Feb 2-4 Storm

[triadwx]

Yes, Tuesday and EARLY Wednesday will be rain but as the STRONG upper low rolls through it appears the Triad will get a good dose of snow late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. February could be a lot of fun, though!

Yeah, NAM dumps nice snow on us again. This would be the 4th straight time. Btw, what do you do? Are you a broadcast met? Or what?

[burgertime]

12z GFS looks interesting for next week , @168 the system is building back west and temps are descent should be interesting to see how it all plays out.

[GreensboroWx]

I work for Forsyth Co. Environmental Affairs Dept and do air quality forecasting along with aq monitoring and numerous other duties. Our dept handles the air quality forecast for the entire Triad. Basically, air quality is highly dependent on the weather, thus, when the weather does "A" then the air quality does "B" and so on. Therefore, the need of a meteorologist.

Yeah, NAM dumps nice snow on us again. This would be the 4th straight time. Btw, what do you do? Are you a broadcast met? Or what?

[WeatherNC]

12z GFS looks interesting for next week , @168 the system is building back west and temps are descent should be interesting to see how it all plays out.

[burgertime]

It looks like it's holding our system back for way too long and when it finally ejects towards us it takes the path we want it too. The ENS should be telling.

[tpsteffe]

12z GFS looks interesting for next week , @168 the system is building back west and temps are descent should be interesting to see how it all plays out.

The only concern I have, as with this upcoming system, is the continued lack of blocking/- west-based NAO. As of now, without those two it is going to require good timing between a high over the northeast and a southern stream system. I do however feel, there is potential for sure in this time frame for sure as I posted last evening.

[griteater]

The only concern I have, as with this upcoming system, is the continued lack of blocking/- west-based NAO. As of now, without those two it is going to require good timing between a high over the northeast and a southern stream system. I do however feel, there is potential for sure in this time frame for sure as I posted last evening.

Yeah, seems like we can get wintry weather without the strong blocking, but to get the storms that are all or nearly all snow east of the mtns, strong blocking is just essential.

[SnowNiner]

Yeah, seems like we can get wintry weather without the strong blocking, but to get the storms that are all or nearly all snow east of the mtns, strong blocking is just essential.

Well ok, that was my question. Were we to have blocking at this time frame? If not, I'm not buying it. HIGH just scoots out too easy, no cold feed. We need somebody to report to us not on a storm system that's coming up, but a blocking pattern that's going to re-establish. That's what I'm looking forward to first and foremost. Then the storm will come.

[griteater]

Well ok, that was my question. Were we to have blocking at this time frame? If not, I'm not buying it. HIGH just scoots out too easy, no cold feed. We need somebody to report to us not on a storm system that's coming up, but a blocking pattern that's going to re-establish. That's what I'm looking forward to first and foremost. Then the storm will come.

Not an expert on it by any means, but the blocking for tomorrow's system is weak...and yes, that's why the High scoots out to sea. I do see strong blocking on this morning's run of the GFS out past hr 204, but I hate the GFS past 2-3 days. Better to look at the Euro and Euro Ensembles that go out to 10 days...and there are Euro Weeklies that go past that, but only select folks have access to those.

[burgertime]

12z Euro says congrats OV next week

[DaculaWeather]

The stratospheric warming is forecast to begin around 2/1 +/- a few days according to Don. Cold air to plunge after that point.

[tnweathernut]

The stratospheric warming is forecast to begin around 2/1 +/- a few days according to Don. Cold air to plunge after that point.

I think the usual time frame for that to work it's way down to the lower 48 would be 2+ weeks. That would put us in mid February. Maybe we can send the winter of 2010-2011 out with a bang.

[Cold Rain]

Book it!!!

where is CR at, he needs to stamp the guarantee, this is one of our best chances of the season based on long range ens means!

Ok, so here's the deal with this one: the GFS, the CMC and the Euro all drop strong, Arctic high pressure in either Montana (the CMC is 1052MB!) or into the upper mid-west, in the case of the GFS. The GFS slowly sags the west-east Arctic front down into NC around that time frame and the 850s never really get above 0 for NC through the rest of the run, with the exception of a 12-18 hour period around hour 252. The Euro and the CMC do not drop the Arctic front through that early.

