weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Back at a computer. Looking at this, I think that's alot of snow for Boston with sleet not a guarantee but probable at least in mixing. And snow after this system goes by. What a run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Talk to me about winds. Looks fookin' windy. No more, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Nice prolonged inverted trough event from 156h to 186h...the clipper coming out of the lakes that didn't give us much on previous runs grabs the escaping moisture from the low out to sea around 150h and gives us a decent little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Talk to me about winds. there will be wind. if the euro would slow down a bit, it would probably be a snow bomb for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That pertains more to the ma imo. Yeah it hangs a right up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Most towns are having trouble. HFD is having major problems with all the snow..They have more OTG than BOS BOS is far more compact over a wider area though. BOS metro that is. Either way big trouble IF the Euro has any skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 there will be wind. if the euro would slow down a bit, it would probably be a snow bomb for all. How low does pressure get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The ULL toward the weekend digs a lot more S through the GL. We have another low forming off the coast and heading OTS, but it's way NW from the 00z run. It begins to feel the tug from the ULL and we get a prolonged inverted trough setup for ENE. We're getting snow in a variety of ways. I think it would be great to include a several day stretch of light/moderate snows to this Winter's resume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 How low does pressure get? looks a shade under 980 i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 looks a shade under 980 i think Wasn't that about what Boxing day was? If so that means major winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looks like about 1.4" of QPF, all snow imby.....maybe a hair better than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That pertains more to the ma imo. I agree but obviously a more western track into/on the Jersey coast before a turn would have a big impact potential for the CP. It's interesting to me that a lot of pro's from NYC south here and on other forums think this is going further west for whatever reason/at least as it pertains up to NYC. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 How low does pressure get? 980 se of ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looks like about 1.4" of QPF, all snow imby.....maybe a hair better than 10:1. What do have on the ground now? I was about 36-38" in both 96 and 05 I think. 05 may have been a hair deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I agree but obviously a more western track into/on the Jersey coast before a turn would have a big impact potential for the CP. It's interesting to me that a lot of pro's from NYC south here and on other forums think this is going further west for whatever reason/at least as it pertains up to NYC. . It's all persective....down there it is a hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What do have on the ground now? I was about 36-38" in both 96 and 05 I think. 05 may have been a hair deeper. About 20-21". I hit about 30" in 1996....2005 wasn't quite that high, nor was 2001. My area stinks for crazy depth because I'm too close to the ocean with not enough elevation for years like 2001 and too far from the ocean for years like 1994, 2005 and to a lesser extent, 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The NYC storm thread has 450 people right now vs. our 130, thats more then the mid atlantic had leading up to their storms last year, more then we have ever had. Wow. s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What do have on the ground now? I was about 36-38" in both 96 and 05 I think. 05 may have been a hair deeper. In Brockton? That is much more than attleboro, we maxed 28-33". 38" is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wasn't that about what Boxing day was? If so that means major winds I think Boxing Day dropped under 970mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 In Brockton? That is much more than attleboro, we maxed 28-33". 38" is nuts. Parts of Brockton had just about 40" in 1996...over to the Whitman area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 General overview and thoughts (NH focus)... Split flow, originating over the northern Rockies, extends across the midwest, and then converges to our south, underneath a deep cold upper level vortex (associated with the much below normal temperatures) A disturbance in the flow will be diving out of western Canada, and splitting with the flow, with the northern energy sweeping across the upper Midwest, and the southern energy diving into Texas by Monday evening. The northern disturbance will move across the Great Lakes Tuesday morning as it is damped (weakened) beneath the departing vortex. Weakening low pressure at the surface will move across southern Ontario, as high pressure retreats, yeilding return flow out of the southwest across the region. This will advect warmer temperatures northward, resulting in weak lift and a shield of light snow during the day Tuesday. Expect light snow to move into the state from west to east between 5am and 8am. A couple inches of accumulation is likely by the time the snow wraps up Tuesday evening as winds veer to the west, ending the warm advection. The weakened disturbance will not produce much in the way of cold advection upstream and thus our arctic airmass will be "tainted" and no longer "fresh". Meanwhile, model guidance is in agreement on the southern stream disturbance amplifying and tightening considerably over the deep south Tuesday evening, with strengthening surface low moving out of the northern Gulf of Mexico, spreading a vast shield of precipitation across the southeast states. Model guidance is also in agreement that high pressure will be completely scoured out of New England by the northern disturbance and with minimal upper level confluence behind it, there is no mechanism to fight against the onslaught of warm air associated with the southern disturbance. This is about where agreement ends and uncertainty begins. The problem lies with a number of disturbances in the flow upstream that will be moving through the midwest as our storm turns up the coast. The timing and intensity of the storm and all these features will dictate the track of the coastal low. There is a fairly good consensus, barring model biases, that snow will move into the state from south to northeast Wednesday afternoon. The northwest extent of the precipitation shield as well as the precipitation type is more uncertain. There are a number of possible senarios including even precipitation changing to rain (as incredible as that sounds, following this arctic airmass), or the storm heading out to sea, or a significant snow storm. At this point, I think the out to sea senario is least likely, and the potential for a significant snow storm is gaining more ground. In all cases, precipitation will start as snow, triggered by overrunning warm air ahead of the storm. A light snow accumulation can be expected through midnight Wednesday night for at least the southern half of the state. Extreme southeast NH toward the coast may have to worry about mixing with rain as prolonged easterlies advect warm air off the ocean. In addition, the extent of mid level warming could result in snow mixing with sleet into southern NH by Thursday morning. At the same time, there is still some uncertainty on the northwest extent of the precipitation shield and there will likely be a sharp gradient in accumulations. At this point I would say the best chance for heavy snowfall lies from the Monadnocks into interior (central) eastern NH, where >6" appears most likely. The upstream disturbances will sweep through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Thursday, shoving the coastal storm and associated precipitation east, out of New England by midday. This storm will be provided with copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic, and as the low deepens, this moisture will wrap into the cold sector (again, the timing of this transition is uncertain). The potential exists for significant snow accumulations ... somewhere in the northeast United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Parts of Brockton had just about 40" in 1996...over to the Whitman area. Thru west brockton into easton, parts of foxboro, sharon and canton too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think Boxing Day dropped under 970mb. Yeah like 964? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Parts of Brockton had just about 40" in 1996...over to the Whitman area. Yep. There was a coastal that had a sick OES band , we had around 18-20" in N.A. which was great and we got into the banding, but that small Easton/Avon/Brockton etc area had 24"+ where it held on the longest and also a final ocean band moved through adding 2-6" which hit the S shore harder. TV mets didn't know what to say, it was supposed to be a 12-18" max deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My favorite part of working at stop & shop before a storm and hearing all the different personal forecasts. One guy says it'll be single digits and at least 2' of snow while one woman says rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Sounds like its a little faster then gfs/nam? Starting 18z Wed and ending between 12z and 18z thurs? I would love an 18z start time--that might allow me to postpone my 1:00p.m. meeting in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Instead of the south shore having 4" of wet snow over to 35 and rain. Its 4" of snow, and then 34 degrees and rain. Awesome lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro doesn't even look too bad for coastal CT. This is not a favorable setup for here and we will mix...but at least the 12z would keep most of this frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W1WFG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The potential exists for significant snow accumulations ... somewhere in the northeast United States. You used to work for that oracle at Delphi, didn't you? I recognize the prose style.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Instead of the south shore having 4" of wet snow over to 35 and rain. Its 4" of snow, and then 34 degrees and rain. Awesome lol Euro verbatim says your rain will be somewhat short lived and you go back to a significant snow thump in the final hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.