rduwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 at 144 heavy precip still covering NC/SC/Ga but temps still suck. Basically this is a big ol' rain storm on the euro. This would be a huge storm for us if we just had some cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro has the development off the SE coast at 144 hrs, although it looks a little warm at 850 for dendrites. Energy does eject from the sw, and H5 looks rather interesting with the parcel coming down on the backside possibly helping in straightening out the trough axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 at 144 heavy precip still covering NC/SC/Ga but temps still suck. Basically this is a big ol' rain storm on the euro. This would be a huge storm for us if we just had some cold! yep, big RN storm this run, although it did shift to the coast compared to the 12z run which ran the low inland. Similar to 12z though with 850's around 5-7C here, and 4C at RDU, however we have another 4-5 days of oscillations and it could go either way. OTS around 168 so that is at-least 1 step in the right direction 0z GFS members at 126 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 I was reading DT's Facebook page and he said early Sunday Models are showing more of a South and East Trend with the lows next Wednesday and Saturday. This could result in Snow for Central and Eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 We might as well get snow without all the main teleconnections, because we've done it already with a -AO , -NAO and no +PNA. Now we have just a +PNA and no -AO and _NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What a juicy storm for Ok, Mo. Chicago to Detroit. They should get a big snowstorm from this next storm. The models are print out around 1.5" to 2.0" in and around northern Illinois to northern Missouri, all snow there. Its a classic strong gradient storm. Easily some 1 foot amounts and greater for those folks. After this storm goes by we in the Southeast and Tenn Valley have to see how the western baggage is handled as it comes east. But no model is dropping our temps that much, so for many temps would be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What a juicy storm for Ok, Mo. Chicago to Detroit. They should get a big snowstorm from this next storm. The models are print out around 1.5" to 2.0" in and around northern Illinois to northern Missouri, all snow there. Its a classic strong gradient storm. Easily some 1 foot amounts and greater for those folks. After this storm goes by we in the Southeast and Tenn Valley have to see how the western baggage is handled as it comes east. But no model is dropping our temps that much, so for many temps would be a problem. Yeah they sound really excited about this one up in their subforum. Chicago supposed to get 14-18"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah they sound really excited about this one up in their subforum. Chicago supposed to get 14-18"! some areas , hard to say where due to moisture being robbed, etc, but I wouldn't be surprised if the 2 foot mark was reached. This would be on the nw shield of the strong 850 low, which is extremely impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 some areas , hard to say where due to moisture being robbed, etc, but I wouldn't be surprised if the 2 foot mark was reached. This would be on the nw shield of the strong 850 low, which is extremely impressive. I've been hanging out in the Central/Western forum for a few days to follow this thing.... Chicago gets 2.4"ish QPF all snow this run of the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What a juicy storm for Ok, Mo. Chicago to Detroit. They should get a big snowstorm from this next storm. The models are print out around 1.5" to 2.0" in and around northern Illinois to northern Missouri, all snow there. Its a classic strong gradient storm. Easily some 1 foot amounts and greater for those folks. After this storm goes by we in the Southeast and Tenn Valley have to see how the western baggage is handled as it comes east. But no model is dropping our temps that much, so for many temps would be a problem. Posted back in the tread that my Mom moved to Joplin,MO last year. I have been watching this storm for the past couple days. Looks like she will have to contend with a mixed bag to begin with & there is always the NW model shift that is possible. Chances are she is in for something she has no idea about as she moved from Ft Lauderdale. I am excited for her but, truth be told I wish it was mby! Here is part of the NWS-Sprinfield AFD that covers Joplin: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVES EAST TUESDAY AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS SOUTHERN JET WILL COUPLE WITH A DEPARTING NORTHERN JET WITH THE AREA OF COUPLED LIFT DEVELOPING OVER MISSOURI. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN THE OVERALL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LIFT THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS. THE AMPLE LIFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SOUTHERN JET REMAINS OVER THE OZARKS DESPITE THE NORTHERN JET LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION. THE SHEAR AMOUNT OF LIFT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SNOW GREATLY DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES SOUTH. MODELS TEND TO UNDER DO THE SPEED AND DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF THESE TYPES OF ARCTIC SYSTEM. THE MODELS ALL SHOW THE 0-1KM ZERO DEGREE TEMPERATURES THROUGH ALL BUT THE WEST PLAINS AREA OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 18Z TUESDAY. WOULD EXPECT THIS IN AROUND 2 TO 3 HOURS TO SLOW AND HAVE