Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You dont want to be near the mix line when it look like mix and rain wont be a problem, it will be. It would seem to be a bigger problem in some years. The mix line not only has been somewhat poorly modeled as a consensus, but it's almost always ended up on the warmest side of guidance. It hasn't been magnified by these close gradient storms, but one coming out of the GOM...well might be a different story. Every storm is different, the fact it happened several times in one year statistically means very little., especially when you are talking 35 miles. That may or may not be true in this even time will tell, but I think if we look at the progged rain/snow lines as a consensus now versus down the road/at even time we'll find it's further NW. The mean is ever so slightly less amped with the op, but it's fairly neck and neck initially. They really aren't that far off, but the ensembles move it out a bit quicker.There is a wide area of 0.10-0.25" QPF way back to the NW so there must be some decent spread in there. The inner contour of the mean LP is a rather large 992mb too as it passes the BM. Struggle between the SE track and the coast hugger it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Epic winter in progress. Around me, the icicles on homes are a sight to behold. I fear this is going to be known for the year of the ice dams! With more snow this week, that will exacerbate the problem, especially inside 495 where there has been more up and down of temps. Anyway, sounds like the trends are good for at least a significant storm this week. The trend is your friend, I guess! I have some huge ones on the south side of my home. Big winter/spring for ins adjusters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think the 18z NAM missed the memo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think the 18z NAM missed the memo. The whiff. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Funny seeing the 18z NAM miss after the 15z SREFs were so amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I really wish the GFS and NAM were on board..giving me a tiny bit of comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Funny seeing the 18z NAM miss after the 15z SREFs were so amped up. There were quite a few scrapers on the SREFs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I like the Euro ensemble depiction...just inside the BM. Not bad for 84h out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think the 18z NAM missed the memo. LOL, ya think? Boy we keep seeing the off hour poop out on the Gulf s/w. Have to wonder...if the most consistent NW model time and time again this winter is struggling to get this NW.....hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 its the 18z nam at 84...not worried, even though it does make me slightly nervous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I really wish the GFS and NAM were on board..giving me a tiny bit of comfort. The NAM and GFS missing are very comforting..if they were hits now this thing would be a HV runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hasn't been a storm including pre-Christmas where it wasn't leading the NW charge by this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hasn't been a storm including pre-Christmas where it wasn't leading the NW charge by this point. I'd wait another 24h. Its had some flat solutions this year at 84h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I would like to see the GFS with a big hit at 18z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'd wait another 24h. Its had some flat solutions this year at 84h. True and it's on the edge, but in the last 3 storms it's been the furthest NW especially at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I would like to see the GFS with a big hit at 18z lol keep dreaming...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the NAM is not totally out of the question whatever it is at the upper levels, i feel like whats holding it together is hanging by a thread lol and could totally crap the bed any second. having said that seasonal trends FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 DT says rain into BOS?? based on Euro 84 hrs : the LOW is East of Salisbury MD by 50 miles or so... 988 mb maybe 986... western VA still getting hammered as is all of south central and ne PA into the LLower Hudson valley as well... r/s line NORTH of NYC...and has reached Bos +4C Norfolk to BWI to Millville to NYC to Martha's vineyard <LI class="uiUfiComment comment_1949665 ufiItem ufiItem"> Wxrisk.com 90 HRS...Low moves NE... down to 980 mb. Precip has gone over to HEAVY snow over PHL and all of se PA and all of NJ NYC still snowing over eastern 25% of PA and ne PA .. BOS is rain HEAVY snow over Lower Hudson Valley all of CT southern VT southern half of.... moving into sw Maine <LI class="uiUfiComment comment_1949666 ufiItem ufiItem"> <LI class="uiUfiComment comment_1949667 ufiItem ufiItem">Wxrisk.com at 96 hrs still .Moderate snow over New England but heavy over much of maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I feel obligated to post this blog entry from HM...some of the stuff he mentions seems just wrong (for example, he says the clipper moving thru tues is a cold front when it will actually warm up temps, etc.) http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/44821/sunday-afternoon-storm-map-update.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I feel obligated to post this blog entry from HM...some of the stuff he mentions seems just wrong (for example, he says the clipper moving thru tues is a cold front when it will actually warm up temps, etc.) http://www.accuweath...