jrips27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 IND looks screwed with major ice on the way. I'm sure someone will get 2 feet of snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flurry Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Jackson, MS biting tomorrow/tomorrow night: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 354 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011 ...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING... .LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A MIXTURE OF SLEET...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ARKLAMISS AREA. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...CAUSING IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST OF MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY...AND OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MSZ043-044-048>050-054-055-061-062-030600- /O.NEW.KJAN.WS.A.0002.110203T1800Z-110204T1500Z/ MADISON MS-LEAKE-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-COPIAH-SIMPSON-FRANKLIN MS- LINCOLN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON... CARTHAGE...JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST... MORTON...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE... MENDENHALL...BUDE...ROXIE...MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN 354 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. * TIMING: NOON THURSDAY UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY * MAIN IMPACT: A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE PERIODICALLY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. UP TO A HALF INCH OF ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. * OTHER IMPACTS: WHERE THE HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR...SOME POWER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AS ICE ACCUMULATES ON TREES AND POWERLINES. TRAVEL WILL ALSO LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MAY BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...AND GRADUALLY BRING AN IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS BETWEEN 3 AND 9 AM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING BY 9 AM FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Last gasp lol...guess we'll see if the RUC can offer any last glimmers for something frozen this weekend (wasn't sure which thread to use since tomorrow is the 3rd) Dewpoint is a decent 20. Hopefully the low dew points can hold out at least for the start of the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'd all but put this storm to bed but apparently bufkit starts out GSP as SNRNPL and Charlotte as pure snow. Of course, it doesnt last long but it's interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Light sleet falling here in Macon with this line going through. A nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'd all but put this storm to bed but apparently bufkit starts out GSP as SNRNPL and Charlotte as pure snow. Of course, it doesnt last long but it's interesting. Wow...GSP is seeing the same thing Jeremy: Belmont NCEnter Your "City, ST" or zip code var addthis_config = { ui_delay: 400} NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC Point Forecast: Belmont NC 35.27°N 81.05°WMobile Weather Information | En Español Last Update: 6:00 pm EST Feb 2, 2011 Forecast Valid: 10pm EST Feb 2, 2011-6pm EST Feb 9, 2011 Hi 46 °FThursday Night Chance Rain Lo 31 °FFriday Wintry Mix Hi 42 °FFriday Night Rain Lo 36 °FSaturday Rain Likely Hi 50 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Umm...CAD sig showing up on the NAM now (short range): http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_030l.gif Like QC alluded to, this thing is trying to sneak in a little surprise back under our nose, although for a brief time before warmup to rain. It will be interesting to see the WB temps tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'd all but put this storm to bed but apparently bufkit starts out GSP as SNRNPL and Charlotte as pure snow. Of course, it doesnt last long but it's interesting. Yeah, and the ground truth of sleet right now in Macon, GA suggests snow or sleet is highly likely at onset here in early Friday hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Anybody else think NWS might end up busting low on temps in N GA? Already 30.6oF and dropping here with a forecasted low of 28oF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Check out the radar (trends friends!): http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Light sleet falling here in Macon with this line going through. A nice surprise. Good deal! I was seeing that go by below me, and I was wondering. I sure hope you and I get hammered with sleet next week! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 You're right Weatherkid. I'm down to 27.1 already. Now if we can keep in the mid 30s tomorrow we are in business. I would like a January 2008 redo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Check out temp trends the last 45 minutes for my area (note wind direction): Edit (sorry about that): http://mesowest.utah...e.cgi?stn=D5686 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Has anyone looked at the RUC and/or SREF lately? Curious to see what they are showing for tomorrow/Friday? TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 the new Euro is extremely close to starting as snow in far north GA and se TN and western NC tomorrow night, perhaps a couple inches in the mountains. Of course the RUC is now the model to watch, but interesting to see how close the GFS and Euro now are. Precip begins overnight, so some sleet and snow is in order some places I think. I wouldn't be surprised to see some accum. sleet and snow in se Tn, sw NC and n. GA by Friday morning, the higher up the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 RGEM...2AM Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Light sleet mixed with rain here east of New Bern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Why am I just not excited at all on this one? Of course I'm downplaying it in the office so we will probably get the surprise snow out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I moved my precip typing GrEarth Radar over the affected area http://weatherobserv...ar_grearth2.htm Will take it a few mins to update to a full loop from that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I moved my precip typing GrEarth Radar over the affected area http://weatherobserv...ar_grearth2.htm Will take it a few mins to update to a full loop from that area Thank you! that is a great loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Going to be some surprises around here by morning. Precip is coming in faster and heavier than expected, and it should be quite cold through early morning with icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Going to be some surprises around here by morning. Precip is coming in faster and heavier than expected, and it should be quite cold through early morning with icing. NWS just hoisted Freezing rain advisories for north of your area. They sound a bit concerned in the disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Raleigh AFD .