SHOWN A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW FOR THE OZARKS BY NOON TUESDAY. HAVE TRIED TO TEMPER THE OUTPUT SOMEWHAT GOING WITH A 10 TO 1 RATION FOR SNOWFALL THOUGH A RANGE OF 8-12 TO 1 WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE CURRENT THOUGHTS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 WITH 6-12 INCHES SOUTH OF I-44. IN ADDITION, THE INITIAL FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE FROM A GLAZE TO QUARTER INCH NORTH OF I-44 TO AS MUCH AS THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. ANALOGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CORRELATION TO THE SNOW STORMS OF DECEMBER 2002 WHICH PRODUCED AS MUCH AS 16 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME THERMAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ALONG WITH SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTPUT THAT WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE OZARKS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE REGION. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION INTO MID WEEK...THE A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OZARKS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGIT LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS NEARING 20 BELOW ZERO AS WINDS GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND COLD AIR SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE TEENS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK AS A RESULT. THIS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADS AS BLOWING SNOW AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MAKE DRIVING AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DANGEROUS. NEAR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOWFALL FINALLY TAPERS OF EARLY WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Chicago would be shut down far worse than NYC was several weeks ago if they got 2.4" pf QPF in the form of snow. Crazy potential for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Truly could be a historic storm for some areas up there. Sounds like those on the line are worried about the infamous NW trend, I would be too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Kinda shocked no one has mentioned the severe weather potential for Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday for the Southeast. Helicity values are off the charts. It will be an interesting setup to monitor. I mean, if we can't get a PDS Winter Storm Warning like the folks in Oklahoma, at least we can look at severe weather, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Chicago would be shut down far worse than NYC was several weeks ago if they got 2.4" pf QPF in the form of snow. Crazy potential for them. I'm pulling for them...I love Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Kinda shocked no one has mentioned the severe weather potential for Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday for the Southeast. Helicity values are off the charts. It will be an interesting setup to monitor. I mean, if we can't get a PDS Winter Storm Warning like the folks in Oklahoma, at least we can look at severe weather, right? I'd like to hear more... unfortunately, I'm a complete noob at deciphering model outputs or anything like that, so I have nothing of value to add Getting close to severe season here; maybe this year will be more interesting than the last one was... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pathfinder Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm pulling for them...I love Chicago. Ditto. I don't miss living there but damn what I'd give to be there for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not a done deal as the heaviest snow could go just a bit south of the city. I fly into Boston Logan Tuesday morning. Should be some interesting weather there. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 tonights GFS is just phenomenal for the Midwest and eastern Plains . At 48 hours the 5H system is cutoff in northwest Ark, and the low strengthens to 992. The QPF is around 2" from Southbend to central Missouri. Somewhere just north of St. Louis to very near downtown Chicago or maybe just south of town will take a direct hit from the dynamics and close to 20" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 tonights GFS is just phenomenal for the Midwest and eastern Plains . At 48 hours the 5H system is cutoff in northwest Ark, and the low strengthens to 992. The QPF is around 2" from Southbend to central Missouri. Somewhere just north of St. Louis to very near downtown Chicago or maybe just south of town will take a direct hit from the dynamics and close to 20" of snow. Indianapolis just misses an absolutely catastrophic ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Indianapolis just misses an absolutely catastrophic ice storm. check out the gradient on this storm. The 850 low I think was around 5 or 6 closed contours. We jump for joy here to see one 2 contours closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not a done deal as the heaviest snow could go just a bit south of the city. I fly into Boston Logan Tuesday morning. Should be some interesting weather there. TW I'm headed to Hartford Tuesday night and trying to fly back on Wednesday afternoon. After watching those folks clear two feet of snow in less than 24 hours a few weeks back, I've got no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Nice to see the models nail lakes cutter/apps runner events dead on . Anyway the coverage area for this event is absolutely HUGE. Should impact about 100 million people or so. Of course for us we are not a part of that group. We better get the blocking back soon or it is game over for 2010-2011! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm not going to complain about the rain, we need it. But damn, the models can get this storm right but can't get the ones down here? What's up with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Nice to see the models nail lakes cutter/apps runner events dead on . Anyway the coverage area for this event is absolutely HUGE. Should impact about 100 million people or so. Of course for us we are not a part of that group. We better get the blocking back soon or it is game over for 2010-2011! My brother is close to the hot spot in Decatur IL which is almost dead center in IL. He is going to get clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My brother is close to the hot spot in Decatur IL which is almost dead center in IL. He is going to get clobbered. This is one storm I'd love to be a part of. It might be the most impressive storm I've ever seen modeled in the Mo/Ill. region since I've been following weather. The GFS has 6 contours on the 850 as it approaches St. Louis. So central Mo just west of STL by 36 hours is getting clobbered, and the 5H is closed in the Mo. Bootheel. Someone is going to get some 3" per hour rates and thundersnow to beat the band. Their version of our '93 storm (by 42 hours its 7 contours!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is one storm I'd love to be a part of. It might be the most impressive storm I've ever seen modeled in the Mo/Ill. region since I've been following weather. The GFS has 6 contours on the 850 as it approaches St. Louis. So central Mo just west of STL by 36 hours is getting clobbered, and the 5H is closed in the Mo. Bootheel. Someone is going to get some 3" per hour rates and thundersnow to beat the band. Their version of our '93 storm (by 42 hours its 7 contours!!) This is the reason I don't mind an ice storm, I grew up with alot of them...lol. My old stomping grounds is gonna get hit with some nasty weather DAY......... NAM 12z 110201/0500Z 29 08009KT 26.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110201/0600Z 30 08009KT 26.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.01 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110201/0700Z 31 06008KT 27.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.02 0| 0|100 110201/0800Z 32 03009KT 27.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.04 0| 0|100 110201/0900Z 33 03010KT 25.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 0.05 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.05 0| 0|100 110201/1000Z 34 04010KT 25.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.043|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.05|| 0.10 0| 0|100 110201/1100Z 35 04009KT 25.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.091|| 0.19 0.00|| 0.00 0.10|| 0.19 0| 0|100 110201/1200Z 36 05010KT 29.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.047|| 0.23 0.00|| 0.00 0.05|| 0.24 0| 0|100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110201/1300Z 37 04009KT 29.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.079|| 0.31 0.00|| 0.00 0.08|| 0.33 0| 0|100 110201/1400Z 38 03010KT 29.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.091|| 0.40 0.00|| 0.00 0.10|| 0.42 0| 0|100 110201/1500Z 39 02011KT 27.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.051|| 0.45 0.00|| 0.00 0.05|| 0.48 0| 0|100 110201/1600Z 40 04011KT 25.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.020|| 0.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.50 0| 3| 97 110201/1700Z 41 04010KT 26.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.50 0| 0| 0 110201/1800Z 42 03011KT 26.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.50 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110201/1900Z 43 04013KT 26.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.50 0| 0| 0 110201/2000Z 44 05012KT 27.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.48 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.50 0| 3| 97 110201/2100Z 45 04014KT 26.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.48 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.50 0| 6| 94 110201/2200Z 46 05016KT 27.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.031|| 0.51 0.00|| 0.00 0.03|| 0.54 0| 2| 98 110201/2300Z 47 05018KT 26.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 0.53 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.55 0| 1| 99 110202/0000Z 48 06018KT 27.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.031|| 0.56 0.00|| 0.00 0.03|| 0.59 0| 1| 99 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110202/0100Z 49 06019KT 27.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.142|| 0.70 0.00|| 0.00 0.15|| 0.74 0| 0|100 110202/0200Z 50 06018KT 28.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.114|| 0.81 0.00|| 0.00 0.12|| 0.86 0| 0|100 110202/0300Z 51 06019KT 28.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.157|| 0.97 0.00|| 0.00 0.17|| 1.02 0| 0|100 110202/0400Z 52 07020KT 28.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.161|| 1.13 0.00|| 0.00 0.17|| 1.19 0| 0|100 110202/0500Z 53 07018KT 30.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.209|| 1.34 0.00|| 0.00 0.22|| 1.41 0| 0|100 110202/0600Z 54 06014KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.102|| 1.44 0.00|| 0.00 0.11|| 1.52 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110202/0700Z 55 06014KT 32.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.039|| 1.48 0.00|| 0.00 0.04|| 1.56 0| 0|100 110202/0800Z 56 06012KT 32.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.071|| 1.56 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 0| 0|100 110202/0900Z 57 07011KT 32.