NEGa Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It makes you wonder why that's for sure. I know a lot of those events though we had east to west convection that blocked moisture transport into nc. We often look and talk about the gulf coast convection doing this but if the convection is lined up across central ga to sc, the same thing happens. Certainly no complaints here, it's been damn nice not being in the middle of the screw zone. As for next week, there is definately potential, especially for the carolinas. The 0z canadian looked very threatening, although a change to rain would be likely but it's not a given the low track is accurate..but the upper levels seem to support more damming than what is being shown on the gfs But the canadian was already showing strong damming early on. 12z run looks similar, maybe a touch warmer..it's hard to say with those crummy maps. As you said it's not totally there yet for a major one but plenty of time for that high/wedging to trend stronger and would like to see the polar vortex consolidate and orient nw to se and a bit further south. It's sort of rare for the models to show a strong damming event this far in advance fwiw so it Will be interesting to watch. it is amazing how the precip can be moving from al to ga and disappear before reaching ne ga, just as we can have some good returns over head that disappear as soon as they move into the upstate. got about .8" this week which was needed. as for next week, after being burned within 24 hours this week, i am very skeptical (but of course watching). seems like we cant really get a good cad to verify in ages. shows up on the models then weakens, or doesnt show up, but we also havent been getting the 'trending colder' cads like we were 5 years ago. i really like seeing a 1040 or higher H, but getting it to wedge down is another matter (esp with wedging down and bringing in precip at the same time). i am looking forward (and getting tired of waiting) for a CAD where we can watch the dewpoints (low dewpoints lol) and temps, etc. last couple of so called cads didnt really have the low dewpoints, so a lot of us evened out at the dreaded 32/33 and rain the last few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The fact that a snowstorm almost occurred in the Triad yesterday (huge snowflakes) argues against that absolutist position, at least for North Carolina and Virginia. On what data do you base your statement from, that this next storm will take a more southernly track and have more available cold air available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I guess La Nina is finally asserting itself..... which is strange because now we're getting into a wetter pattern, not a drier one. Its been a strange Winter. So if the upcoming pattern is more representative of La Nina, I'd take it! I had the biggest rain event in 2 months yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Thats an awful lot of strong high pressure its going to have to cut through. But its early and the position of the PV will probably determine how this evolves. Surface high aside, the trough digging in the mid section of the nation argues for an inland track for any low that develops in TX or the Western GOM, does it not? At least far enough inland that most of the SE would be rain with the possible exception of CAD areas? Not arguing, just looking for answers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Anything on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Surface high aside, the trough digging in the mid section of the nation argues for an inland track for any low that develops in TX or the Western GOM, does it not? At least far enough inland that most of the SE would be rain with the possible exception of CAD areas? Not arguing, just looking for answers... Confluence over the midwest and/or NE would potentially be a suppressor. I'm on BB so I can't see the model right now, but if there is a broad trough and confluence over the Lakes and if there is no northern stream wave to capture or phase with the southern wave, then the southern wave would tend to take a more southerly track. I might not be describing the model correctly though, since I can't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 which is strange because now we're getting into a wetter pattern, not a drier one. Its been a strange Winter. So if the upcoming pattern is more representative of La Nina, I'd take it! I had the biggest rain event in 2 months yesterday. I was thinking the same thing. Over and over it seems like what's unfolding is more of an El Nino pattern (correct me if I'm wrong). Also...any estimates on cold temps for next week? Not necessarily for winter weather scenarios, but obviously some cold air would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 at 96 hours, on the Euro Canada is a vast sea of subzero air almost the whole country. The southern system is coming through the Southeast, quite a bit stronger, and may help pull down the baroclinic zone. That high is 1044 in Mt and bleeding into the northern half of the nation. Brrrr air for sure. The southwest low is south of the 4 corners. Looks like it could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 at 120, the low at the surface is in south Texas, with southwest flow aloft over the southern half of the country, so we're about +4 in the Southeast on the east side of the Apps, with arctic high in the western High Plains, and a strong upslope type of snowfall in western Texas and OK. By 126 its a strong overrunning which favors the TEnn Valley with snow and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Oscillation's are not in favor for the southeast at this point in time. I wouldn't want to hype this system with the way the AO and NAO are positively increasing its rate of change. Availability of cold air will be hard to come by. How is he hyping anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I have to leave soon, but at 132 this is similar to its other run, maybe further south. Its going to come down to timing of the arctic front and where it drapes. I'm favoring APPs west with the low level and upper cold, and overrunning begins around Tuesday. Snow and ice for much of Texas interior, Ark, Tenn, n. Miss. Certainly no Lakes cutter, as I sort of suspectd with such strong artic high in the Plains. Could be a heck of a ice and snow event west of the Apps, even deep into Ala, Ga, La, Tex, Ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 This is shaping up to be a major precip event in the Southeast. Most of GA by 144 has atleast 1.75" (includes the Mon storm) So wet times are ahead. Probably a Winter storm on the west side of the Apps, and the Carolinas with this run is a soaker. Again, timing of the southwest system, versus the arrival of the arctic front next