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Feb 2-4 Storm


CarolinaCrusher2000

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Jackson, MS biting tomorrow/tomorrow night:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

354 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY

INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

.LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD A WINTRY

MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A MIXTURE

OF SLEET...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM

SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA

THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE

ENTIRE ARKLAMISS AREA. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SPREAD

INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...CAUSING

IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER

AIR WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST OF MISSISSIPPI

BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY...AND OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY

AFTERNOON.

MSZ043-044-048>050-054-055-061-062-030600-

/O.NEW.KJAN.WS.A.0002.110203T1800Z-110204T1500Z/

MADISON MS-LEAKE-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-COPIAH-SIMPSON-FRANKLIN MS-

LINCOLN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...

CARTHAGE...JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...

MORTON...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...

MENDENHALL...BUDE...ROXIE...MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN

354 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY

MORNING.

* TIMING: NOON THURSDAY UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY

* MAIN IMPACT: A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SHOULD DEVELOP FROM

THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE PERIODICALLY THROUGH

THURSDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING OF

THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. UP TO A HALF INCH OF ICE AND SLEET

ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: WHERE THE HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR...SOME

POWER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AS ICE ACCUMULATES ON TREES AND POWERLINES.

TRAVEL WILL ALSO LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MAY

BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...AND GRADUALLY BRING

AN IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS BETWEEN 3 AND 9 AM. TEMPERATURES

SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING BY 9 AM FRIDAY.

:scooter:

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Last gasp lol...guess we'll see if the RUC can offer any last glimmers for something frozen this weekend (wasn't sure which thread to use since tomorrow is the 3rd)

Dewpoint is a decent 20. Hopefully the low dew points can hold out at least for the start of the precip

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I'd all but put this storm to bed but apparently bufkit starts out GSP as SNRNPL and Charlotte as pure snow. Of course, it doesnt last long but it's interesting.

Wow...GSP is seeing the same thing Jeremy:

Belmont NCskipgraphic.gifnavbarleft.jpgEnter Your "City, ST" or zip code lg-bookmark-en.gifvar addthis_config = { ui_delay: 400} NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Point Forecast: Belmont NC

35.27°N 81.05°WMobile Weather Information | En Español

Last Update: 6:00 pm EST Feb 2, 2011

Forecast Valid: 10pm EST Feb 2, 2011-6pm EST Feb 9, 20117dayfcst.jpg

Hi 46 °FThursday

Night

nra30.jpg

Chance

Rain

Lo 31 °FFriday

mix90.jpg

Wintry

Mix

Hi 42 °FFriday

Night

nra100.jpg

Rain

Lo 36 °FSaturday

ra70.jpg

Rain

Likely

Hi 50 °F

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Umm...CAD sig showing up on the NAM now (short range):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_030l.gif

Like QC alluded to, this thing is trying to sneak in a little surprise back under our nose, although for a brief time before warmup to rain. It will be interesting to see the WB temps tomorrow...

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the new Euro is extremely close to starting as snow in far north GA and se TN and western NC tomorrow night, perhaps a couple inches in the mountains. Of course the RUC is now the model to watch, but interesting to see how close the GFS and Euro now are. Precip begins overnight, so some sleet and snow is in order some places I think. I wouldn't be surprised to see some accum. sleet and snow in se Tn, sw NC and n. GA by Friday morning, the higher up the better.

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Raleigh AFD

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM AS MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES

RESOLVING THE CURRENT COVERAGE AND SPEED OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE

SOUTHEAST. OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL CONSIST OF A

WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST WHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH

WILL BE RETREATING FROM THE REGION. THEREFORE...A HYBRID DAMNING

SITUATION WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AND AS IS NORMALLY THE

CASE...THIS MAY CAUSE A PRECIP TYPE PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AT THE

ONSET. WE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO WARM MUCH TODAY (STAYED IN THE UPPER

30 TO MID 40S) AS AMPLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM OVER THE

REGION. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT

AS THESE CLOUDS WILL TRAP THE OUTGOING RADIATION. AS A RESULT...