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.059|| 1.61 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 0| 0|100 110202/1000Z 58 07009KT 32.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.024|| 1.64 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 0| 0|100 110202/1100Z 59 07006KT 32.4F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 1.65 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 0| 0|100 110202/1200Z 60 VRB02KT 32.2F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 1.66 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110202/1300Z 61 23010KT 33.1F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 1.67 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 0| 0|100 110202/1400Z 62 23013KT 32.4F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 1.67 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 0| 0|100 110202/1500Z 63 23014KT 30.4F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.008|| 1.68 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 100| 0| 0 110202/1600Z 64 24017KT 28.6F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.008|| 1.69 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 100| 0| 0 110202/1700Z 65 26018KT 26.6F SNOW 15:1| 0.1|| 0.2 0.008|| 1.70 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 100| 0| 0 110202/1800Z 66 27018KT 25.3F SNOW 20:1| 0.1|| 0.3 0.004|| 1.70 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110202/1900Z 67 28017KT 25.0F SNOW 22:1| 0.2|| 0.5 0.008|| 1.71 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 100| 0| 0 110202/2000Z 68 29017KT 24.1F SNOW 23:1| 0.2|| 0.7 0.008|| 1.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 100| 0| 0 110202/2100Z 69 29017KT 23.4F SNOW 23:1| 0.1|| 0.8 0.004|| 1.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 100| 0| 0 110202/2200Z 70 30016KT 22.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.8 0.000|| 1.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 0| 0| 0 110202/2300Z 71 30015KT 21.7F SNOW 22:1| 0.1|| 0.9 0.004|| 1.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 1.56 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is one storm I'd love to be a part of. It might be the most impressive storm I've ever seen modeled in the Mo/Ill. region since I've been following weather. The GFS has 6 contours on the 850 as it approaches St. Louis. So central Mo just west of STL by 36 hours is getting clobbered, and the 5H is closed in the Mo. Bootheel. Someone is going to get some 3" per hour rates and thundersnow to beat the band. Their version of our '93 storm (by 42 hours its 7 contours!!) I've told him he is going to get drilled and the 12z runs today just keep confirming that. I'll post some results of his area as I can get them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I've told him he is going to get drilled and the 12z runs today just keep confirming that. I'll post some results of his area as I can get them. What is really making this system so dangerous is the fact that the origin of the high is pure arctic! The low doesn't seem to intense at first glance, since its only a shade sub 1000 mb. However, when you combine that with a 1050mb + high located just to the NW, that sets up one insane gradient similar to the likes of March 1993. Just an insane pressure gradient. Widespread Blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warmbias Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Kinda shocked no one has mentioned the severe weather potential for Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday for the Southeast. Helicity values are off the charts. It will be an interesting setup to monitor. I mean, if we can't get a PDS Winter Storm Warning like the folks in Oklahoma, at least we can look at severe weather, right? With just a quick glance at the most recent GFS and NAM, I can't say I see much pointing to a severe weather event for the southeast. While you are right that the helicity and shear values are pretty impressive, the CAPE is just plain missing. Despite the impressively warm temperatures expected across the southeast on Wednesday, the low level air looks to remain fairly dry and the mid levels are fairly warm, thus we are not seeing much in the way of CAPE. With the CAPE being between 1 and 250 J/kg (as contoured on Twister Data) and shear values greater than 70kts it is pretty hard to sustain updrafts for long as they quickly get toppled by the shear. I wouldn't rule out some rumbles of thunder across the southeast on Wednesday as the cold front pushes through, but I don't see a big severe event in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 With just a quick glance at the most recent GFS and NAM, I can't say I see much pointing to a severe weather event for the southeast. While you are right that the helicity and shear values are pretty impressive, the CAPE is just plain missing. Despite the impressively warm temperatures expected across the southeast on Wednesday, the low level air looks to remain fairly dry and the mid levels are fairly warm, thus we are not seeing much in the way of CAPE. With the CAPE being between 1 and 250 J/kg (as contoured on Twister Data) and shear values greater than 70kts it is pretty hard to sustain updrafts for long as they quickly get toppled by the shear. I wouldn't rule out some rumbles of thunder across the southeast on Wednesday as the cold front pushes through, but I don't see a big severe event in the making. I agree. Shear and Helicity are no problem but we have no instability. This storm just plain blows for our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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