Feb 2-4 Storm

[FoothillsNC]

I just saw the Euro and won't be surprised to see it trend more favorably for a more widespread Winter Storm next Tue/Wed. in some parts of the SE. There's our usual cutofff in the Southwest and a 1038 high in Nebraska, with a weak system sliding out to sea that begins pulling in the colder air with the deep trough in the Midwest. The question is how far does that cold air dig and if it digs too much , that supresses our western system, not enough and it allows the system to cut west of the Apps...but if the porridge tastes just right, it slides due east in tandem, in a rare excellent setup , that would allow overrunning snow and ice across n. Tx sliding east, northeast from there. Winter's not over and more chances are just about to show up.

[Srain]

I just saw the Euro and won't be surprised to see it trend more favorably for a more widespread Winter Storm next Tue/Wed. in some parts of the SE. There's our usual cutofff in the Southwest and a 1038 high in Nebraska, with a weak system sliding out to sea that begins pulling in the colder air with the deep trough in the Midwest. The question is how far does that cold air dig and if it digs too much , that supresses our western system, not enough and it allows the system to cut west of the Apps...but if the porridge tastes just right, it slides due east in tandem, in a rare excellent setup , that would allow overrunning snow and ice across n. Tx sliding east, northeast from there. Winter's not over and more chances are just about to show up.

Good analysis, Robert. We are getting ready for some interesting weather across TX early next week. Good luck to our SE neighbors as well.

[Cold Rain]

Chris,

Good post and I agree with your thoughts with the data you presented. I'm a little bit more optimistic as both the GFS and the Euro show HP dropping into the Plains around 120. And no slouch of a high at that. There is also general confluence in the NE, so it's likely the models are underestimating any CAD at this time. I'm not really concerned about the thermal fields or QPF amounts just yet because if the setup remains in tact, a difficult prospect given 5+ days out, I think temps and QPF will come in line. Still not dismissing the real potential of a Lakes cutter, but I don't think that's set in stone either. We shall see.

[TheBlade]

Ive given up on QPF amounts from any of the models since most storms have fallen well short of the predicted QPF. Speaking for MBY of course, Im sure it verified for some, but QPF has definitely been hard to come by around here. I am just glad to see some potential on the horizon. This time last week we were already talking about the High being OTS if the storm was delayed 12 hours or so, which obviously verified, so it is nice to see some good high pressure on the models as of now, and stronger ridging out west. Now if we can just get the timing right.

[burgertime]

Good analysis, Robert. We are getting ready for some interesting weather across TX early next week. Good luck to our SE neighbors as well.

Seems to be a general rule when you guys get some wintry weather we have a good shot...especially if DFW gets slammed.

[Weather Czar]

Ive given up on QPF amounts from any of the models since most storms have fallen well short of the predicted QPF. Speaking for MBY of course, Im sure it verified for some, but QPF has definitely been hard to come by around here. I am just glad to see some potential on the horizon. This time last week we were already talking about the High being OTS if the storm was delayed 12 hours or so, which obviously verified, so it is nice to see some good high pressure on the models as of now, and stronger ridging out west. Now if we can just get the timing right.

Welcome to la Nina. I'm even surprised its been this wet imby this year.

[FoothillsNC]

Ive given up on QPF amounts from any of the models since most storms have fallen well short of the predicted QPF. Speaking for MBY of course, Im sure it verified for some, but QPF has definitely been hard to come by around here. I am just glad to see some potential on the horizon. This time last week we were already talking about the High being OTS if the storm was delayed 12 hours or so, which obviously verified, so it is nice to see some good high pressure on the models as of now, and stronger ridging out west. Now if we can just get the timing right.

I feel like I got lucky with yesterdays. I saw CLT had .29", I had .60" and got hit with the southern part of the strong ULL as it spiraled in the western sections before lifting northeast, which gave area east much less. The total event was .80" which is about the best precip even here since November.

[strongwxnc]

Also, seems to be awesome when Srain posted in here.

Thanks.

And yes, I agree with your thoughts Burger..

Seems to be a general rule when you guys get some wintry weather we have a good shot...especially if DFW gets slammed.

I picked up .39" from yesterday.