None of the models show a sustained west-base -NAO and certainly no Greenland block. Without that feature, no guarantees from Cold Rain. Period. However, I haven't seen the ensembles, so they might be telling a different story.

If the GFS is right in it's depiction of slowly dragging the Arctic front through (rather than blasting it through), then I think we should pay attention to the time right around the end of the month. High pressure should be in a favorable position. All we'll need is a wave coming along at the right time to interact with the cold. I haven't seen this setup in recent years, but I have seen it in the past. Waves developing on a slow-moving or stalled Arctic front can be excellent winter wx producers. And I wouldn't pay any attention to any particular S/Ws at this point. There's been so much energy in the flow this year, we'll more than likely have something to work with. I'm more concerned about whether or not we can stall out an Arctic front south of the area. Let that bad boy sit there for a couple of days, and with all the energy in the flow this year, we'll be in business. That, I'll guarantee.

Beyond that, the 2/2 - 2/4 time frame is as good as any to get a storm, but I'm not remarkably excited about it....yet.

All this is based off the 12Z run of the GFS. The CMC doesn't look that great through 180 and the EURO doesn't look that great through 240 in terms of winter storm potential. But that's fine, since it will change drastically at 0Z.

[bingcrosbyb]

00z Euro

[WeatherNC]

0z GGEM ens mean

6z GFS ens mean

0z ECMWF ens mean (long wave trough with a straight dump from the pole)

[strongwxnc]

This has been a great winter for tracking systems........Can not complain about that.

Good post WeatherNC.....

[SnowNiner]

0z GGEM ens mean

6z GFS ens mean

0z ECMWF ens mean (long wave trough with a straight dump from the pole)

That's Very Niiiiice!! Hopefully we can get one more storm for REAL in the southern piedmont/upstate before Spring. I'm going to start paying a lot more attention to the GGEM and the UKMET on these systems. It seems like they know what they're talking about. I think the last storm the EURO was a little late to the NW trend that the UKMET pretty much had a day or so prior.

Anyway, on to February!! Any new leads on a blocking pattern this morning? I'd really like to see something to keep that LOW from cutting up the Apps/GLs.

[Cold Rain]

I think we should pay close attn to the 1/30 to 2/1 time frame. Very possible for a favorably located high with a wave tracking to the south, ala the GFS. The maps WeatherNC posted reflect that. I don't really like the trough orientation on the Euro, but plenty of time for that to change.

[griteater]

Rare to see this type of agreement on these 7-10 day maps...

[UNCCmetgrad]

That's Very Niiiiice!! Hopefully we can get one more storm for REAL in the southern piedmont/upstate before Spring. I'm going to start paying a lot more attention to the GGEM and the UKMET on these systems. It seems like they know what they're talking about. I think the last storm the EURO was a little late to the NW trend that the UKMET pretty much had a day or so prior.

Anyway, on to February!! Any new leads on a blocking pattern this morning? I'd really like to see something to keep that LOW from cutting up the Apps/GLs.

Doesn't look like blocking will return in the near future. In fact if you look as the EURO Ens at day 10 below it shows a solidly positive NAO with that polar vortex over northeast Canada. Luckily the PNA stays strongly positive however. Without good blocking though, we will have a tougher time getting the proper timing we need for wintry precip. I think out best chances will come with weaker systems traveling along the gulf coast as anything that tries to wind up too much will try to track inland.

[Cold Rain]

What we need to look for 7-10 days out in this pattern is a wave moving along the Gulf and high pressure building in too late. If the trend of storms being delayed holds, the high pressure should be able to work in in concert with or just ahead of the system. Without blocking, high pressure won't hold for too long, so we'll need the good timing. Good thing is, there seems to be an endless supply of highs dropping out of Canada. Hopefully, they don't continuously drop out too far west...that is a possibility.

[SnowNiner]

Doesn't look like blocking will return in the near future. In fact if you look as the EURO Ens at day 10 below it shows a solidly positive NAO with that polar vortex over northeast Canada. Luckily the PNA stays strongly positive however. Without good blocking though, we will have a tougher time getting the proper timing we need for wintry precip. I think out best chances will come with weaker systems traveling along the gulf coast as anything that tries to wind up too much will try to track inland.

