NCBlizzard Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Denver is not out of the running at this point. Denver's sounding is actually pretty warm with a very pronounced warm nose. Maybe some snow but looks like more of a sleet/freezing rain to rain kinda situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Denver is not out of the running at this point. LOL! Or Seattle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I have a document that lists the major ice storms for NC/SC for the period 1950-1999. According to it, there was a very bad one 2/10-13/1994. Using this document, the first week in Feb. was awful for NC/SC during the period 1971-1996 with four major ZR's: 1971, 1975, 1979, and 1996 Not questioning you but I have got to ask .What is A ZR??????? One other thing .Yesterday morning ther was the most beautiful sundog outside and I read some in N C has thunder last night and this morning as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Not questioning you but I have got to ask .What is A ZR??????? ZR = freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I have a document that lists the major ice storms for NC/SC for the period 1950-1999. According to it, there was a very bad one 2/10-13/1994. Using this document, the first week in Feb. was awful for NC/SC during the period 1971-1996 with four major ZR's: 1971, 1975, 1979, and 1996 So you are saying there is a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 So you are saying there is a chance... Ok, now somebody's gotta post the Dumb ad Dumber clip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Phil, My money is on a lakes cutter and HP sliding out fast. So we end up with a cold rain instead of IP/ZR I posted the image for pure entertainment purpose. Never get excited over a 18z GFS @ week out. lol If it's a lakes cutter with the high nonexistent, then we may actually get a "warm" rain for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 So you are saying there is a chance... Like horseshoes and hand grenades....as long as it's close, there will always be a chance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 1996 is the one I remember. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I like how our precip-starved system is now dumping 3-4" per hour rates of snow in New Jersey and the NYC area. We could have used that QPF to get us out of the drought we seem to be spiraling into... Man, I'd love to be up there under that deformation band right about now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 So you are saying there is a chance... Yep. Based on the 0Z gfs, there is about a one in a million chance for major ZR on 2/2. So, indeed, there is a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Oscillation's do not look favorable for winter precipitation for North Carolina at least. NAO is also forecasted to positivity increase its rate of change in the new few days. Also, the AO is going to remain near neutral in the coming days. Also the PNA is forecasted to go down near or at February 1st. We are also in a La Nina. http://www.cpc.ncep....nnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Oscillation's do not look favorable for winter precipitation for North Carolina at least. NAO is also forecasted to positivity increase its rate of change in the new few days. Also, the AO is going to remain near neutral in the coming days. Also the PNA is forecasted to go down near or at February 1st. We are also in a La Nina. http://www.cpc.ncep....nnections.shtml Oh well, that probably lowers odds to one in a million. But at least there is a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I read that the Euro showed a weak coastal low and got rid of the Lakes Cutter? Anyone have any juicy details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It looks weird... held alot of energy back.. and slowly sent it out in pieces. First piece develops in the southern plains at 96 hours....850 temp line way north.. By hour 120 850 mb temp has sunk to central Va extending generally westward back toward northern Arkansas. Nice High to north at this point. At hour 144 it has the next piece developing in texas.... 168 already has the low about 100 miles off the north Carolina Coast.. :x Quick mover.. 850 mb temps sag even further south through most of the south east.. up to just south of the va/nc border at the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Shoot, Larry, I like those odds. After pulling the big snow at Christmas, getting a good sleet down here next week, against climo, ought to be a breeze. And I figure the cycle will bring back the blocking by mid Feb., if not earlier, so the time when climo says yes ought to be full of chances And the best part is ...no 70 degree days anywhere around. What a great couple of winters!