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January 26-27 Storm Threat - II


Baroclinic Zone

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2 more snow days for schools/work this week FTW

Hopefully like Will and Scooter said the cold pinches off that brief warm layer

If the colder/ snowier progs come to fruition, there won't be any school in BOS for awhile. Just cannot handle the snow there.

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You can see how the mid-levels resist to warming a little more each run. It looked like for a second they would try to blow our doors off well into SNE but its like they hit a brick wall in CT/RI. 5h track argues for limited intrusion of warm air as well, it manages to stay S and E of us.

So as long as those features don't come well NW, I wouldn't be surprised to see it cool off a bit more.

Climo wise, my area is very resistent to mid level warming.....if the low levels are not a factor, than I feel good because those are my nemesis.

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2 more snow days for schools/work this week FTW

Hopefully like Will and Scooter said the cold pinches off that brief warm layer

If we can get this to start maybe 10am Wednesday instead of later in the afternoon then yes I think wed/thu will both be snow days FTW...school until June 25th FTL. oh well Id rather have the snow.

Sounds like I avoid the sleet by literally a few miles, on this run.

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Of course the hope is that it doesn't come further west. That would hurt a lot more people. I could see both a hair west and a hair east. I hope it doesn't go to ACK, but I would not be shocked of it does.

One would think the needle is starting to pin WRT track but I'm still concerned with a tighter to the coast pass. Seems like a net gain is likely here now though.

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That's after occlusion. I'm more concerned about the 90h period the most. I know it's a snow/sleet/snow scenario, but does the surface warm enough for rain or is it dynamic enough for mostly sleet?

Sfc frz line runs like BOD-PVD at 90f with the 40F line over messenger's house.

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Of course the hope is that it doesn't come further west. That would hurt a lot more people. I could see both a hair west and a hair east. I hope it doesn't go to ACK, but I would not be shocked if it does.

this run is a nice one. noticeably colder from your area and pts. west. there is so much less mid-level warming it's not out of the question that a lot of MA (my area obviously excluded) would stay all snow on that particular run.

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That's after occlusion. I'm more concerned about the 90h period the most. I know it's a snow/sleet/snow scenario, but does the surface warm enough for rain or is it dynamic enough for mostly sleet?

I read at the other site that the rain would get inland a "fair" amount not sure what that means but I took it as around you or just to your east. As one of the other red taggers said and I still kind of agree is a possibility:

"The 12z Euro is close to the synoptic forecast I've had out since Friday. With little blocking and the H5 low going negative tilt early across the Deep South, the eventual track of the low should be closer to the coast/farther inland than what we've seen over the last two winters. I don't think I am alone in those ideas amongst the red taggers here, either. "

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Staccato of Storms. AWT.

The ULL toward the weekend digs a lot more S through the GL. We have another low forming off the coast and heading OTS, but it's way NW from the 00z run. It begins to feel the tug from the ULL and we get a prolonged inverted trough setup for ENE.
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I read at the other site that the rain would get inland a "fair" amount not sure what that means but I took it as around you or just to your east. As one of the other red taggers said and I still kind of agree is a possibility:

"The 12z Euro is close to the synoptic forecast I've had out since Friday. With little blocking and the H5 low going negative tilt early across the Deep South, the eventual track of the low should be closer to the coast/farther inland than what we've seen over the last two winters. I don't think I am alone in those ideas amongst the red taggers here, either. "

That pertains more to the ma imo.

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