weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ok...time for a dog walk in the ice cold woods. My wife takes over duties tomorrow which should be mighty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Okay got ya... but yeah some of the snowpiles in woburn where i dropped off a friend from BA was like quebec-esque. It was insane. Cant wait to upload the pictures I took during my insane drive home during the storm friday. Yea, I know what you meant....it was confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 how narrow is the sleet band depicted on the EURO? e.g., would ETauntonMA / cpick / messenger all be pinging (no rain)? I'm rain, Phil is borderline margarita weather.....for at least a short time before it all crashes SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yea, again - the Euro backs my call earlier: 10-20 with a couple of spot 24" totals, particularly in any meso band that is not going to be modeled by even the NAM and ECM mechanics. Also, another chance for some kind of Miller B or Miller B entanglement with the southern stream around D7, and yet another threat looms D10+ on this run - all of which are still in the plausibility index layout that I outlined in that scrolled thread from yesterday. Incredible winter stretch continues - probably the best most will experience in many years. ORH needs 15 to break it's snowiest month ever I believe and the 12z NAM extrapolation/blend with the Euro should hit that pretty close by Thursday (check this) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Boy is that a feigned concern! lol LOL, it's a real concern. I could see this tacking west enough that even here we could get pingers. I don't think that is likely at this point but I'd almost prefer to see a track farther to the east at this point. If this decided to charge NW in the final hours, as many storms this season have, we could quickly find ourselves tainted. It could be the difference between 12-24" or 6-12".lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'd like to see a 35" depth by friday. That would be pretty cool. Hopefully the ec shows this area getting hit hard too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Glad to see that mixing will be short lived, lets hope that stays the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm rain, Phil is borderline margarita weather.....for at least a short time before it all crashes SE. This is not our year The GFS has been the beacon of false hope all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The only time mby has seen that, at least on record, is Feb 1969.....40" depth. its pretty awesome that you have a REAL shot at that this year. record snowdepths trump historic snowstorms in my book. i hope you pull it off. im still holding out hope for MBY too. we just need about 3 solid hits to make a run, lots of time left with a steadily building pack already and no warmth in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 its pretty awesome that you have a REAL shot at that this year. record snowdepths trump historic snowstorms in my book. i hope you pull it off. im still holding out hope for MBY too. we just need about 3 solid hits to make a run, lots of time left with a steadily building pack already and no warmth in sight. I think overunning snow systems > one big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I never guestimate snow cover. To me, its' either deep or not. 22 vs 16 inches doesn't mean much after the storm passes in my eyes. But that said, I'd have to drive west to really get an idea. Next Saturday will be ideal because I'll come out RT 9 to the GTG and will go through Newton, Wellesley, Natick, Framingham, into ORH CTY. Yeah, W. Ma has had close to 30" in the past 2-3 weeks yet snow pack is about half that due to compacting etc. The deeper, measured snow pack in Boston metro is the result of much more qpf even if total measured snow accumulation has not been that much higher. High water content snow pack will only compact so far and doesn't get swept away by high wind. We had 4" from friday's storm but any exposed fields now have a practically 0 gain due to the winds that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'd like to see a 35" depth by friday. That would be pretty cool. Hopefully the ec shows this area getting hit hard too. This run absolutely crushes your new area...wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 its pretty awesome that you have a REAL shot at that this year. record snowdepths trump historic snowstorms in my book. i hope you pull it off. im still holding out hope for MBY too. we just need about 3 solid hits to make a run, lots of time left with a steadily building pack already and no warmth in sight. Like I said, outside of CC, 3'+ snowpacks are probably rarer in my area than anywhere else in the state, save for maybe the floor of the CT valley....I'm stuck in between.....too low in elevation and close to the ocean for the ORH co benefit, yet a bit too far from the ocean to reap oes benefits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 its pretty awesome that you have a REAL shot at that this year. record snowdepths trump historic snowstorms in my book. i hope you pull it off. im still holding out hope for MBY too. we just need about 3 solid hits to make a run, lots of time left with a steadily building pack already and no warmth in sight. That's the focus for me right now. Within striking distance of epic snow depths. If we can keep piling it on....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah, W. Ma has had close to 30" in the past 2-3 weeks yet snow pack is about half that due to compacting etc. The deeper, measured snow pack in Boston metro is the result of much more qpf even if total measured snow accumulation has not been that much higher. High water content snow pack will only compact so far and doesn't get swept away by high wind. We had 4" from friday's storm but any exposed fields now have a practically 0 gain due to the winds that night. CT.Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This is not our year The GFS has been the beacon of false hope all winter long. It has. Kev/CT Blizz was absolutely right earlier in saying there was nothing to worry about with the 6z. What's odd/it figures type of deal is we may have a track 50-100 miles SE of the norm this year and STILL get rain. From a climo standpoint I think I'm way better than a normal year, but it is what it is. There's still plenty of time and agreement hasn't meant a ton this year. Keep in mind at 4 days we have seen the Euro/GFS and Ensembles track near the BM almost every time and that's not been the case, the lows end well NW. Maybe once there's wiggle room. Scott's analogy about the needle is dead on. There's still plenty of time/mechanisms for this to go way away from our favor (you and I) or to come around and be a better snow hit for us. But it's hard to beat the consistency this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah, W. Ma has had close to 30" in the past 2-3 weeks yet snow pack is about half that due to compacting etc. The deeper, measured snow pack in Boston metro is the result of much more qpf even if total measured snow accumulation has not been that much higher. High water content snow pack will only compact so far and doesn't get swept away by high wind. We had 4" from friday's storm but any exposed fields now have a practically 0 gain due to the winds that night. Excellent point, which is why in the long run, the heavy rain I saw Tues night may hold an advg....despite costing me 3-4" in the near term. The lower 14" of my snowpack is inpenetrable concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 CT.Valley. I don't even count you as part of sne....your climo is more representative of VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 still not looking for good snow for ct more like a mix with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 still not looking for good snow for ct more like a mix with rain We're all good, don't worry. All frozen at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It has. Kev/CT Blizz was absolutely right earlier in saying there was nothing to worry about with the 6z. What's odd/it figures type of deal is we may have a track 50-100 miles SE of the norm this year and STILL get rain. From a climo standpoint I think I'm way better than a normal year, but it is what it is. There's still plenty of time and agreement hasn't meant a ton this year. Keep in mind at 4 days we have seen the Euro/GFS and Ensembles track near the BM almost every time and that's not been the case, the lows end well NW. Maybe once there's wiggle room. Scott's analogy about the needle is dead on. There's still plenty of time/mechanisms for this to go way away from our favor (you and I) or to come around and be a better snow hit for us. But it's hard to beat the consistency this year. Yeah, if the seasonal trend wasn't even denied WITH a huge -NAO block.. money says that with weakening/east based one it may even get closer than currently progged. something to watch... but still pulling for the ensembles to be right for once this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ek, do you have the 12z EURO snowfall algorythm map...... Ens should be out, soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Checking the Euro Skew Ts, I don't see the temp on any layers crossing the 0C isotherm during the storm for my coordinates. The maps are misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 still not looking for good snow for ct more like a mix with rain You have no idea what you're talking about..There isn't any rain anywhere in CT lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You have no idea what you're talking about..There isn't any rain anywhere in CT lol He just wanted someone to tell him otherwise without directly asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah, if the seasonal trend wasn't even denied WITH a huge -NAO block.. money says that with weakening/east based one it may even get closer than currently progged. something to watch... but still pulling for the ensembles to be right for once this far out. I was just emailing back and forth with a pro that doesn't post here for business reasons (not sure this person can per contract)...but anyway the person was saying just that. The seasonal trend may not be denied here and that we have no reason to think this is going to be any different this time. When we had unanimous consensus among the globals/ens that the track would be near the BM to a position just SE of ACK the low ran up Buzzards Bay over the canal. When we had unanimous consent it would be seaward and miss back before Christmas at this range we got a 7-14" snowstorm down here. When we've had middle solutions/eastern Cape tracks, we end up with low tucking further west to our south which allowed the warmth in here. The track record speaks for itself but most not living here are too busy shoveling to notice. One blizzard warning, and two winter storm warnings based on the preponderance of all the data medium to short range and the net result was a lot of wet not white because they find a way to sneak NW/warmer each time. Just food for thought, maybe this time is different but you and I have both been "on the fence" temp wise 2-3 times only to watch the r/s line blow by us in a flash. You don't want to be near the mix line with these models, every single time this year it ticks NW in tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Man.... The SREFs are A LOT slower (Not sure here...) and look to be A LOT more west and amped up than last run. Pretty Damn good NW run here... compared to last run.... You know the storm is going to be a monster when the SREF mean is spitting out a 2" contour zone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Like I said, outside of CC, 3'+ snowpacks are probably rarer in my area than anywhere else in the state, save for maybe the floor of the CT valley....I'm stuck in between.....too low in elevation and close to the ocean for the ORH co benefit, yet a bit too far from the ocean to reap oes benefits. Ray, do you have a website that has a history of snow OTG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You have no idea what you're talking about..There isn't any rain anywhere in CT lol Hey CTBlizz... meant to comment the other day but I was in a rush, those snowbanks along the sides of your driveway, really cool stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 EC ens mean not far from the op through 78hr, but then the sfc low moves due ENE and over the BM by 90hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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