weatherMA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Sounds like its a little faster then gfs/nam? Starting 18z Wed and ending between 12z and 18z thurs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Not warm though Ryan? , warm implies ouchness, correct? Yea this is a big dog. It's not as warm as 0z and is really close to a huge snow bomb for my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Sounds like its a little faster then gfs/nam? Starting 18z Wed and ending between 12z and 18z thurs? AWT..NAM wayyyy too slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Probably...I could see the sleet line kissing a KGAY-KORH line at the very peak, but fairly negligible in impact if it did. It would either be 90% snow or 100% snow for our areas. Its a great solution for the interior north fo the pike. But even south of the pike, there's some decent snow right at the beginning and then the final CCB gets them too after getting pelted with sleet in between for 10 hours. I could see this turning into a region-wide sleet bomb at the last moment...have to watch that, but I am PUMPED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LOL..sleet isn't overcome by dynamics. I'd suggest you invest in a helmet Got one for skiing, out shoveling the sand with it on fmw, wow what a bomb, tippy FTW, Jerry 01 35 SE FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Sorry about that....timing diffs make it tough to discern when we are trying to play-by-play it. It is DEFINITELY a hair colder and se. Its fine, I don't mind and its kind of funny actually. I figure it out eventually. Sounds like a nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 can someone do a detailed analysis of qpf amounts for: KRUT- K1v4 (st. j) VT- KBML- KLEB- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I could see this turning into a region-wide sleet bomb at the last moment...have to watch that, but I'm gonna PUMP one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It's not as warm as 0z and is really close to a huge snow bomb for my backyard. Sfc temps being so cold are kind of a red flag to me...in terms of I could see the mid-levels inching colder and colder as we get closer assuming the track doesn't deviate well west. It already came in just a pinch colder than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I am not concerned about those 06z runs now. It's coming. 6z was indeed a faht....very happy to see that. Man what a winter... BWIOCoTFTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm all snow. With minimal melting/sublimination, could have snowpack > '05! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> Thanks Will....big net gain it seems...that is the important thing to me. I'd call hitting the lottery a net gain, yea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 102hr....some more lighter accumulations for ENE. Heavier accums for ME. 1" QPF runs MLT-BML-RUT. All of SNE over 1". How does it look for PWM points east. Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I could see this turning into a region-wide sleet bomb at the last moment...have to watch that, but I am PUMPED. It also has colder 700mb temps as compared to 00z. This may mean that the warm layer on this run is muted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Can we lock 12+ for some areas yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 With minimal melting/sublimination, could have snowpack > '05! I'm already about on par with it....this soloution would have me rivaling 1995-96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Sfc temps being so cold are kind of a red flag to me...in terms of I could see the mid-levels inching colder and colder as we get closer assuming the track doesn't deviate well west. It already came in just a pinch colder than 00z. Agreed. That was the first thing I look for. With the cold surface temps, it's a good "foundation" to build on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 So how bad is it down this way W of the Canal? I'm assuming CC/Islands are toast(rain) on this run but it sounds as thought the 0C 850 line only gets to about I-95 and the surface temps are colder. Just askin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 can someone do a detailed analysis of qpf amounts for: KRUT- K1v4 (st. j) VT- KBML- KLEB- RUT...hair under 1.00"1V4...0.50" BML...1.00" LEB...1.00" The gradient pretty much hits VT and extreme N ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 How does it look for PWM points east. Thanks in advance! Well everyone S and E of that line is 1"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 RUT...hair under 1.00" 1V4...0.50" BML...1.00" LEB...1.00" The gradient pretty much hits VT and extreme N ME. Alrighty still a decent storm for NE VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 How does it look for PWM points east. Thanks in advance! Euro says fill the feeders on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 AWT..NAM wayyyy too slow So how bad is it down this way W of the Canal? I'm assuming CC/Islands are toast(rain) on this run but it sounds as thought the 0C 850 line only gets to about I-95 and the surface temps are colder. Just askin'. Euro at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Can we lock 12+ for some areas yet? I'm optimistic for you and me seeing that, but I'm much more optimistic for Western CT, GC, and NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Agreed. That was the first thing I look for. With the cold surface temps, it's a good "foundation" to build on. You can see how the mid-levels resist to warming a little more each run. It looked like for a second they would try to blow our doors off well into SNE but its like they hit a brick wall in CT/RI. 5h track argues for limited intrusion of warm air as well, it manages to stay S and E of us. So as long as those features don't come well NW, I wouldn't be surprised to see it cool off a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 2 more snow days for schools/work this week FTW Hopefully like Will and Scooter said the cold pinches off that brief warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Can we lock 12+ for some areas yet? If not for the sleet, sure...it's a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The big run of the EURO comes through in a big way. That puts us inside the 100hr mark still looking good with the Euro remaining steadfast. Still a ways out but I feel this was a good hurdle to clear. Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter. Truly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Does the Euro still give us light snow on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Agreed. That was the first thing I look for. With the cold surface temps, it's a good "foundation" to build on. Agree too. We've seen that all winter with these systems bombing out to our S at just the right time. A little isallobaric component and CAD and we mitigate the warmth below H85 during the bombing phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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