Total for mby was

.79"

I feel like I got lucky with yesterdays. I saw CLT had .29", I had .60" and got hit with the southern part of the strong ULL as it spiraled in the western sections before lifting northeast, which gave area east much less. The total event was .80" which is about the best precip even here since November.

[TheBlade]

I feel like I got lucky with yesterdays. I saw CLT had .29", I had .60" and got hit with the southern part of the strong ULL as it spiraled in the western sections before lifting northeast, which gave area east much less. The total event was .80" which is about the best precip even here since November.

Yea I live in Union, and just about right where those light blue squares are is my house. But oh well, on to the next storm, hopefully the 12z run will give us some more good news since it is running now.

[Lookout]

Ive given up on QPF amounts from any of the models since most storms have fallen well short of the predicted QPF. Speaking for MBY of course, Im sure it verified for some, but QPF has definitely been hard to come by around here. I am just glad to see some potential on the horizon. This time last week we were already talking about the High being OTS if the storm was delayed 12 hours or so, which obviously verified, so it is nice to see some good high pressure on the models as of now, and stronger ridging out west. Now if we can just get the timing right.

I've thought the Models have been fairly accurate with respect to totals here with all of our major systems this year...although this last one was obviously a lot drier compared to a few days worth of runs showing 1 to 1.5 inches, Still managed 0.90. It's interesting how often precip totals are overdone in north carolina compared to here. It seems like georgia doesn't do nearly as badly in that regard.

[oconeexman]

I feel like I got lucky with yesterdays. I saw CLT had .29", I had .60" and got hit with the southern part of the strong ULL as it spiraled in the western sections before lifting northeast, which gave area east much less. The total event was .80" which is about the best precip even here since November.

That map is pretty dang accurate, I ended up with .7" for the event.

[burgertime]

The 12z looks pretty close to the 00z Euro to me for next week, the 850 temps are starting to go down in TX @132 but the low seems to have a hard time getting it's act together in the GOM..while the GFS and Euro by no means are identical I think it is a good step in the right direction for us...IF the Euro holds on to the same general ideas at 12z we might have something to watch over the weekend . BTW the Euro is a lot colder...so given the current state of the atmosphere the GFS with it's warmer look may be more believable.

[tnweathernut]

I just saw the Euro and won't be surprised to see it trend more favorably for a more widespread Winter Storm next Tue/Wed. in some parts of the SE. There's our usual cutofff in the Southwest and a 1038 high in Nebraska, with a weak system sliding out to sea that begins pulling in the colder air with the deep trough in the Midwest. The question is how far does that cold air dig and if it digs too much , that supresses our western system, not enough and it allows the system to cut west of the Apps...but if the porridge tastes just right, it slides due east in tandem, in a rare excellent setup , that would allow overrunning snow and ice across n. Tx sliding east, northeast from there. Winter's not over and more chances are just about to show up.

The Euro had been locked in to a lakes cutter scenerio and had some support from other modeling. I am not sure one run is enough to say it is trending toward a favorable winter situation. It almost feels to me like this run of the Euro was the "blip" and that it will go back toward the cutter idea it had been holding on to. Without a sustained -NAO it's going to be like pulling teeth to give anyone south of the TN Valleys and parts of NC a good dose of winter weather.

With the northwest trend type of pattern back, or so it seems, I'd want this system to be slated to run through the Gulf of Mexico at this point to have a good feeling even for the areas I just mentioned. It does look to me like areas just to our north (i.e Kentucky, WV, OH Valley) could be setting themselves up for something interesting during the time frame you are talking about.

But what do i know, i am just an enthusiast with amature knowledge of looking at the different levels on the models and a gut that I follow often. Time will tell and I appreciate your enthusiasm and expertise, and would take ANY shot at winter weather that we have left.

Though I am exhausted from following this last storm - I am always up for the next challenge.

[FoothillsNC]

I've thought the Models have been fairly accurate with respect to totals here with all of our major systems this year...although this last one was obviously a lot drier compared to a few days worth of runs showing 1 to 1.5 inches, Still managed 0.90. It's interesting how often precip totals are overdone in north carolina compared to here. It seems like georgia doesn't do nearly as badly in that regard.

GA has been beating the pants off NC for a long time now in the rain dept. All those big training events in Ga that stretched into the foothills and to near HKY and the mountains, but never made into this area and much of central NC made a whopping difference on last years overall totals, as much as 15" to 20". And so far in this Winter pattern the same idea continues, wetter around the edges.

