40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ugh. We are actually allowed to talk about the models aren't we? I never said don't talk about the models..Just that noone uses or factors in the GFS..Pretty simple really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ouch....at least we dryslot in the rain l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What's funny is I think you, scooter the met, and keV have weenied me as many times as you have inches on the ground. Keep them coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm not worried about the GFS....what I am somewhat concerned with is the EURO's apparently stealthy fetish for sleet. Yeah that is def a concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ouch....at least we dryslot in the rain l as per SnowStormCanuck: GGEM doesnt dig the energy to the gulf coast as far south and is neg titlted earlier likely an overamplificaiton error early in its run,, -- well i suppose this follows since, its hinted at by the difference at 48 in the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah that is def a concern I remember, maybe 5-8 years ago, we had a storm that was forecasted for 12-18" snow, but ended up being 6" of pure sleet IMBY...what a bust; hopefully that sneaky warm layer can be mitigated in 12z Dr No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I remember, maybe 5-8 years ago, we had a storm that was forecasted for 12-18" snow, but ended up being 6" of pure sleet IMBY...what a bust; hopefully that sneaky warm layer can be mitigated in 12z Dr No 4 years ago...V-Day 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 4 years ago...V-Day 2007 yup, that must've been it....I was so POed that i made myself sleep thru the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Only minor concern enters this with this GGEM run. This model as a westward bias most of the time - it is difficult per run to determine what factors allow it to really express that bias or not, but the 00z run and the 12z run are discontinuous enough that consider that, and the former point, one shouldn't really even give a nod to that type of penetration W until there is better support by runs that don't carry said bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I was up last night reading Scooters analysis of the Euro, by the way that Dr No stuff is so 10 , he pointed out reasons why this was a snow bomb not a sleet festival. Today we have Ray and KeV mentioning it in every post. I will stick with Scooters analysis, anyway we will see what the Euro brings but not expecting much change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 yup, that must've been it....I was so POed that i made myself sleep thru the storm http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/pns/pnsPlot.FEB14_2007.grd.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GGEM doesnt dig the energy to the gulf coast as far south and is neg titlted earlier likely an overamplificaiton error early in its run,, as hinted at by the difference at 48 in the RGEM. lol, this stuff is copyrighted OL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I was up last night reading Scooters analysis of the Euro, by the way that Dr No stuff is so 10 , he pointed out reasons why this was a snow bomb not a sleet festival. Today we have Ray and KeV mentioning it in every post. I will stick with Scooters analysis, anyway we will see what the Euro brings but not expecting much change. Agree 100%. I was very confused this AM when I logged on and everyone was talking about a sleet fest. Let's see what the Dr. has to say in 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/pns/pnsPlot.FEB14_2007.grd.png Hv runner, someone give me a BM storm that was PRIMARILY sleet, good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 4 years ago...V-Day 2007 That was a major powderfest, some awesome skiing at MRG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GEFS members at 84hr. Op is the top left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol...well at face value it doesn't. that's all i'm laughing at. it certainly could end up big. but it's premature to get jacked about it. i mean obviously it's open to interpretation etc. and we can say it would be this or it would be that, but the model (the 00z euro) *verbatim* is nowhere near a crushing for everyone. by h96, essentially the height of the storm...it is warm for a lot of folks. not necessarily YBY, but for a lot of people in the E half of MA, all of RI, parts of CT etc. Way more complicated than that. I have legit concerns about what happened at 06z and the 09z SREF. Something new was seen on those suites. Even on the amped up solutions that give a lot of precip, there is plenty of mid-level warmth to be concerned about. Euro gave you a ton of sleet. this run of the euro looks like one of those rare storms...happens every once in a while...where someplace inland is predominantly sleet from almost start to finish. surface definitely stays cold over the interior but there's a lot of low and mid-level warming. just one run so who knows but it's interesting. i'm also curious about the magically disappearing vortmax the gfs is now showing. Its a lot of snow N and W of 495 on the euro but there is def some sleet that gets in there...S of the pike near Kevin its a paint peeler for quite a bit of the storm. I have very little confidence in ptype for this storm. I do think interior will be frozen, but whether that is more sleet/ZR or mostly snow....I have no idea. Closer to the coast its even more difficult. depends on where you live. some of the region the euro was a snowbomb. i was just commenting that if you weighted this thread to the population, i don't think a lot of folks would jump for joy with what the euro was showing at face value. it's just one run though. by no means am i saying this is not a good storm for a good chunk of the area. i just think this go around we are threading a needle more so than the past few events and it is too early to "la-la-lock it" Steve, take the weenie goggles off and stop being so biased.....it's ok to mention snow in "every other post", but the moment someone mentions a legitimate concern that you don't want to hear....they get called out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol, this stuff is copyrighted OL. edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hv runner, someone give me a BM storm that was PRIMARILY sleet, good luck with that It was not a HV runner....it tracked near the cc canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Steve, take the weenie goggles off and stop being so biased.....it's ok to mention snow in "every other post", but the moment someone mentions a legitimate concern that you don't want to hear....they get called out. He's the CoT's enforcer. I'd leave it alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 He's the CoT's enforcer. I'd leave it alone. Leave this alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Agree 100%. I was very confused this AM when I logged on and everyone was talking about a sleet fest. Let's see what the Dr. has to say in 30 minutes. I'm not calling for a sleet fest....TBH I thought the EURO was a snow-bomb....I referred to it as "perfect", but when Phil and Will speak, I listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm not calling for a sleet fest....TBH I thought the EURO was a snow-bomb....I referred to it as "perfect", but when Phil and Will speak, I listen. As do I..and trust me..living in the sleet capital of New Eng..when they speak I listen. I think there was drunk model interpretation last nite that may have tainted towards more snow than what it was actually showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 V-Day event was coooooold at the surface....I'd take 8" of snow sleet, but hopefully it will be snowier than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ray...you were talking about the Ukie extrap...actual is a BM track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 V-Day event was coooooold at the surface....I'd take 8" of snow sleet, but hopefully it will be snowier than that. I was supposed to get 3-6 out of that with the morning 4cast before the changeover. It started as pure sleet with a temp of 7 degrees. 4-5 inches of sleet later I had pock marks all over my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GEFS members at 84hr. Op is the top left. Some of those members are closer to the GGEM than the GFS op. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ray...you were talking about the Ukie extrap...actual is a BM track. Thanks, Bri....good call by Scoot. I don't expect the EURO to waiver much....maybe a hiar more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 thats ridiculous you guys got that much sleet i cant even imagine that what a pain to clear that mustve been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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