dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Man.... The SREFs are A LOT slower and look to be A LOT more west and amped up than last run. Pretty Damn good NW run here... compared to last run.... You know the storm is going to be a monster when the SREF mean is spitting out a 2" contour zone... Try comparing the same time intervals next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Isn't Plymouth in somewhat of a snow shadow? Vs other areas along 93? Jerry, Plymouth gets shadowed with downsloping in N/ NW events. I live 7 miles south of Plymouth and 800 feet higher. I do well with NE flow events as the land to my east is lower and air is being forced upwards onto my 1500 ridge. My main concern all along with this storm was to far SE to really get us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I was up last night reading Scooters analysis of the Euro, by the way that Dr No stuff is so 10 , he pointed out reasons why this was a snow bomb not a sleet festival. Today we have Ray and KeV mentioning it in every post. I will stick with Scooters analysis, anyway we will see what the Euro brings but not expecting much change. You guys have to be careful interpreting stuff. I posted that BOS may be mostly sn due possible dynamics and the euro maybe being a degree or so too warm. I never said it was a snowbomb for all. I guess I have to word everything more carefully because I don't want what I or anyone else says misinterpreted. People seem to do that a lot around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 As do I..and trust me..living in the sleet capital of New Eng..when they speak I listen. I think there was drunk model interpretation last nite that may have tainted towards more snow than what it was actually showing LOL, no there wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Try comparing the same time intervals next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 EC ens mean not far from the op through 78hr, but then the sfc low moves due ENE and over the BM by 90hr. So how does that compare to the OP? "but then" implies it's not following the same track? Thanks Brian. You guys have to be careful interpreting stuff. I posted that BOS may be mostly sn due possible dynamics and the euro maybe being a degree or so too warm. I never said it was a snowbomb for all. I guess I have to word everything more carefully because I don't want what I or anyone else says misinterpreted. People seem to do that a lot around here. Sometimes for just entertainment purposes too. I never read anything that you wrote where I thought it meant a snowbomb for all, figured I missed something private. Glad you clarified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You guys have to be careful interpreting stuff. I posted that BOS may be mostly sn due possible dynamics and the euro maybe being a degree or so too warm. I never said it was a snowbomb for all. I guess I have to word everything more carefully because I don't want what I or anyone else says misinterpreted. People seem to do that a lot around here. Good point. And just because someone comments on a model run (which is what we do around here) doesn't imply that is what we think will ultimately happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ray, do you have a website that has a history of snow OTG? This site is good; find you nearest station and be sure to check snowfall and depth before going to the table: http://climate.usurf.usu.edu/products/data.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good point. And just because someone comments on a model run (which is what we do around here) doesn't imply that is what we think will ultimately happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 EC ens mean not far from the op through 78hr, but then the sfc low moves due ENE and over the BM by 90hr. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I was just emailing back and forth with a pro that doesn't post here for business reasons (not sure this person can per contract)...but anyway the person was saying just that. The seasonal trend may not be denied here and that we have no reason to think this is going to be any different this time. When we had unanimous consensus among the globals/ens that the track would be near the BM to a position just SE of ACK the low ran up Buzzards Bay over the canal. When we had unanimous consent it would be seaward and miss back before Christmas at this range we got a 7-14" snowstorm down here. When we've had middle solutions/eastern Cape tracks, we end up with low tucking further west to our south which allowed the warmth in here. The track record speaks for itself but most not living here are too busy shoveling to notice. One blizzard warning, and two winter storm warnings based on the preponderance of all the data medium to short range and the net result was a lot of wet not white because they find a way to sneak NW/warmer each time. Just food for thought, maybe this time is different but you and I have both been "on the fence" temp wise 2-3 times only to watch the r/s line blow by us in a flash. You don't want to be near the mix line with these models, every single time this year it ticks NW in tight. [/quot You dont want to be near the mix line when it look like mix and rain wont be a problem, it will be. It would seem to be a bigger problem in some years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You guys have to be careful interpreting stuff. I posted that BOS may be mostly sn due possible dynamics and the euro maybe being a degree or so too warm. I never said it was a snowbomb for all. I guess I have to word everything more carefully because I don't want what I or anyone else says misinterpreted. People seem to do that a lot around here. Thank you. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I was just emailing back and forth with a pro that doesn't post here for business reasons (not sure this person can per contract)...but anyway the person was saying just that. The seasonal trend may not be denied here and that we have no reason to think this is going to be any different this time. When we had unanimous consensus among the globals/ens that the track would be near the BM to a position just SE of ACK the low ran up Buzzards Bay over the canal. When we had unanimous consent it would be seaward and miss back before Christmas at this range we got a 7-14" snowstorm down here. When we've had middle solutions/eastern Cape tracks, we end up with low tucking further west to our south which allowed the warmth in here. The track record speaks for itself but most not living here are too busy shoveling to notice. One blizzard warning, and two winter storm warnings based on the preponderance of all the data medium to short range and the net result was a lot of wet not white because they find a way to sneak NW/warmer each time. Just food for thought, maybe this time is different but you and I have both been "on the fence" temp wise 2-3 times only to watch the r/s line blow by us in a flash. You don't want to be near the mix line with these models, every single time this year it ticks NW in tight. Every storm is different, the fact it happened several times in one year statistically means very little., especially when you are talking 35 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Lol...well im just sayin. If I post about the gfs...it's not because im a gfs hugger or because i think it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You guys have to be careful interpreting stuff. I posted that BOS may be mostly sn due possible dynamics and the euro maybe being a degree or so too warm. I never said it was a snowbomb for all. I guess I have to word everything more carefully because I don't want what I or anyone else says misinterpreted. People seem to do that a lot around here. Does it really matter? I can not go off topic so I reread what you posted, a lot was jest to being weenied but it's cool.Sorry will not fool around again count on it. Someone unamed posted dynamics does not affect sleet. Enjoy your snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Checking the Euro Skew Ts, I don't see the temp on any layers crossing the 0C isotherm during the storm for my coordinates. The maps are misleading. Could you check IJD for me, thank you in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Does it really matter? I can not go off topic so I reread what you posted, a lot was jest to being weenied but it's cool.Sorry will not fool around again count on it. Someone unamed posted dynamics does not affect sleet. Enjoy your snow. Looks like we got the old man riled up....us ftw, you ftl. Gotcha. EPIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So how does that compare to the OP? "but then" implies it's not following the same track? Thanks Brian. The mean is ever so slightly less amped with the op, but it's fairly neck and neck initially. They really aren't that far off, but the ensembles move it out a bit quicker.There is a wide area of 0.10-0.25" QPF way back to the NW so there must be some decent spread in there. The inner contour of the mean LP is a rather large 992mb too as it passes the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This site is good; find you nearest station and be sure to check snowfall and depth before going to the table:http://climate.usurf...oducts/data.php thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Personally I still think this tracks very close to or over the coast. There's not much blocking and this is an intense s/w so once it starts to develop there's not going to be much to stop the positive feedback and amplify this thing up the coast. Euro is damn close to doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Personally I still think this tracks very close to or over the coast. There's not much blocking and this is an intense s/w so once it starts to develop there's not going to be much to stop the positive feedback and amplify this thing up the coast. Euro is damn close to doing that. You mean like the latest ETA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looks like we got the old man riled up....us ftw, you ftl. Gotcha. EPIC La Epic to you shorty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wow, WC warning up in my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wow, WC warning up in my hood. Wind starting cranking here, dark clouds, oops wrong thread, damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You mean like the latest ETA? Yeah similar in track to that, but the Eta looks sort of funny later in the run because the low gets fairly compact relative to other models. More like a Euro/GEM compromise.. GEM likely way overdone but Euro could be under doing things a bit. We've seen the Euro do that a bit recently. GFS is just out to lunch so I'm not even looking at it until it gets a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Epic winter in progress. Around me, the icicles on homes are a sight to behold. I fear this is going to be known for the year of the ice dams! With more snow this week, that will exacerbate the problem, especially inside 495 where there has been more up and down of temps. Anyway, sounds like the trends are good for at least a significant storm this week. The trend is your friend, I guess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I like the Syzygy poster name, cool, March is not far away. ETA is bunk, Euro is consistent, got to go with the King on this one, the path makes perfect sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah similar in track to that, but the Eta looks sort of funny later in the run because the low gets fairly compact relative to other models. More like a Euro/GEM compromise.. GEM likely way overdone but Euro could be under doing things a bit. We've seen the Euro do that a bit recently. GFS is just out to lunch so I'm not even looking at it until it gets a clue. When... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Epic winter in progress. Around me, the icicles on homes are a sight to behold. I fear this is going to be known for the year of the ice dams! With more snow this week, that will exacerbate the problem, especially inside 495 where there has been more up and down of temps. Anyway, sounds like the trends are good for at least a significant storm this week. The trend is your friend, I guess! Yea the ice jams are four inches thick on all my gutters, the house was making cracking sounds like a pond does . I am having trouble not bantering, habit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 When... I believe on both of the last two storms some of the Euro runs were a little underdone. Especially on the first storm. The point is I wouldn't even consider the GFS very much at all at this point. I think sometimes at least for me the tendency is to think the that since the GFS is so far east, the Euro won't come any farther west. In reality, when the GFS is so far out to lunch it doesn't count for anything because it will just make a huge correction at some point. So I think there is a very good possibility the Euro will come a little farther west. Once the NAM and some of the hi-res models start to get the general idea correct then we can start to compare them to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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