Anyway, the GFS is looking interesting. The only thing on that model I'm watching is the location of the PV at 96 hours and beyond and the southwest. Already it has a strong positive tilt trough in the northern Plains to Lakes at 108 hours, which argues for a strong surface high , and sure enough it delivers on that, around 1040 and strenghtens to 1044, which synoptically should happen.

The PV is rather far northeast, so we'll see if the Euro is different, but this run is very close synoptically to giving a good overrunning icestorm west of the apps and snow on its northern edge, with the closed ridge in western Canada and PV where it is, and the Southwest energy, all those are classic ingredients for a TN Valley and upper Southeast Winter storm, but its not quite there yet. If the timing is different on the cold front coming in early next week, either further south or furthern north, that will make a bigger difference. Thats a really strong arctic high and will have low level bleed very far south, more so than usual since the trough is very pos. tilt in the Lakes.

[burgertime]

The GFS is too warm for next week but keeps the general Euro idea... let's see where the Euro goes at 12z.

[TheBlade]

Well it is more organized at 138, with a 1012 low just north of New Orleans and precip already over running in to NC.

And then the low goes right over CLT

[Cold Rain]

The GFS is too warm for next week but keeps the general Euro idea... let's see where the Euro goes at 12z.

It's too warm verbatim, but with that setup, it would be colder than what's shown. The very biggest concern I have is the system being delayed. It's close as it is (on this run). If the system is delayed, as has been the norm this season, the high will no longer be in a favorable position. That's going to be the key to this whole thing.

[burgertime]

It's too warm verbatim, but with that setup, it would be colder than what's shown. The very biggest concern I have is the system being delayed. It's close as it is (on this run). If the system is delayed, as has been the norm this season, the high will no longer be in a favorable position. That's going to be the key to this whole thing.

Yea the hilarity, if the system this week had just been delayed a little we could have had a winner..this one gets delayed too much and your back to square 1.

[TheBlade]

It's too warm verbatim, but with that setup, it would be colder than what's shown. The very biggest concern I have is the system being delayed. It's close as it is (on this run). If the system is delayed, as has been the norm this season, the high will no longer be in a favorable position. That's going to be the key to this whole thing.

Yea at 150 the High is already OTS, it looks like there is definitely CAD at 144 and 150, but like you said, if it is delayed, that HIgh will no longer be there.

[FoothillsNC]

This is going to be close, unless the Euro changes a lot. The overall idea of a closed high or strong ridging in western Canada/NW US and the Polar Vortex where it is, almost always argues for an active overrunning pattern in the Southeastern Third of the nation. The details will make the big difference at the surface on types, where the artic highs are, etc. I don't want to say I know what the Euro will do, but a lot of times in this pattern a sfc high is located in both the Plains and again in the Lakes or Northeast, with that strong pos. tilt trough oriented the way it is under the PV near Hudson's Bay, which quite often is a winter storm somewhere between the lower and middle plains to Tenn Valley to Virginias. If that pos. tilt trough were located further south, then much more of the interior upper southeast would get into Winter precip. but we can't say at this point.

[SN_Lover]

Just looked at the models....looks like the GFS it trending towards the lake cutter scenario. My confidence is very low for any winter precipitation in NC, GA, and SC in the Feb 2-4 time frame.

[Cold Rain]

One thing you can say about the GFS, with little regard to specific systems, is that it is relentless with the cold. There is no sustained warm pattern anywhere through 384 hours. Have no idea if it'll be right, but it sure does seem to love the +PNA and the southwest energy warehouse. Hopefully, it'll move that inventory east at just in time for a SE winter storm clearance sale.

The STJ looks to come alive toward the end of the run.

[FoothillsNC]

Just looked at the models....looks like the GFS it trending towards the lake cutter scenario. My confidence is very low for any winter precipitation in NC, GA, and SC in the Feb 2-4 time frame.

Thats an awful lot of strong high pressure its going to have to cut through. But its early and the position of the PV will probably determine how this evolves.

[SN_Lover]

Thats an awful lot of strong high pressure its going to have to cut through. But its early and the position of the PV will probably determine how this evolves.

