Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What's the joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The Euro is snow for almost everyone..with maybe an hour or 2 of sleet into Eastern Mass. BOX is on board for a big hit. Relax dude seriously Yup, I feel like this is playing perfectly into the seasonal pattern. Heavy snow for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Thursday? It's a Wednesday into early Thursday storm Pretty sure overnight modeling has it starting in the wee hours of Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The Euro is snow for almost everyone..with maybe an hour or 2 of sleet into Eastern Mass just like Will, Scooter and Jerry said. BOX is on board for a big hit. Relax dude seriously Kevin--I have no idea what this going to do. In spite of the earlier concerns that this could be a warm storm, I'm more concerned of an OTS scenario. Regardless of my thoughts, I don't think it's fair to say "BOS is on board for a big hit": SO WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? AN AREA OF FAVORABLE PRECIP DVLPMNT WILL OCCUR SEEMS LIKELY ALONG THE NW QUADRANT OF THE CLOSED LOW SYS. WITH SFC-H85 FRZ LINES WOBBLING WITHIN THE PROXIMITY OF BUZZARDS BAY AND CANAL RGN INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND THE PRESENT FCST TRACK OF THE NEARLY STACKED LOW...THE BETTER PRECIP DVLPMNT LOOKS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND PERHAPS MORE OFFSHORE. SNOW STILL IS POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS...WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX IN THE SRN COASTAL PLAIN AND RAIN OUT OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. WITH SUCH A DEEP SYS THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF WIND ASSOC WITH THIS COASTAL STORM AS EVIDENCE FROM PREV MENTIONED LLJ...AND PRESENT TRACK COULD LEND TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The Euro is snow for almost everyone..with maybe an hour or 2 of sleet into Eastern Mass just like Will, Scooter and Jerry said. BOX is on board for a big hit. Relax dude seriously oh i'm very relaxed. i'm okay with a bit of melting. i don't want it but .....we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What's the joke? weenie goggles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 when you have much more confidence than Box/ HPC in this fact.....it is supposed to be re-assuring? lets see where models stand monday and then have this confidence. besides deep down in your non-weenie mind you fear the 0c line isn't gonna hold. admit it rev. those north of the ma/ nh border west of the CP and GC can be confident. others? The Euro is snow for almost everyone..with maybe an hour or 2 of sleet into Eastern Mass just like Will, Scooter and Jerry said. BOX is on board for a big hit. Relax dude seriously Yup, I feel like this is playing perfectly into the seasonal pattern. Heavy snow for many. Here's what I posted over in the NYS thread: GEFS Anomaly Data The anomaly GEFS data is now trending towards a BIG hit. Sort of similar to the "Boxing" Day storm (initially a hit backed off then back to a hit; EC did the same thing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Kevin--I have no idea what this going to do. In spite of the earlier concerns that this could be a warm storm, I'm more concerned of an OTS scenario. Regardless of my thoughts, I don't think it's fair to say "BOS is on board for a big hit": SO WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? AN AREA OF FAVORABLE PRECIP DVLPMNT WILL OCCUR SEEMS LIKELY ALONG THE NW QUADRANT OF THE CLOSED LOW SYS. WITH SFC-H85 FRZ LINES WOBBLING WITHIN THE PROXIMITY OF BUZZARDS BAY AND CANAL RGN INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND THE PRESENT FCST TRACK OF THE NEARLY STACKED LOW...THE BETTER PRECIP DVLPMNT LOOKS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND PERHAPS MORE OFFSHORE. SNOW STILL IS POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS...WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX IN THE SRN COASTAL PLAIN AND RAIN OUT OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. WITH SUCH A DEEP SYS THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF WIND ASSOC WITH THIS COASTAL STORM AS EVIDENCE FROM PREV MENTIONED LLJ...AND PRESENT TRACK COULD LEND TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. You are always worried about a storm going OTS..How many times do we have to go thru this ? You do this before every single storm..every storm hammers you and then the minute the GFS is OTS you throw in the towel and congratulate SE New England. All the mets in this thread have been telling you the bigger worry is mixing than OTS..The storm is coming and it's going to be a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 weenie goggles Because the Euro crushes most? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Here's what I posted over in the NYS thread: GEFS Anomaly Data The anomaly GEFS data is now trending towards a BIG hit. Sort of similar to the "Boxing" Day storm (initially a hit backed off then back to a hit; EC did the same thing). I know I'm certainly "holding". Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You are always worried about a storm going OTS..How many times do we have to go thru this ? You do this before every single storm..every storm hammers you and then the minute the GFS is OTS youi throw in the towel and congratulate SE New England. All the mets in this thread have been telling you the biger worry is mixing than OTS..The storm is coming and it's going to be a big hit Kevin-- While I I said I don't know what the storm's going to do (and OTS a concern), the point of my post was to question your assertion that BOX was on board for a big hit. The AFD I posted suggests that they are far from on board. Doesn't mean they won't be later on, but at this point they are not per the AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If the op GFS is indeed wrong then what is going on with it? It has been extremely shifty for the last month at least. I know the models as of late have all had problems, but it seems by far the worst, and it used to be my favorite model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Kevin-- While I I said I don't know what the storm's going to do (and OTS a concern), the point of my post was to question your assertion that BOX was on board for a big hit. The AFD I posted suggests that they are far from on board. Doesn't mean they won't be later on, but at this point they are not per the AFD. If the storm is remotely close to what he wrote it would be a monster hit..All that technical jargon in there was his way of saying it';s a monster..without actually saying it..if that makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If the op GFS is indeed wrong then what is going on with it? It has been extremely shifty for the last month at least. I know the models as of late have all had problems, but it seems by far the worst, and it used to be my favorite model..What does the Euro show for Portland, ME? I don't know the QPF output for Portland, but it is heavy heavy