Marion_NC_WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I gotta believe with this upcoming Tuesday storm bombing out and dragging down the cold...we'll have enough high pressure in place late in the week to allow maybe some NW trend but nothing dramatic like we had with the previous storm. GFS is definitely an interesting run tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Took a break from playing QWOP to look the GFS over... this storm is guaranteed to produce snow here. Bank on it. Ok, I'm going to hold you to that chapelhillwx!... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Let me translate for the 0z GFS: Congratulations, Chicago @ 132 hr ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ok, I'm going to hold you to that chapelhillwx!... Oh, you thought I was being funny... .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not too shabby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 it would be nice to see other guidance come in line with the GFS tonight. At first glance I'd say the 0Z NAM supports the general idea of the H5 trough coming out sooner, rather than later too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It does look interesting, I just wish the euro would pick up on this also. If tonights gfs was right though, we could see some good times next Friday. The Euro had this storm on the 12z run. Look at hours 144-162. Was just a tad too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 FWIW...... (aka nothing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The Euro had this storm on the 12z run. Look at hours 144-162. Was just a tad too warm. Ah ok, to be honest I didn't even look at the 12z euro today. I did check the 0z euro last night and didn't see it. Thanks for the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The Euro had this storm on the 12z run. Look at hours 144-162. Was just a tad too warm. Yeah, the EURO had it. It was slower ejecting the H5 trough out of the southwest. Thus it was slower, further west, and much warmer (for us). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah, the EURO had it. It was slower ejecting the H5 trough out of the southwest. Thus it was slower, further west, and much warmer (for us). I know I'm going to regret saying this but here goes...Holding the energy back in the southwest is a bias the euro does have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z GGEM gave us 2 apps runners...just lovely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I know I'm going to regret saying this but here goes...Holding the energy back in the southwest is a bias the euro does have. right...the problem is the GGEM/UK and JMA were all doing it too. We'll see what happens. If one, or more, of those other models trend toward the GFS tonight then we might be on to something. I'm staying up for the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 eh...through 96 hours the GGEM still has that big bowling ball in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 eh...through 96 hours the GGEM still has that big bowling bowl in the SW. And a 1045 high in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 right...the problem is the GGEM/UK and JMA were all doing it too. We'll see what happens. If one, or more, of those other models trend toward the GFS tonight then we might be on to something. I'm staying up for the GGEM. 0z UKMET is starting to catch on, but we are still in the 144 hr range so expect lots of changes. It has a weak 1015mb'ish low off the SE coast, and a sw trough moving through E TX into LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 FWIW...... (aka nothing) What a nice TRIANGLE OF WIN for central/eastern NC/SC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Took a break from playing QWOP to look the GFS over... this storm is guaranteed to produce snow here. Bank on it. I don't think we can bank on it until we get the Cold Rain guarantee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GGEM and GFS are worlds apart at h5 at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GGEM and GFS are worlds apart at h5 at 96 hours. The GGEM pretty much sucks in this range. The GFS actually has better verification scores than it at this range overall, which isn't saying much. That's not to say we should discount its solution, but if we're going to poke fun at the GFS, then let's poke some fun at the GGEM, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GGEM pretty much sucks in this range. The GFS actually has better verification scores than it at this range overall, which isn't saying much. That's not to say we should discount its solution, but if we're going to poke fun at the GFS, then let's poke some fun at the GGEM, too! lol, I'm down with that. However, the GGEM looks just like the 12Z Euro at h5 at that time (or very close). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GGEM pretty much sucks in this range. The GFS actually has better verification scores than it at this range overall, which isn't saying much. That's not to say we should discount its solution, but if we're going to poke fun at the GFS, then let's poke some fun at the GGEM, too! Haha, looks like the snow triangle of win (should I make that term official?) is messing with your mind. Just when my sleep patterns were getting back to normal... thanks GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GGEM and GFS are worlds apart at h5 at 96 hours. GFS and UKMet look similar to me at 96...with GGEM more closed and more SW with the upper low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 With GGEM slower to kick out the low in the SW, it allows more warming to take place in the east at 144...but it was slightly faster at kicking it out compared to the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Haha, looks like the snow triangle of win (should I make that term official?) is messing with your mind. Just when my sleep patterns were getting back to normal... thanks GFS. At the range we're at, we get these verification stats. 500 mb: Surface: Looks like the UKMet has been struggling lately and the GFS is actually giving the Euro a tough fight. Changed a lot since I last looked at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Almost Euro time! Anyone on here right now have access to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Almost Euro time! Anyone on here right now have access to it? I do but I suck at pbp...Robert's here reading I see, maybe he can post something if he sees anything interesting. I can barely hold my eyes open right now so I might see something that isn't there... Btw it's out to 54 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Here is a snippet from the afternoon AFD (Sat :1-29) from NWS-GSP regarding the long term (next Thurs-Sat timeframe: TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM DAYS 6 THROUGH NEW DAY 7. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND MOVES IT TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED TO THIS POINT...WOULD RATHER HOLD OFF TO SEE IF OTHER MODELS JOINT IN ON THIS SOLUTION. THE GFS DOES DEVELOP A LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BUT WAITS UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC AT 12Z SUNDAY. CURRENTLY GOING FOR LOWS IN THE LAST PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S...BUT ECMWF SHOWS A TIGHTER THICKNESS GRADIENT OF COURSE WITH THE LOW PASSAGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WE WILL SEE IN UPCOMING MODEL RUNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The timing looks better on the 0z euro...at hr 132 precip is in E. NC, most of SC and Ga....the euro looks a little warmer though. 850 line running across the Va/NC border....at hr 138 precip covering all of NC/SC/Ga. but 2m temps suck...the euro is a lot warmer than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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