week will be the key on who gets what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Snowing in San Antonio by 0z Wednesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 2"' of snow in Austin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 UK- Lakes cutter CMC= Lakes cutter Euro- trending back that way after the 00Z run. Folks, not impressed with this one- except for hopefully a nice rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Somehow Dallas/Fort Worth gets half a foot and I get heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 its a strong arctic outbreak following the storm. TN, Ky and ARk are at -16, and the Southeast is very cold. So hopefully somehow areas west of the Apps get more snow , not ice, but I'm leaning a lot of ice for someone west of the Apps with this setup, which would be very bad news with such a cold airmass coming in afterwards. The overall setup is pretty wintry. Plenty of time to follow this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Somehow Dallas/Fort Worth gets half a foot and I get heavy rain. Its the way the trough and setup is aligned. Its happened before. Right now I'm favoring west of the Apps for a good hit from a Winter storm. Low level cold should have no problem west of us bleeding down, but east of the Apps different story, unless the northern trough gets here much earlier, or the SW system arrives later. I don't see much chance with a Lakes Cutter on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 I hope it slows 12 to 24 hours so that the Arctic High can get in a favorable position. These systems where the cold is chasing the moisture doesn't pan out to well around here. Maybe if the high latitude warming creates blocking in the right place, it can extend winter longer with many more chances to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 its a strong arctic outbreak following the storm. TN, Ky and ARk are at -16, and the Southeast is very cold. So hopefully somehow areas west of the Apps get more snow , not ice, but I'm leaning a lot of ice for someone west of the Apps with this setup, which would be very bad news with such a cold airmass coming in afterwards. The overall setup is pretty wintry. Plenty of time to follow this. Rain for the Carolina's, then miserable cold and dry (high's in the 30's lows in the teens), I can't wait for March. But the good news the MA and NE would get hit again with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I do not think it's out of the realm of possibility for the southern system to be delayed. As usual, we're 7 days away from this arriving in the SE. The timing of these features WILL change. I don't think a Lakes cutter is more likely than a non-Lakes cutter, although an inland track/Miller B is solidly on the table. Shift the whole pattern just a bit east and we're in really good shape. Not an impossible task from 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Its the way the trough and setup is aligned. Its happened before. Right now I'm favoring west of the Apps for a good hit from a Winter storm. Low level cold should have no problem west of us bleeding down, but east of the Apps different story, unless the northern trough gets here much earlier, or the SW system arrives later. I don't see much chance with a Lakes Cutter on this. The storm this week was forcasted last to start on mon and thru tuesday and we saw how that one turned out.I am still praying we can get at least one more good snow for the southeast ,a liitle more on the upper side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 UK- Lakes cutter CMC= Lakes cutter Euro- trending back that way after the 00Z run. Folks, not impressed with this one- except for hopefully a nice rain. I'm confused - I haven't seen the Euro yet, but we have a post above yours which says if anything the EC is trending south, and you are saying it's trended toward a Lakes cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I thought the EURO was going with the east coast runner this morning . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Will wait for the Euro ensembles but my thinking is that they will be more in a Lakes cutter mode than the op. If so, except perhaps western TN- this is going to be just rain, sorry, Cold behind it, yes. But very little to no chance of snow for almost all on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 This storm manages to hit everyone except nc/sc/ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It looks weird... held alot of energy back.. and slowly sent it out in pieces. First piece develops in the southern plains at 96 hours....850 temp line way north.. Resized to 66% (was 1024 x 819) - Click image to enlarge By hour 120 850 mb temp has sunk to central Va extending generally westward back toward northern Arkansas. Nice High to north at this point. Resized to 66% (was 1024 x 819) - Click image to enlarge At hour 144 it has the next piece developing in texas.... Resized to 66% (was 1024 x 819) - Click image to enlarge 168 already has the low about 100 miles off the north Carolina Coast.. :x Quick mover.. 850 mb temps sag even further south through most of the south east.. up to just south of the va/nc border at the beaches. Resized to 66% (was 1024 x 819) - Click image to enlarge Back to top Report MultiQuote Reply This is what was showing this morning. // Show multiquote for JS browsers if ( $('multiq_379173') ) { $('multiq_379173').show(); } if( $('toggle_post_379173') ) { $('toggle_post_379173').show(); } // Add perm data ipb.topic.deletePerms[379173] = { 'canDelete' : 0, 'canSoftDelete' : 0 }; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Will wait for the Euro ensembles but my thinking is that they will be more in a Lakes cutter mode than the op. If so, except perhaps western TN- this is going to be just rain, sorry, Cold behind it, yes. But very little to no chance of snow for almost all on this board. Cheez, You think it's unlikely the system gets delayed? I'm not sure I'd put much stock in any model solution at this point, given the fact that they were routinely hundreds of miles apart with each other (and sometimes with their own previous runs) with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I'm confused - I haven't seen the Euro yet, but we have a post above yours which says if anything the EC is trending south, and you are saying it's trended toward a Lakes cutter? Yes- the 00Z run was much more suppressed than this run. The handwriting is on the wall for this one. I will take the rain but snow- forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 After the way this wonter has been I wouldn't trust the models much until it gets a LOT closer maybe 12 to 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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