-map-update.asp That is not HM..That is Henry Margusity who stuggles mightily forecasting the weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 DT says rain into BOS?? based on Euro Its close....BOS is on the 32F line and the 850 0C line gets to them...so if BOS didn't flirt with rain at the height, just S of them would. Probably sleet though for anyone below 32F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'll ride the consistency of the Doc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ALB writes the AFD totally naked and recommends anyone reading this loses their pants as well WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF CLOSES THE H500 TROUGH OFF NEAR THE DELMARVA EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS SOUTHEAST OF KACY...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS TO 980 HPA. STRONG QG LIFT OCCURS IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE ACROSS MOST THE FCST AREA. THE ECMWF INDICATES POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL 2D PETERRSON FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SRN VT...CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS AXIS. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THEN SEVERAL INCHES OF THE WHITE STUFF IN A HOUR COULD BE POSSIBLE...AS DOCUMENTED IN CSTAR RESEARCH BY NOVAK AT ALL. THE BOTTOM LINE...PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MAY NEED THERE YARD STICKS. THERE COULD BE A TREMENDOUS GRADIENT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MIX AT THIS TIME...AS THE SFC WAVE JUST SOUTH OF KACK. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES ARE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN NORMAL ADVECTING IN LARGE AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ALB writes the AFD totally naked and recommends anyone reading this loses their pants as well WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF CLOSES THE H500 TROUGH OFF NEAR THE DELMARVA EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS SOUTHEAST OF KACY...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS TO 980 HPA. STRONG QG LIFT OCCURS IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE ACROSS MOST THE FCST AREA. THE ECMWF INDICATES POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL 2D PETERRSON FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SRN VT...CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS AXIS. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THEN SEVERAL INCHES OF THE WHITE STUFF IN A HOUR COULD BE POSSIBLE...AS DOCUMENTED IN CSTAR RESEARCH BY NOVAK AT ALL. THE BOTTOM LINE...PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MAY NEED THERE YARD STICKS. THERE COULD BE A TREMENDOUS GRADIENT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MIX AT THIS TIME...AS THE SFC WAVE JUST SOUTH OF KACK. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES ARE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN NORMAL ADVECTING IN LARGE AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. spelling of "there" automatically questions thought process of the AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ALB writes the AFD totally naked and recommends anyone reading this loses their pants as well WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF CLOSES THE H500 TROUGH OFF NEAR THE DELMARVA EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS SOUTHEAST OF KACY...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS TO 980 HPA. STRONG QG LIFT OCCURS IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE ACROSS MOST THE FCST AREA. THE ECMWF INDICATES POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL 2D PETERRSON FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SRN VT...CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS AXIS. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THEN SEVERAL INCHES OF THE WHITE STUFF IN A HOUR COULD BE POSSIBLE...AS DOCUMENTED IN CSTAR RESEARCH BY NOVAK AT ALL. THE BOTTOM LINE...PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MAY NEED THERE YARD STICKS. THERE COULD BE A TREMENDOUS GRADIENT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MIX AT THIS TIME...AS THE SFC WAVE JUST SOUTH OF KACK. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES ARE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN NORMAL ADVECTING IN LARGE AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. Too bad you'll be in your sleep dreaming about all the sleet you will wake up to with the current timing of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 4pm box update appears that they're riding the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GYX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Uh is the the GGEM the furtherest west? not the euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'll ride the consistency of the Doc. Just got back from riding 100 miles, Looked over the model runs, Take the doctor to the bank, We get crushed, Similar to what 00z had, Gives Northern Maine a little more love at 12z...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I really wish the GFS and NAM were on board..giving me a tiny bit of comfort. wrt to the NAM this year its "power-house" period has been 48hours or less.. The NAM and GFS missing are very comforting..if they were hits now this thing would be a HV runner Agree...never thought I'd agree with you mre than once in a 24hour period. Perhaps Ryan's and my knowledge are seeping into your thought processes. (Even scarier if its true). Hasn't been a storm including pre-Christmas where it wasn't leading the NW charge by this point. See Above, first reply ====== TO me GEFS 12z looks a bit farther west on LP track and mean. Also of interest to me is that of the members that are west of the mean track most are VERY deep wrt to both the GEFS mean and the GFS OPS; ECEM seems to have similar soultions, i.e., members west of both the mean and OP are much deeper. 3 runs in a row on GEFS 850 wind anomaly now of -2 to -3 SD and PWATS +2 to +4. They too have decidely shifted more west across WNE and ENY. Game still on IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Andy, it's great to have you back posting in our threads! I need all the help I can get lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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