3 days out. Irresponsible, in fact. I guess people are more concerned on "being first" than "being right". 8.6/2 Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z NOGAPS way east, not even threatening the Cape really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Channel 7 met going for 10-15 for the majority of cent and eastern mass. That to me is totally irresponsible. At this point all that should be said to the public is that there is a potential of a big snow event mid week if the storm stays close enough to the coast but there is conflicting model data and to keep an eye on future forecasts. This is what gives Mets a bad name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z NOGAPS way east, not even threatening the Cape really. What are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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