40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think we'll see the 6z GFS begin to catch on,,but even then only slowly..like someone who is slow I'm not concerned in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol no kidding Looks like your competitors are finally using the Euro Tuesday: Cloudy with light snow, possibly a mix along the Shoreline. Low: 4. High: 25. Wednesday: A chance for snow, wintry mix, and wind. Low: 22. High: 32. Thursday: AM snow ending, clearing and windy. Low: 25. High: 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z doesn't mean much, everybody here knows at this range anything is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah--too early to get excited yet. Thats's one of the things that made me scratch my head over the ALY exuberance at this stage. Same on the daily trace. 9.9/3 Cautiously optimistic. Spiking the ball in the end-zone 4 days out is bad form. Snow stopped then started again. I was just outside and you can really tell real cold is crushing in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ryan is going to put Sunshine icons on the 5 day, based on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z doesn't mean much, everybody here knows at this range anything is possible I've glancing at the DGEX pretty consistently and it's been a whiff for awhile. I put the odds of a whiff @ ~15%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ryan is going to put Sunshine icons on the 5 day, based on the 18z GFS. It's interesting that we are snapping between two solutions it seems left and wide right. Models (some) are having trouble threading the needle some runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It seems like there is an awful lot of hype in the general public about this storm. Its way more than I heard before any of the previous storms this year and this one could be less impactful...pretty strange. It could also be very big, but there is kind of a fine line we're walking. hvy hvy caution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It's interesting that we are snapping between two solutions it seems left and wide right. Models (some) are having trouble threading the needle some runs. This is why we have ensembles. Gee, I wonder where the GFS ens will be (for the 20th consecutive run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ryan is going to put Sunshine icons on the 5 day, based on the 18z GFS. Hell no... I'm going with the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hvy hvy caution He's not lying...everyone is talking about it, like Rev Kev had one of those TV sermons and spoke about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Tell me that anyone looking at the H5 loop of the 18z NAM would be worrying about a whiff wide right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Even if the EURO did slide east, I wouldn't cry about ending up in the banding zone that is currently labeled for the Berks. I can hear the smoking cirrus comments now. Everything is on the table still. It seems like every this season storm has offered a wide array of possible solutions right up to go time. The final hours all seem to share a common theme however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Cautiously optimistic. Spiking the ball in the end-zone 4 days out is bad form. Snow stopped then started again. I was just outside and you can really tell real cold is crushing in here. I was just commenting that with it being 9* now, the forecast would have a 30* drop between now and dawn. Neat if that actually happens. Did BOX update the longterm yet? Can't tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 He's not lying...everyone is talking about it, like Rev Kev had one of those TV sermons and spoke about it. My gut tells me this thing hits... and it's a pretty big hit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 He's not lying...everyone is talking about it, like Rev Kev had one of those TV sermons and spoke about it. I have to be honest....I had lunch at the Wilmington 99 bar yesterday, and I had everyone screaming for more.....weenies were the only thing on the menu when I got done with that place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My gut tells me this thing hits... and it's a pretty big hit too. Tough to go against all the ensembles (ECMWF/GFS/GGEM)....they all pretty much say a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I can hear the smoking cirrus comments now. Everything is on the table still. It seems like every this season storm has offered a wide array of possible solutions right up to go time. The final hours all seem to share a common theme however. I'm not calling for that or wishing for it...just a hypothetical. You can have your jackpot, just give me a foot with no taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My gut tells me this thing hits... and it's a pretty big hit too. I'm pretty darn sure this won't whiff. I'm more worried about pytpe than I am a whiff. That's been my concern since this storm was modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Tough to go against all the ensembles (ECMWF/GFS/GGEM)....they all pretty much say a hit. yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My gut tells me this thing hits... and it's a pretty big hit too. and way more likely than not your gut's right, so I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I was just commenting that with it being 9* now, the forecast would have a 30* drop between now and dawn. Neat if that actually happens. Did BOX update the longterm yet? Can't tell. nope not yet, only up to Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Nice clipper next weekend for areas north of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Nice clipper next weekend for areas north of the pike. yeah it looks real nice hopefully it can drop a bit further south several inches likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If tonight's EURO holds serve, I'll be sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Enjoy .