Yeah, well that's what I was afraid of. I don't put much stock in the perfect timing storms. Perhaps we'll run into some nice over running events with cold air in place? I guess we just won't be able to depend on CAD events at all. The cold will have to be coming down pretty strong from the mid-west keeping LOWs somewhat surpressed.......crap.

[burgertime]

Hello 12z GFS @ 200 hours

[griteater]

Doesn't look like blocking will return in the near future. In fact if you look as the EURO Ens at day 10 below it shows a solidly positive NAO with that polar vortex over northeast Canada. Luckily the PNA stays strongly positive however. Without good blocking though, we will have a tougher time getting the proper timing we need for wintry precip. I think out best chances will come with weaker systems traveling along the gulf coast as anything that tries to wind up too much will try to track inland.

Very good points here. The odd thing is that sometimes the weak little waves can generate good moisture once they hit the gulf.

[Lookout]

Hello 12z GFS @ 200 hours

Yeah that is good eye candy for sure. Good to see it hold on to this pattern because the euro is completely different. I hope it trends toward the gfs.

[burgertime]

Yeah that is good eye candy for sure. Good to see it hold on to this pattern because the euro is completely different. I hope it trends toward the gfs.

If it goes like this last storm your cliff will have raving screaming jumper.

[Cheeznado]

Doesn't look like blocking will return in the near future. In fact if you look as the EURO Ens at day 10 below it shows a solidly positive NAO with that polar vortex over northeast Canada. Luckily the PNA stays strongly positive however. Without good blocking though, we will have a tougher time getting the proper timing we need for wintry precip. I think out best chances will come with weaker systems traveling along the gulf coast as anything that tries to wind up too much will try to track inland

I was going to post the exact same thing. It is so much harder to get a good winter storm down here with no Atlantic blocking. Look at this current storm as an example- and the Euro ensembles say the early Feb. storm is also not likely to be snow, perhaps some ice but the surface HP systems that come in behind each system retreat rapidly and it looks like the same thing will happen again. We have to hope for one more blocking phase late next month or early March or maybe a lucky bit of timing- otherwise I say bring on spring and severe weather!

[WXinCanton]

I was going to post the exact same thing. It is so much harder to get a good winter storm down here with no Atlantic blocking. Look at this current storm as an example- and the Euro ensembles say the early Feb. storm is also not likely to be snow, perhaps some ice but the surface HP systems that come in behind each system retreat rapidly and it looks like the same thing will happen again. We have to hope for one more blocking phase late next month or early March or maybe a lucky bit of timing- otherwise I say bring on spring and severe weather!

I hope to be doing some chasing this year, got a new camera.. Can't wait

[Poimen]

you know what's funny? DT is back to woofing this up on his fb page. He shows today's GFS and basically says, "you see, I told you so." I find this funny because he was just trashing the GFS a couple days ago, citing things like there's no blocking so this(current storm) has to be an Apps runner,etc etc. Well, what has changed? There's still no blocking with the upcoming storm and yet Dave is tooting his own horn and using his favorite whipping boy (the GFS) to do so. I like DT but sometimes I have a hard time following his inconsistent reasoning.

Anyway, with regards to this next storm-it looks to me like it's either going to be suppression city or an inland/apps runner. As others have said, unless we can get that next high to anchor over the NE we'll probably end up with a non-wintry event in the SE.

[Brick Tamland]

you know what's funny? DT is back to woofing this up on his fb page. He shows today's GFS and basically says, "you see, I told you so." I find this funny because he was just trashing the GFS a couple days ago, citing things like there's no blocking so this(current storm) has to be an Apps runner,etc etc. Well, what has changed? There's still no blocking with the upcoming storm and yet Dave is tooting his own horn and using his favorite whipping boy (the GFS) to do so. I like DT but sometimes I have a hard time following his inconsistent reasoning.

Anyway, with regards to this next storm-it looks to me like it's either going to be suppression city or an inland/apps runner. As others have said, unless we can get that next high to anchor over the NE we'll probably end up with a non-wintry event in the SE.

So why would this not show on a model? I'm just trying to understand if this is usually what happens without that High, then why would a model still show snow?