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It looks weird... held alot of energy back.. and slowly sent it out in pieces. First piece develops in the southern plains at 96 hours....850 temp line way north.. I really wish you would post in here more, always enjoy when you visit us and give us your thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 BTW the Euro last night verbatim would give most of NC snow as Inudaw pointed out in the 2/2 - 2/4 time frame...however I'm betting the ens did not have the same solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 BTW the Euro last night verbatim would give most of NC snow as Inudaw pointed out in the 2/2 - 2/4 time frame...however I'm betting the ens did not have the same solution. Ensembles were in general further north (the mean at least.. don't have access to individual...) But they were significantly further south-and east of the prior ensemble run. 850 mb temp never got below Central Va on t he mean.... till after most of the moisture was gone. It was certainly not a lakes cutter or Appalachian runner though. No big low pressure system really developed at all..... mostly over running precip.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I think what might be the big kink in the teleconnections, is the big stratospheric warming that's forecasted to take place around the 1st according to DS. I'm not sure how or if the models even consider the stratosphere in their ingest but I'm guessing maybe not. According to DS, it would cause the AO to go extremely negative and very cold for us. Maybe the Euro does know about that? Here's the post Don S is another person on this board that I have great respect for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looking at the 6z GFS at face value (which I know is dangerous), a good portion of the typical CAD areas could be in for a really bad ice storm. Timeline maybe starts around hour 132 and doesn't stop until around hour 168. Large areas of greater .5 liquid. Looks like the 850 line wobbles between NC Vir boarder to S. Vir. with a strong high to the north (maybe more sleet in N. NC). I'm definitly interested in this potential (again I say potential). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I really wish you would post in here more, always enjoy when you visit us and give us your thoughts! I agree, I always like to hear what Inudaw has to say! I just checked out the 0z euro and like Inudaw said above it looks like a possible overrunning event in NC on Wednesday of next week. I'm a little surprised though because usually once the euro shows a lakes cutter you can take it to the bank. I have just been waiting for the gfs to switch to a lakes cutter but its possible the euro has caved. It will be interesting to see what future runs hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Oh well, that probably lowers odds to one in a million. But at least there is a chance. I at least feel a little better since this is not 9 or 10 days out, but there is no agreement on any models. With there being a Miller B, one storm getting here Tuesday and one getting here Wednesday, so lots of chagnes to be made, but the possibility is there. If the high holds together, it was stronger than this last one at 1044 and there was a huge ridge out west on the European, but that is only one run showing that, which is why the new European is not showing a lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I think what might be the big kink in the teleconnections, is the big stratospheric warming that's forecasted to take place around the 1st according to DS. I'm not sure how or if the models even consider the stratosphere in their ingest but I'm guessing maybe not. According to DS, it would cause the AO to go extremely negative and very cold for us. Maybe the Euro does know about that? Here's the post Don S is another person on this board that I have great respect for. I may be wrong but I think there is a 2 week lag between the Strat. warming and when it translates to cold weather for us at the lower levels.. I could be wrong though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looking at the 6z GFS at face value (which I know is dangerous), a good portion of the typical CAD areas could be in for a really bad ice storm. Timeline maybe starts around hour 132 and doesn't stop until around hour 168. Large areas of greater .5 liquid. Looks like the 850 line wobbles between NC Vir boarder to S. Vir. with a strong high to the north (maybe more sleet in N. NC). I'm definitly interested in this potential (again I say potential). Been showing this alot and kind of goes with the euro theme last night of overrunning. Nice that the HP has room to move east with gfs soulution since the parent HP builds in the central plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I may be wrong but I think there is a 2 week lag between the Strat. warming and when it translates to cold weather for us at the lower levels.. I could be wrong though You are correct, there is some lag, how much I don't know. I think it will be interesting to watch the correlation unfold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I may be wrong but I think there is a 2 week lag between the Strat. warming and when it translates to cold weather for us at the lower levels.. I could be wrong though A couple things to keep in mind about Strato warming episodes: 1) A warming event doesn't necessarily lead to blocking. The warming must be of sufficient magnitude and it must translate down to lower levels. If those criteria are met, then there is a correlation between warming and blocking. 