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...NAMELY FOR THE WED-EARLY THU COASTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK. NOTING MORE AGREEMENT COMING IN PLACE TO GIVE A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE FOR A SHOT AT ANOTHER MAJOR STORM FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TUESDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ENOUGH TO SET UP A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS SW WINDS PICK UP JUST A BIT. HOWEVER...WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WAS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK FREEZING WELL INLAND...THOUGH IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF N CT/RI/SE MA AS WELL AS E COASTAL MA. PRETTY DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...SO COULD SEE SNOW AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING. WITH POTENTIAL LOW PRES WORKING UP THE COAST...MAY SEE CHANCE POPS START TO SLIP IN AS FAR N AS THE MASS PIKE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS NOTED ABOVE...HAVE SEEN THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS FOR THE DEVELOPING LOW OUT OF THE GULF HEADING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE WEAKER AND FURTHER S OUTLIER OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE 12Z OP RUN IS STILL WEAKER AND S...BUT A BIT CLOSER TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT INDIVIDUAL PERTURBATIONS ON THE 12Z GEFS PAINTS A DIFFERENT PICTURE. OF SIGNIFICANT NOTE...8 OF THE 12 PERTURBATIONS CLUSTER A SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW NEAR OR INSIDE THE BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU...THOUGH A COUPLE BRING IT CLOSE TO THE S COAST /SIMILAR TO THE 12Z OP GGEM THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS FAR INLAND AS THAT MODEL BRINGS IT/. WHEN COMPARING THE 12Z GFS ENS MEAN LOW POSITION WITH THE 00Z OP EC...THEY ARE NEARLY ON TOP OF EACH OTHER. THE NEW 12Z EC OP RUN IS VERY CLOSE TO ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN BRINGING THE LOW CLOSE TO THE BENCHMARK OR JUST INSIDE...BUT STARTING TO SLOW A BIT AS COMPARED TO THE GEFS MEMBERS. THE NEW 18Z NAM RUN IS NOW STARTING TO VEER OFFSHORE...SO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR. HOWEVER...WITH THE GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE GEFS MEMBERS LEANING CLOSER TO THE COAST...WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD ANOTHER MAJOR STORM FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD STILL SEE SOME MIXING AND/OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WITH INCREASING E-NE WINDS. HAVE CONTINUED TO BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY...AS MOST MODELS HAVE A SIMILAR ONSET. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE BRUNT OF THE STORM WOULD OCCUR WED NIGHT...WITH CAT POPS ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. AS E-NE WINDS INCREASE...WILL SEE SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE NOTED SOME MIX WITH SLEET INLAND AS WELL...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN DEPENDING UPON THE STORM TRACK. COULD ALSO SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN INTO THE LOWER CAPE AS COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE LOW AS IT MOVES PAST LATE WED NIGHT. BASICALLY LEANED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD THE HPC GRIDS AS WELL AS THE EC AND GEFS. HOWEVER...STILL A LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS WELL AS THE LOW DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THIS OCCURS. THURSDAY...AT THIS POINT...EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF AS THE LOW PUSHES NE. COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THIS LOW...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS IT WILL BE TONIGHT. H850 TEMPS DO NOT DROP NEARLY AS LOW AS FORECASTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE H500 LONG WAVE TROUGH HANGING BACK AND FLATTENING ACROSS NY STATE AND THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...STILL COULD SEE LOWS DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE RATHER BLUSTERY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE LEFTOVER PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE DEPARTING LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 DavisStraight, on 23 January 2011 - 05:00 PM, said:Its probably because one of the Boston Mets said feet when he mentioned this storm the other day. A few people Ive talked to are expecting a two footer I assumed based on that forecast.Who said this?? I didnt hear it but I assume its either whdh or wbz. as weatherma mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z GEFS mean is east. Outside of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 He's not lying...everyone is talking about it, like Rev Kev had one of those TV sermons and spoke about it. Hype shoulod occur in wx whenever possible..It gets people excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 huh...18z gefs pretty far se of the BM. thats amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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