snow. Big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Because the Euro crushes most? lol...well at face value it doesn't. that's all i'm laughing at. it certainly could end up big. but it's premature to get jacked about it. i mean obviously it's open to interpretation etc. and we can say it would be this or it would be that, but the model (the 00z euro) *verbatim* is nowhere near a crushing for everyone. by h96, essentially the height of the storm...it is warm for a lot of folks. not necessarily YBY, but for a lot of people in the E half of MA, all of RI, parts of CT etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Kevin-- While I I said I don't know what the storm's going to do (and OTS a concern), the point of my post was to question your assertion that BOX was on board for a big hit. The AFD I posted suggests that they are far from on board. Doesn't mean they won't be later on, but at this point they are not per the AFD. mike don't F with the snow. Rev is the industry top lobbyist. He is a Bulldog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't know the QPF output for Portland, but it is heavy heavy snow. Big hit. Yeah, I just dug through last nights thread and found all of the screeching and hollering, so I felt I was in good shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I noticed this as well. I was told it was a Wednesday storm last night but this morning I see it is modeled as a Thursday event, at least here. I don't know what the ramifications are, though I do recall the discussion of 'quicker is better' to take advantage of the fresh antecedent cold. Weds or Thurs makes little difference for us, Would have more of an effect for the folks to the south........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro was a snowbomb here, 1.25"-1.50" all snow........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I find it interesting that euro places the retreating hp right square in a diffluence zone. Wouldn't that result in a decaying hp? It seem there is decent confluence noth of the St. Lawrence. I would think an arm of the hp would hold strong in that location, a la the 06 gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You are always worried about a storm going OTS..How many times do we have to go thru this ? You do this before every single storm..every storm hammers you and then the minute the GFS is OTS you throw in the towel and congratulate SE New England. All the mets in this thread have been telling you the bigger worry is mixing than OTS..The storm is coming and it's going to be a big hit I've started to think this is a reverse psychology method MPM likes to employ. Constantly find tidbits that introduce doubt or hand out early congrats to the Cape or DC. Worry about QPF even when model output shows GC with over 1" QPF. Then, whoa, WSW, heavy snow falling. It's been a good method so far so let's not change it. I for one hold to my thinking that a expansive cyclone passes to the east of the Cape by 20-30 miles, maybe even closer. I agree this will be another big hit. Andy's post is also supportive and I have greaat respect for his thoughts. Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looks a lot slower. And yes, i owuld think earlier would allow for the current cold airmass to come into play. Later? Not so much....... Give me NW with 12z please. If I were you I'd be hoping for a status quo track for now. The NW trend we want will show up closer to launch time. Don't want it to start to soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 THE BETTER PRECIP DVLPMNT LOOKS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND PERHAPS MORE OFFSHORE. What I was saying yesterday. SNOW STILL IS POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS Not what I'm saying. WTF do they mean "still possible" and they also lowered POPs over the interior. Makes no sense at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This is all sounding incredibly complicated bc of that stupid hp on its way out. Way back in the beginning when this storm was first modeled it was really an offshore storm just possibly grazing esne. For several days its been a lot closer and we all know from left to right the track possibilities. If the meat of this is coming no sooner than late Tues or early Wed, I would not put too much stock in anything until midday tomorrow at the earliest.. At work last night I heard people talking about crazy snow totals, where do they get this information and why would any one in the public be throwing out numbers like that five days in advance???? It is just sheer insanity. No doubt there will be a good storm, no doubt it will be a big storm but A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF DOUBT EXISTS AS TO WHERE THE HEAVY SNOW WILL BE AND FOR THAT MATTER PTYPE ISSUES AS WELL. It is stupidly cold out though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 OK Will, what are you thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 THE BETTER PRECIP DVLPMNT LOOKS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND PERHAPS MORE OFFSHORE. What I was saying yesterday. SNOW STILL IS POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS Not what I'm saying. WTF do they mean "still possible" and they also lowered POPs over the interior. Makes no sense at all. I think they are saying.. "we have no effing clue What this system will bring, lets lower pops for the hell of it" It amazes me that nws has failed to recognize the seasonal NW trend around 42-72 hours out. Especially when its happened the last 5 storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i would LOVE to see it crush ct with big snows . with 2 ft of snow on the ground and piles of snow so big that we have to pull out slow onto rds because we cant see cars coming down the rds . but another big snow storm now with another 2 ft has not happened here in 50 yrs with all this snow on the ground .and the signs now are pointing to a big mix with a track to close to the coast bringing in warm air changing it to rain . lets all hope for a track shift east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Dude there's gonna be very little rain with this away from SE Mass...It's a snow storm for 95% of SNE..and a major one at that Way more complicated than that. I have legit concerns about what happened at 06z and the 09z SREF. Something new was seen on those suites. Even on the amped up solutions that give a lot of precip, there is plenty of mid-level warmth to be concerned about. Euro gave you a ton of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Way more complicated than that. I have legit concerns about what happened at 06z and the 09z SREF. Something new was seen on those suites. Even on the amped up solutions that give a lot of precip, there is plenty of mid-level warmth to be concerned about. Euro gave you a ton of sleet. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 FWIW the 9z SREF"S are still "exit stage right". Big circulation does give SE SNE a decent hit though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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