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY... CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM AS MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES RESOLVING THE CURRENT COVERAGE AND SPEED OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL CONSIST OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST WHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE RETREATING FROM THE REGION. THEREFORE...A HYBRID DAMNING SITUATION WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AND AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE...THIS MAY CAUSE A PRECIP TYPE PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET. WE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO WARM MUCH TODAY (STAYED IN THE UPPER 30 TO MID 40S) AS AMPLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM OVER THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS WILL TRAP THE OUTGOING RADIATION. AS A RESULT... OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH AND BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH. MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP...AND THIS IS GOING TO BE CRITICAL IN WHAT P-TYPE ULTIMATELY OCCURS. OVERALL...PRECIP HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY AND THIS IS SOMEWHAT REASONABLE LOOKING AT CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AFTER 06Z BEFORE GRADUALLY TRANSITING TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE MID/UPPER LAYERS WARM. HOWEVER...THE TRIAD REGION MAY SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINTERY PRECIP AS THE WET BULB ZERO LINE MOVES TO THE NORTH. IN FACT...THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE TYPICAL PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION THROUGH 18Z...BEFORE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SEES ALL RAIN. THERE COULD BE A SHORT WINDOW WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE TRIAD REGION. WE WILL INCLUDE THIS MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING NW... INTO THE 40S SE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINING NEARLY STEADY. RAIN WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE COAST. STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A HALF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Light sleet passing through currently south of CAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCTechster Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Where is everyone? Freezing rain advisory posted for western foothills and mountains. Winter weather advisory out for the Triad. Multiple stations across southern and eastern NC reporting sleet. NWS reported sleet sticking to roads in Wake County before melting. NWS Raleigh discussion follows.... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1045 PM THURSDAY... TONIGHT: HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM 4 AM UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING.CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT... AS PRECIP HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT HANDLING THIS VERY WELL. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING...SUPPLYING US WITH A SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. A BAND OF PRECIP CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WEST OF KCLT TO KGSB HAS PRODUCED A NARROW BAND OF SLEET AND RAIN THIS EVENING... PRODUCED BY A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. EXPECT THIS NARROW BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 64. GIVEN WET BULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE WE ARE ABLE TO EVAPORATIVELY COOL ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA EXPECT TO SEE LITTLE IMPACT FROM THE SLEET. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON FRIDAY (MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES). HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE TIMING OF THE GFS... AS IT APPEARS TO BE ON THE FAST AND NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE (CLOSER TO REALITY). THUS... GIVEN MODEL WET BULB TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING FROM 09Z THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO THAT AREA...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A NUISANCE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EVENT. HOWEVER... NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE ACCRUAL (MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES OR ELEVATED SURFACES) WITH MORNING TEMPS HOOVERING AROUND FREEZING. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORSYTH AND GUILFORD COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL TO 30 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK. MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER... DEPENDING ON WHEN THE PRECIP PROGRESS NORTHWEST THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPAND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND/OR EAST.PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CHANCE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY...HOWEVER... WITH AN IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT EXPECTED... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCTechster Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Guys, if you dont like NWS discussions posted please except my apologies....really wanted to post NWS out of BMX weather discussion. Here are some tidbits.... "THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AREA HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MORE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER MISSISSIPPI AS MAIN SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE INTO NW ALABAMA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW FREEZING."..."MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO SAY THE LEAST WITH THIS EVENT SO FAR...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...AS THE PRECIPITATION WAS MUCH HEAVIER THAN ANTICIPATED."...SO THE FIGHT HAS BEEN ON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. SPEAKING OF WHICH...I STILL FEEL LIKE WE ARE TEETERING ON THE ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA...SO WENT AHEAD WITH AN AVERAGE AREA TO JUSTIFY THE ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL AND SHELTERED AREAS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC WITH SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE TOTALS CLOSER OR EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA."... and from NWS HUN "...A RAPIDLY CHANGING AND CHALLENGING WEATHER FORECAST CONTINUES TONIGHT AS PRECIP TYPES HAVE BEEN CHANGING FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS ONLY SOMEWHAT HELPFUL...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSES HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY RULED THE FORECAST TONIGHT.""" wow....talk about nowcast situation.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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