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE

NORTH AND BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO THE ONSET OF

THE PRECIP...AND THIS IS GOING TO BE CRITICAL IN WHAT P-TYPE

ULTIMATELY OCCURS. OVERALL...PRECIP HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY AND THIS IS

SOMEWHAT REASONABLE LOOKING AT CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS.

THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX

AFTER 06Z BEFORE GRADUALLY TRANSITING TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO

NORTH AS THE MID/UPPER LAYERS WARM. HOWEVER...THE TRIAD REGION MAY

SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINTERY PRECIP AS THE WET BULB ZERO LINE

MOVES TO THE NORTH. IN FACT...THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING RAIN

ACROSS THE TYPICAL PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION THROUGH 18Z...BEFORE THE

ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SEES ALL RAIN. THERE COULD BE A SHORT WINDOW

WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN MAY BE NEEDED FOR

THE TRIAD REGION. WE WILL INCLUDE THIS MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS

WEATHER OUTLOOK. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR

TWO ABOVE FREEZING NW... INTO THE 40S SE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT

REMAINING NEARLY STEADY.

RAIN WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACK

ALONG THE COAST. STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A HALF

AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER FURTHER SOUTH

AND EAST.-- End Changed Discussion --

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Where is everyone? Freezing rain advisory posted for western foothills and mountains. Winter weather advisory out for the Triad. Multiple stations across southern and eastern NC reporting sleet. NWS reported sleet sticking to roads in Wake County before melting. NWS Raleigh discussion follows....

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 1045 PM THURSDAY...

TONIGHT:

HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN

AND SLEET FROM 4 AM UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING.CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT... AS PRECIP

HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT HANDLING THIS VERY WELL. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE

CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING...SUPPLYING US WITH A SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. A BAND

OF PRECIP CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WEST OF KCLT TO KGSB HAS PRODUCED A NARROW BAND OF SLEET AND RAIN THIS EVENING... PRODUCED

BY A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER

LEVEL JET. EXPECT THIS NARROW BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 64. GIVEN WET BULB

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE WE ARE ABLE TO EVAPORATIVELY COOL ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA EXPECT TO SEE

LITTLE IMPACT FROM THE SLEET. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON FRIDAY (MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES). HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE TIMING OF THE GFS... AS IT APPEARS TO BE ON THE FAST AND NORTH SIDE OF THE

GUIDANCE (CLOSER TO REALITY). THUS... GIVEN MODEL WET BULB TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING FROM

09Z THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO THAT AREA...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A NUISANCE FREEZING

RAIN/SLEET EVENT. HOWEVER... NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE ACCRUAL (MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES OR ELEVATED SURFACES) WITH

MORNING TEMPS HOOVERING AROUND FREEZING. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORSYTH AND GUILFORD

COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL TO 30 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK. MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S

SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER... DEPENDING ON WHEN THE PRECIP PROGRESS NORTHWEST THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPAND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH

AND/OR EAST.PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CHANCE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY...HOWEVER... WITH AN IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT EXPECTED...

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Guys, if you dont like NWS discussions posted please except my apologies....really wanted to post NWS out of BMX weather discussion. Here are some tidbits....

"THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AREA HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MORE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER MISSISSIPPI AS MAIN SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE INTO NW ALABAMA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW FREEZING."..."MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO SAY THE LEAST WITH THIS EVENT SO FAR...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...AS THE PRECIPITATION WAS MUCH HEAVIER THAN ANTICIPATED."...SO THE FIGHT HAS BEEN ON AND WILL

CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. SPEAKING OF WHICH...I STILL FEEL LIKE WE ARE

TEETERING ON THE ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA...SO WENT AHEAD WITH AN AVERAGE AREA TO JUSTIFY THE ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL AND

SHELTERED AREAS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC WITH SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE TOTALS CLOSER OR EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA."...

and from NWS HUN

"...A RAPIDLY CHANGING AND CHALLENGING WEATHER FORECAST CONTINUES TONIGHT AS PRECIP TYPES HAVE BEEN CHANGING FROM SNOW TO

SLEET TO RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS ONLY SOMEWHAT HELPFUL...SATELLITE AND RADAR

TRENDS ALONG WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSES HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY RULED THE FORECAST TONIGHT.""":drunk:

wow....talk about nowcast situation....

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