Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 wrt to the NAM this year its "power-house" period has been 48hours or less.. Agree...never thought I'd agree with you mre than once in a 24hour period. Perhaps Ryan's and my knowledge are seeping into your thought processes. (Even scarier if its true). See Above, first reply TO me GEFS looks a bit farther west on LP track and mean. Also of interest to me is that of the members that are west of the mean track most are VERY deep wrt to both the GEFS mean and the GFS OPS; ECEM seems to have similar soultions, i.e., members west of both the mean and OP are much deeper. 3 runs in a row on GEFS 850 wind anomaly now of -2 to -3 SD and PWATS +2 to +4. They too have decidely shifted more west across WNE and ENY. Game still on IMO. With regard to italicized point...I think it's more a function of you coming around to my reasoning and rationale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Andy, it's great to have you back posting in our threads! I need all the help I can get lol Anytime...though I do enjoy the comfort of "home"; if you know what I mean. I think BDL & points west have a good chance to get hit pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 With regard to italicized point...I think it's more a function of you coming around to my reasoning and rationale You are a tool but a good one. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Does it really matter? I can not go off topic so I reread what you posted, a lot was jest to being weenied but it's cool.Sorry will not fool around again count on it. Someone unamed posted dynamics does not affect sleet. Enjoy your snow. LOL relax, I didn't single you out..just a general comment. I appreciate the nice words you had earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 4pm box update appears that they're riding the EURO The text covering the storm appears to be old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well...the Euro has been pretty consistent over the past 3 runs. Typically that's a very good sign. Still, the hugely west (HV track) of CMC is a flag that this low may hug the coast more. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And Albany is right, the euro would have a great banding signature for the interior..maybe even into ORH and HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The text covering the storm appears to be old. Yeah they haven't updated the long term disco portion yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 spelling of "there" automatically questions thought process of the AFD Wrong. ALB has a great forecast team with a great track record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The text covering the storm appears to be old. not the disco, the point forecast updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I believe on both of the last two storms some of the Euro runs were a little underdone. Especially on the first storm. The point is I wouldn't even consider the GFS very much at all at this point. I think sometimes at least for me the tendency is to think the that since the GFS is so far east, the Euro won't come any farther west. In reality, when the GFS is so far out to lunch it doesn't count for anything because it will just make a huge correction at some point. So I think there is a very good possibility the Euro will come a little farther west. Once the NAM and some of the hi-res models start to get the general idea correct then we can start to compare them to the Euro. I could see this coming to about ACK, but I'm starting to doubt that it gets to the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I like the Euro ensemble depiction...just inside the BM. Not bad for 84h out. I agree....I ignored the NAM when it tried to take this through Logan11's field and I'll ignore it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And Albany is right, the euro would have a great banding signature for the interior..maybe even into ORH and HFD. Yes indeed maybe two one near where KALB thinks and another somewhat closer to the LP itself..perhaps ORH-HVN-ISP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 DT says rain into BOS?? based on Euro 84 hrs : the LOW is East of Salisbury MD by 50 miles or so... 988 mb maybe 986... western VA still getting hammered as is all of south central and ne PA into the LLower Hudson valley as well... r/s line NORTH of NYC...and has reached Bos +4C Norfolk to BWI to Millville to NYC to Martha's vineyard <LI class="uiUfiComment comment_1949665 ufiItem ufiItem"> Wxrisk.com 90 HRS...Low moves NE... down to 980 mb. Precip has gone over to HEAVY snow over PHL and all of se PA and all of NJ NYC still snowing over eastern 25% of PA and ne PA .. BOS is rain HEAVY snow over Lower Hudson Valley all of CT southern VT southern half of.... moving into sw Maine <LI class="uiUfiComment comment_1949666 ufiItem ufiItem"> <LI class="uiUfiComment comment_1949667 ufiItem ufiItem">Wxrisk.com at 96 hrs still .Moderate snow over New England but heavy over much of maine DT has no clue up here....he is always way off. He focuses on the ma and just gives ne a cursory glance, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ALB writes the AFD totally naked and recommends anyone reading this loses their pants as well WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF CLOSES THE H500 TROUGH OFF NEAR THE DELMARVA EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS SOUTHEAST OF KACY...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS TO 980 HPA. STRONG QG LIFT OCCURS IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE ACROSS MOST THE FCST AREA. THE ECMWF INDICATES POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL 2D PETERRSON FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SRN VT...CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS AXIS. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THEN SEVERAL INCHES OF THE WHITE STUFF IN A HOUR COULD BE POSSIBLE...AS DOCUMENTED IN CSTAR RESEARCH BY NOVAK AT ALL. THE BOTTOM LINE...PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MAY NEED THERE YARD STICKS. THERE COULD BE A TREMENDOUS GRADIENT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MIX AT THIS TIME...AS THE SFC WAVE JUST SOUTH OF KACK. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES ARE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN NORMAL ADVECTING IN LARGE AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THAT is totally awesome to see!!!!!!!!!!!1 Meanwhile, light snow 10.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The AlB AFD is well written and explains their interpretation very well. THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN INTRIGUING DISPARITY BETWEEN THE INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE NCEP MODEL SUITE IN THE EVOLUTION...AND TRACK OF THE MIDWEEK MILLER TYPE-A WINTER COASTAL STORM. WE ARE GOING TO BE FOLLOWING THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF...LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND HPC FOR THE TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM...MAY WHICH THE ALY FORECAST AREA GET A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN VT SOUTH. WE ARE NOT READY TO HOIST ANY KIND OF WATCH...AND WILL KEEP THE SNOWSTORM IN THE HWO...SINCE THE IMPACT PERIOD WILL NOT LIKELY BE UNTIL LATE WED THRU THU MORNING. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM INDICATE THE WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND SHIFT E/NE OUT TO SEA WITH A RATHER STRONG H500 NRN STREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THE CYCLONE OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...SEVERAL GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND THE GEFS MEAN ARE WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN...CLOSER TO COASTLINE...AND INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WED NIGHT. THE CANADIAN GGEM FAVORS AN INLAND RUNNER TRACK THAT HAS THE SFC WAVE INITIALLY MOVE WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS FROM ALABAMA...BUT THE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE MTNS WED PM...BUT HUGS THE COAST CLOSER WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF QPF LATE WED INTO THU. THIS LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE...SINCE ITS 00Z RUN WAS REALLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THIS STORM BEARS WATCHING...AND HERE ARE SOME OF THE SPECIFIC DETAILS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ALB writes the AFD totally naked and recommends anyone reading this loses their pants as well WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF CLOSES THE H500 TROUGH OFF NEAR THE DELMARVA EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS SOUTHEAST OF KACY...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS TO 980 HPA. STRONG QG LIFT OCCURS IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE ACROSS MOST THE FCST AREA. THE ECMWF INDICATES POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL 2D PETERRSON FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SRN VT...CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS AXIS. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THEN SEVERAL INCHES OF THE WHITE STUFF IN A HOUR COULD BE POSSIBLE...AS DOCUMENTED IN CSTAR RESEARCH BY NOVAK AT ALL. THE BOTTOM LINE...PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MAY NEED THERE YARD STICKS. THERE COULD BE A TREMENDOUS GRADIENT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MIX AT THIS TIME...AS THE SFC WAVE JUST SOUTH OF KACK. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES ARE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN NORMAL ADVECTING IN LARGE AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. This is what I was telling Mike when he was letting the QPF chart get to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Andy, it's great to have you back posting in our threads! I need all the help I can get lol Indeed it is, Andy. It looks like ALY read your post from earlier today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not me in VT Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I know it's early, our fire chief is overreacting I think. Does anyone think The connecticut shoreline gets anything other than a mixed bag of p type? Even if the euro was to verify? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wrong. ALB has a great forecast team with a great track record. Agreed. They tend to be non-alarmist and measured with their words which makes this AFD particularly exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And Albany is right, the euro would have a great banding signature for the interior..maybe even into ORH and HFD. Yea, wagons west for the jackpot, but I'll take 13-14", followed by a slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It seems like there is an awful lot of hype in the general public about this storm. Its way more than I heard before any of the previous storms this year and this one could be less impactful...pretty strange. It could also be very big, but there is kind of a fine line we're walking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Indeed it is, Andy. It looks like ALY read your post from earlier today! I think I've had a trace or better each day for the last week. 9* degrees and -sn here as well Mike, heavy dusting. We're sitting in a pretty good spot right now. Let's hope the EURO stays the course. 2 more cycles and I'll get stoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It seems like there is an awful lot of hype in the general public about this storm. Its way more than I heard before any of the previous storms this year and this one could be less impactful...pretty strange. It could also be very big, but there is kind of a fine line we're walking. Funny you should say that because I've been hearing the same thing. A bunch of people asked me if we were going to get 30" of snow from this storm... I had no idea where any of that came from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It seems like there is an awful lot of hype in the general public about this storm. Its way more than I heard before any of the previous storms this year and this one could be less impactful...pretty strange. It could also be very big, but there is kind of a fine line we're walking. I think it's because there is a heightened awareness of the magnitude of the winter we are experiencing, thus the more and more of the general public are becoming weenies for a time and the media is catering to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Funny you should say that because I've been hearing the same thing. A bunch of people asked me if we were going to get 30" of snow from this storm... I had no idea where any of that came from. Look to your east/northeast a few miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It seems like there is an awful lot of hype in the general public about this storm. Its way more than I heard before any of the previous storms this year and this one could be less impactful...pretty strange. It could also be very big, but there is kind of a fine line we're walking Its probably because one of the Boston Mets said feet when he mentioned this storm the other day. A few people Ive talked to are expecting a two footer I assumed based on that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It seems like there is an awful lot of hype in the general public about this storm. Its way more than I heard before any of the previous storms this year and this one could be less impactful...pretty strange. It could also be very big, but there is kind of a fine line we're walking. The public hypes everything but yes this is deff. true about this storm. At track yesterday people were honestly expecting 20". They were like "oh yeah another 20" on tuesday I heard?" The only reason for this I can think of is whdh as well as the wbz blog have both mentioned that areas that stay all snow could get 1-2 feet and rival the biggest storm this year. I hope the publics hype is warranted and we do get 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Funny you should say that because I've been hearing the same thing. A bunch of people asked me if we were going to get 30" of snow from this storm... I had no idea where any of that came from. Megan was telling me that her students at school on Friday even....a whole 2 days ago....were asking/saying about how they could get multiple snow days out of this storm the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I know it's early, our fire chief is overreacting I think. Does anyone think The connecticut shoreline gets anything other than a mixed bag of p type? Even if the euro was to verify? Thanks. I think for the CT shore it's too early to be sure. I always count on, however, a large coastal bringing at least some mix. This year? Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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