Oscillation's are not in favor for the southeast at this point in time. I wouldn't want to hype this system with the way the AO and NAO are positively increasing its rate of change. Availability of cold air will be hard to come by.

[burgertime]

Thats an awful lot of strong high pressure its going to have to cut through. But its early and the position of the PV will probably determine how this evolves.

I was wondering the same thing...he probably thinks it will trend more NW in future runs. Care to explain Map?

Oscillation's are not in favor for the southeast at this point in time. I wouldn't want to hype this system with the way the AO and NAO are positively increasing its rate of change. Availability of cold air will be hard to come by.

That still doesn't explain why it would be a lakes cutter though.

*edited to add* The PNA is offsetting the AO and NAO right now...or in theory it should be anyways.

[Lookout]

GA has been beating the pants off NC for a long time now in the rain dept. All those big training events in Ga that stretched into the foothills and to near HKY and the mountains, but never made into this area and much of central NC made a whopping difference on last years overall totals, as much as 15" to 20". And so far in this Winter pattern the same idea continues, wetter around the edges.

Anyway, the GFS is looking interesting. The only thing on that model I'm watching is the location of the PV at 96 hours and beyond and the southwest. Already it has a strong positive tilt trough in the northern Plains to Lakes at 108 hours, which argues for a strong surface high , and sure enough it delivers on that, around 1040 and strenghtens to 1044, which synoptically should happen.

The PV is rather far northeast, so we'll see if the Euro is different, but this run is very close synoptically to giving a good overrunning icestorm west of the apps and snow on its northern edge, with the closed ridge in western Canada and PV where it is, and the Southwest energy, all those are classic ingredients for a TN Valley and upper Southeast Winter storm, but its not quite there yet. If the timing is different on the cold front coming in early next week, either further south or furthern north, that will make a bigger difference. Thats a really strong arctic high and will have low level bleed very far south, more so than usual since the trough is very pos. tilt in the Lakes.

It makes you wonder why that's for sure. I know a lot of those events though we had east to west convection that blocked moisture transport into nc. We often look and talk about the gulf coast convection doing this but if the convection is lined up across central ga to sc, the same thing happens. Certainly no complaints here, it's been damn nice not being in the middle of the screw zone.

As for next week, there is definately potential, especially for the carolinas. The 0z canadian looked very threatening, although a change to rain would be likely but it's not a given the low track is accurate..but the upper levels seem to support more damming than what is being shown on the gfs But the canadian was already showing strong damming early on. 12z run looks similar, maybe a touch warmer..it's hard to say with those crummy maps. As you said it's not totally there yet for a major one but plenty of time for that high/wedging to trend stronger and would like to see the polar vortex consolidate and orient nw to se and a bit further south. It's sort of rare for the models to show a strong damming event this far in advance fwiw so it Will be interesting to watch.

[FoothillsNC]

Oscillation's are not in favor for the southeast at this point in time. I wouldn't want to hype this system with the way the AO and NAO are positively increasing its rate of change. Availability of cold air will be hard to come by.

Theres a difference between hyping and laying out options from the models and using synoptics. I hope you dont think I'm calling for a Winter storm. I don't see anybody doing that, however I have seen some forecasts guaranteeing a big rain storm.

I was wondering the same thing...he probably thinks it will trend more NW in future runs. Care to explain Map?

That still doesn't explain why it would be a lakes cutter though.

aybe thats what he meant. But since this is a weather forum I think all weather options should be explained and talked about. From what I'm seeing on the models, a strong Arctic high in the nations midsection next week with overrunning precip in the Tenn. Valley looks legitmate, but its too early to say what type. I don't think a guarantee of rain is certain there yet.

[Weather Czar]

Snow storm can still happen with a + ao and nao. Hard to see a cutter with the PV setting up over Hudson bay. Still could be all rain in the mtns too. Just because the ao and Nao are positive does not automatically mean lakes cutter.

[DCMetroWinston]

Oscillation's are not in favor for the southeast at this point in time. I wouldn't want to hype this system with the way the AO and NAO are positively increasing its rate of change. Availability of cold air will be hard to come by.

The fact that a snowstorm almost occurred in the Triad yesterday (huge snowflakes) argues against that absolutist position, at least for North Carolina and Virginia.

[kanc2001]

I guess La Nina is finally asserting itself.....