2) There is no guarantee that if blocking occurs, it will be located/oriented in a favorable position for us. My understanding is that where the warming occurs is a key factor here. That being said, I'll take my chances with a warming event as opposed to not having one. I believe two weeks is about the time frame that one should see blocking set up, if it's going to occur. And the timing of this is fine with me, as it would put blocking in place, potentially, in the 2nd half Feb. into March. We need all the help we can get then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I agree, I always like to hear what Inudaw has to say! I just checked out the 0z euro and like Inudaw said above it looks like a possible overrunning event in NC on Wednesday of next week. I'm a little surprised though because usually once the euro shows a lakes cutter you can take it to the bank. I have just been waiting for the gfs to switch to a lakes cutter but its possible the euro has caved. It will be interesting to see what future runs hold. As Inudaw stated, the ECMWF ens mean shifted SE with a track from SE LA to just south of ME between 144 and 168 hrs, compared to the 12z mean which had it from the lower MS valley to PA-NY. The storm however is weaker on the 0z, around 5mb, which is sig considering this is a mean of the 50 EC members. The 0z UKMET closes off at H5 between 120 and 144 hrs over N TX with a 990 low centered over AR at 144, which would be destined for the Lakes, and a potential SVR event in the SE. The 0z op Euro is a winter wx event for RDU, starting around 12z Wed 2-2 (-RN prior to), with around 0.5" of QPF with surface temps below 0C and 850's going there shortly after. I don't have access to the 1000-850 mb thickness profiles, but the Skew-T's support SN as the dominant precip type after the changeover. CLT is somewhat similar, although not as cold as RDU with 850's going <0C (-0.4C) at 18z Wed, with surface temps around freezing at that time, or shortly after. Around 0.5" QPF also, but at-least half of that would be RN verbatim given what falls before 18z. The 0z Euro and UKMET solutions define the envelop as I see it, with most of the ens guidance falling somewhere in the middle. The 0z GGEM & GFS ens members still show some spread, with many issues that still need to be resolved. I am not as optimistic about this as compared to a couple days ago, the neg far out weigh the pos atm. This smells of marginal temps, and given a mean track through the TN Valley, or just east of that into western New England, the chances would be slim to none except for maybe a damning event in the favored regions if HP is in place over the NE, although that feature would likely be transient given the lack of blocking and PV location near the Hudson Bay. Looking forward, we may have to go through a warm up for the first week or two of Feb, before the major indices become more favorable for another widespread threat, and I am fine with that as the cold is getting old! 6z GFS ens members @ 150hrs 0z GGEM ens @ 156 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 As Inudaw stated, the ECMWF ens mean shifted SE with a track from SE LA to just south of ME between 144 and 168 hrs, compared to the 12z mean which had it from the lower MS valley to PA-NY. The storm however is weaker on the 0z, around 5mb, which is sig considering this is a mean of the 50 EC members. The 0z UKMET closes off at H5 between 120 and 144 hrs over N TX with a 990 low centered over AR at 144, which would be destined for the Lakes, and a potential SVR event in the SE. The 0z op Euro is a winter wx event for RDU, starting around 12z Wed 2-2 (-RN prior to), with around 0.5" of QPF with surface temps below 0C and 850's going there shortly after. I don't have access to the 1000-850 mb thickness profiles, but the Skew-T's support SN as the dominant precip type after the changeover. CLT is somewhat similar, although not as cold as RDU with 850's going <0C (-0.4C) at 18z Wed, with surface temps around freezing at that time, or shortly after. Around 0.5" QPF also, but at-least half of that would be RN verbatim given what falls before 18z. The 0z Euro and UKMET solutions define the envelop as I see it, with most of the ens guidance falling somewhere in the middle. The 0z GGEM & GFS ens members still show some spread, with many issues that still need to be resolved. I am not as optimistic about this as compared to a couple days ago, the neg far out weigh the pos atm. This smells of marginal temps, and given a mean track through the TN Valley, or just east of that into western New England, the chances would be slim to none except for maybe a damning event in the favored regions if HP is in place over the NE, although that feature would likely be transient given the lack of blocking and PV location near the Hudson Bay. Looking forward, we may have to go through a warm up for the first week or two of Feb, before the major indices become more favorable for another widespread threat, and I am fine with that as the cold is getting old! This is fine w/ me also. I could deal w/ a little warm up for a couple of weeks. There are a lot of things I need to do around the house but it has just been to cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 A warm up would be nice, but looks like the models are trending right now to something good next week. I wish Mother Nature would make up her mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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