Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Roll out a new thread before the morning runs. Old thread http://www.americanw...7-storm-threat/ 06z Op GFS went all Crazy Uncle on us and gave someone in NH a heart attack. Fear not, the 06z Ensm. are right there in line with all the other globals around the BM. I'd give this another 24 hours to shake out before we start focusing on R/S taint areas. Interior areas away from the coast will do the best no doubt. It's been the seasonal trend. If the Euro is right we will all be happy come Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good reading. 000 FXUS61 KBOX 231132 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 632 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011 .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MDL SOLNS COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH MID-WEEK COASTAL STORM. LATEST 0Z ECMWF...WHICH NOTABLY HAS RETAINED NEAR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...AGREES WELL WITH H5-SFC MASS FIELDS AMONGST GEFS/DGEX/GEM ENS MDLS...WHILE OPER GFS/GEM REMAIN THE OUTLIERS...BOTH SLOWER THAN ALL GUIDANCE. NOTABLY YESTERDAYS 0Z GFS WAS THE FASTEST MDL GUIDANCE. H5 POS TILTED TROF DEEPENS THRU THE ERN CONUS AND BECOMES NEG TILTED BY 12Z WED...LIFTING NEWD AS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 0Z THURS. AT SUCH TIME MDL SOLNS HIGHLIGHT WAA COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OF HIGH THETAE AIR RESULTING IN MODEST MOIST CONV THRU THE TROWAL STRUCTURE INTO FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH RGNS. PARENT H3 JET AXES ARE NEARLY ADJACENT ALLOWING A COUPLING OF A RIGHT ENTRANCE LEFT EXIT RGN AND THEREFORE STRONG UPR LVL DIV IN PROXIMITY TO STRONG MID-LVL WAA...WHILE A STRONG NLY H925 50-60 KT LLJ IS COLLOCATED AT THE SFC. ITS WORTH NOTING SUCH VERT STRUCTURE ALLOWS FOR A COUPLING OF UPR AND LWR JET STREAMS AND STRONG VERT LIFT THRU THE ATMOS COLUMN...AS EVIDENCED IN THE AGEO FLOW IN THE ECMWF. NOT SURPRISING THE COMBINATION AIDES IN THE DVLPMNT OF A NEARLY STACKED LOW FROM THE SFC TO H3...WITH THE ECWMF ADVERTISING AROUND 980 MB LOW OVER ITS PAST THREE RUNS. CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY WITH A PRESENT NEGATIVE NAO/AO TREND. SO WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? AN AREA OF FAVORABLE PRECIP DVLPMNT WILL OCCUR SEEMS LIKELY ALONG THE NW QUADRANT OF THE CLOSED LOW SYS. WITH SFC-H85 FRZ LINES WOBBLING WITHIN THE PROXIMITY OF BUZZARDS BAY AND CANAL RGN INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND THE PRESENT FCST TRACK OF THE NEARLY STACKED LOW...THE BETTER PRECIP DVLPMNT LOOKS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND PERHAPS MORE OFFSHORE. SNOW STILL IS POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS...WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX IN THE SRN COASTAL PLAIN AND RAIN OUT OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. WITH SUCH A DEEP SYS THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF WIND ASSOC WITH THIS COASTAL STORM AS EVIDENCE FROM PREV MENTIONED LLJ...AND PRESENT TRACK COULD LEND TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. YET...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE SYS ITSELF IS ONLY COMING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW AND IS DAYS AWAY. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF BOTH TRACK... TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE SYS BY MID-WEEK...THIS WILL ULTIMATELY IMPACT WHERE THE BEST PRECIP ORIGINATES AND WHERE THE FRZ LINE SITUATES. DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TIME. FOR TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...BLENDED 2M ECMWF WHILE ENCOMPASSING MOS GUIDANCE...DAILY SKY/WIND TRENDS...AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW COVERED GROUND. FOR SKY AND WINDS...BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE WITH ECMWF WHILE INCORPORATING PREV FCSTR THINKING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good reading. Yeah---I was reading that too. I found the comments about the placement of heavier qpf in the warm sector and perhaps off-shore a little disconcerting. FWIW, here are some of the thoughts out of ALY. MODELS HAVE WIDELY DIFFERING PRECIP AMOUNTS...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FAIRLY GENEROUS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH STORM TOTALS OF WELL OVER AN INCH QPF IN LITCHFIELD AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTIES. THE GFS IS MUCH DRIER WITH LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OVER SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD AND EVEN LESS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE GEM HINTS THAT GOOD PORTION OF THE PRECIP IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY COULD END UP AS RAIN...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS SNOW AND SLEET. THE VERTICAL PROFILE AND QPF IN THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND SLEET IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. LOTS OF CHANGES ARE LIKELY BETWEEN NOW AND WHEN THIS STORM OCCURS. A SLIGHT TURN TO THE RIGHT COULD PUT MOST OR ALL OF IT OVER THE OCEAN. A SLIGHT TURN WESTWARD...THE WHOLE AREA COULD GET A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW...PERHAPS A WINTRY MIX FROM THE ALBANY AREA SOUTH AND EAST. STAY TUNED. 7.5/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yup, This is the key part of the Box discussion for people to keep in mind over the course of today's model runs: "YET...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE SYS ITSELF IS ONLY COMING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW AND IS DAYS AWAY. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF BOTH TRACK... TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE SYS BY MID-WEEK...THIS WILL ULTIMATELY IMPACT WHERE THE BEST PRECIP ORIGINATES AND WHERE THE FRZ LINE SITUATES. DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TIME. Still plenty of time for the models to correct E or W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 reading the nyc thread since we are temporarily dead adn they do have some mets in there....apparently all 6z guidance has gone se, even ots...at least thats how I'm reading. 6z nam, 6z gfs, altho ens are nw of op, dgex also. are they ingesting new data as shortwaves are coming onto shore out west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GYX AFD pretty much just says it might snow midweek. Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i think its somewhat important to set the bar appropriately for your storms results on this one. There are red flags from Box on why this likely isn't going to be a wide spread heavy heavy snow storm. But the party is blarring and i think Ginx is about to kick me out if i speak about this above my breath.....and there are chicks dancing on the bar...pouring shots down my throat so i think i'll just cross my fingers and close my eyes that the BL doesn't get torched as the heavy precip on this one moves in. euro 7pm wednesday has 0c line outside 495 w/ 2c 850 line from Bos area wsw to 128 and cuttin down thru NE Ri and SE CT. it sounds like there could be a narrow area of heavy snows.....perhaps E slopes to monads or if the storm is a tad further SE.....Ct Hills to Orh hills/wachusett area.....i think elevation will be a bit bigger factor than most of the storms so far this winter. thou i think my area could see a solid 6-12 if things thread the needle regarding heavy qpf and warming BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 reading the nyc thread since we are temporarily dead adn they do have some mets in there....apparently all 6z guidance has gone se, even ots...at least thats how I'm reading. 6z nam, 6z gfs, altho ens are nw of op, dgex also. are they ingesting new data as shortwaves are coming onto shore out west? It would be funny if the 06z gfs came to pass after the early dreams of an epic storm. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 reading the nyc thread since we are temporarily dead adn they do have some mets in there....apparently all 6z guidance has gone se, even ots...at least thats how I'm reading. 6z nam, 6z gfs, altho ens are nw of op, dgex also. are they ingesting new data as shortwaves are coming onto shore out west? Key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This is a widespread 12+ snowstorm..Mixing issues will need to be hammered out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 reading the nyc thread since we are temporarily dead adn they do have some mets in there....apparently all 6z guidance has gone se, even ots...at least thats how I'm reading. 6z nam, 6z gfs, altho ens are nw of op, dgex also. are they ingesting new data as shortwaves are coming onto shore out west? Yes the 06z guidance (GFS, NAM, DGEX, NOGAPS) have shifted SE. We'll see what the 12z runs have to offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This is a widespread 12+ snowstorm..Mixing issues will need to be hammered out Yes I think that is the likely big picture. Just some oddities in the modelling that will clear themselves up. Hard to bet against the Euro with its tremendous consistency and its success in these setups. Always good to see the models s and e I am ambivalent at this point about cancelling my Wednesday work in Buffalo....want another day of modelling and the features onshore in north america. But hate the thought of being stuck at Buffalo on Wednesday eve while there is a pummelling going on. My flight arrives 745pm into Boston...maybe I can land during the taint and then race home up 93 thru the blizz.... Pretty awesome to think about 12 or more on top of this snowpack. Would push it above 3ft and my piles will make it look like 6 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 06z GFS Ensm mean precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This is a widespread 12+ snowstorm..Mixing issues will need to be hammered out widespread for where......most signs point to a trend where higher qpf = higher taint /taint penetration inland i think there is a small swath in N orh county or further west out be mike (lat and elevation imo will help here) that is in the heavier snow band. and i think most areas see front end dump to less period of FRZ R to rain. (possibly drenching) unless it stays a tad further SE (threads the needle) and then you to N. Ri to orh and the 495 to 128 w/n of bos get in on heavier band....but i don't think our luck is that good this year. i would like this a bit more if i was in NH/S.VT or SW Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 At this stage I consider a shift to the SE favorable to a western shift. It's been a pattern. Shifts to the SE then shifting back to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes I think that is the likely big picture. Just some oddities in the modelling that will clear themselves up. Hard to bet against the Euro with its tremendous consistency and its success in these setups. Always good to see the models s and e I am ambivalent at this point about cancelling my Wednesday work in Buffalo....want another day of modelling and the features onshore in north america. But hate the thought of being stuck at Buffalo on Wednesday eve while there is a pummelling going on. My flight arrives 745pm into Boston...maybe I can land during the taint and then race home up 93 thru the blizz.... Pretty awesome to think about 12 or more on top of this snowpack. Would push it above 3ft and my piles will make it look like 6 ft. i think this is causing more emotion and snow bias to creep into weenies "forecasts" than what is being flagged. At least i know MPM agrees. right ........ and i don't mean this for mark w.....he's up in Eastern CNE where they look much more golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 widespread for where......most signs point to a trend where higher qpf = higher taint /taint penetration inland i think there is a small swath in N orh county or further west out be mike (lat and elevation imo will help here) that is in the heavier snow band. and i think most areas see front end dump to less period of FRZ R to rain. (possibly drenching) unless it stays a tad further SE (threads the needle) and then you to N. Ri to orh and the 495 to 128 w/n of bos get in on heavier band....but i don't think our luck is that good this year. Dude there's gonna be very little rain with this away from SE Mass...It's a snow storm for 95% of SNE..and a major one at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Dude there's gonna be very little rain with this away from SE Mass...It's a snow storm for 95% of SNE..and a major one at that when you have much more confidence than Box/ HPC in this fact.....it is supposed to be re-assuring? lets see where models stand monday and then have this confidence. besides deep down in your non-weenie mind you fear the 0c line isn't gonna hold. admit it rev. those north of the ma/ nh border west of the CP and GC can be confident. others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 isn't Thursday a bit later than we want this thing? I thought there was talk of how a quicker track would give a better shot at widespread snow, and less mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Dude there's gonna be very little rain with this away from SE Mass...It's a snow storm for 95% of SNE..and a major one at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes I think that is the likely big picture. Just some oddities in the modelling that will clear themselves up. Hard to bet against the Euro with its tremendous consistency and its success in these setups. Always good to see the models s and e I am ambivalent at this point about cancelling my Wednesday work in Buffalo....want another day of modelling and the features onshore in north america. But hate the thought of being stuck at Buffalo on Wednesday eve while there is a pummelling going on. My flight arrives 745pm into Boston...maybe I can land during the taint and then race home up 93 thru the blizz.... Pretty awesome to think about 12 or more on top of this snowpack. Would push it above 3ft and my piles will make it look like 6 ft. you are dreaming. any kind of snow makes a race up I-93 merely a pipe dream. unless of course you consider a 10 MPH drive a "race". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i think this is causing more emotion and snow bias to creep into weenies "forecasts" than what is being flagged. At least i know MPM agrees. right ........ and i don't mean this for mark w.....he's up in Eastern CNE where they look much more golden. what is MPM? my personal meteorologist?...ah it's our boy Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 you are dreaming. any kind of snow makes a race up I-93 merely a pipe dream. unless of course you consider a 10 MPH drive a "race". I would be racing in my mind, but I'm a careful driver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 snow flurries....guess the arctic front is moving thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 isn't Thursday a bit later than we want this thing? I thought there was talk of how a quicker track would give a better shot at widespread snow, and less mixing? I noticed this as well. I was told it was a Wednesday storm last night but this morning I see it is modeled as a Thursday event, at least here. I don't know what the ramifications are, though I do recall the discussion of 'quicker is better' to take advantage of the fresh antecedent cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 what does the timing look like on this btw? when does snow move into Bos and when is the peak? I know it is early, but is there some consensus emerging on timing. I know it was all over the place earlier due to models doing different amounts of digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 isn't Thursday a bit later than we want this thing? I thought there was talk of how a quicker track would give a better shot at widespread snow, and less mixing? Looks a lot slower. And yes, i owuld think earlier would allow for the current cold airmass to come into play. Later? Not so much....... Give me NW with 12z please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I would be racing in my mind, but I'm a careful driver. lol i wasn't trying to imply that you are a crazy driver. just saying that with any kind of traffic on 93 in the snow, it will be very slow going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 when you have much more confidence than Box/ HPC in this fact.....it is supposed to be re-assuring? lets see where models stand monday and then have this confidence. besides deep down in your non-weenie mind you fear the 0c line isn't gonna hold. admit it rev. those north of the ma/ nh border west of the CP and GC can be confident. others? The Euro is snow for almost everyone..with maybe an hour or 2 of sleet into Eastern Mass just like Will, Scooter and Jerry said. BOX is on board for a big hit. Relax dude seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 isn't Thursday a bit later than we want this thing? I thought there was talk of how a quicker track would give a better shot at widespread snow, and less mixing? Thursday? It's a Wednesday into early Thursday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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