WeatherNC Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 La nina finally getting herself into the action. I think mr big dog is on the money with his outlook. Crappy spring this year, if you like a normal one. I just read his disco since you mentioned it... What strikes me as interesting is "one of the great false springs in memory" for the SE. In typical JB fashion, he likes to throw the extreme tag on just about everything, however, that could imply a sig severe season for us in the SE as the cold collides with established warmth. This is inline with my thinking that we are in for a action packed Spring in terms of severe weather given past history with strong nina's waning in late winter, even though this one is not weakening as much as expected. 06z DGEX develops the trailing s/w after the lakes cutter passes and gives the south an pretty significant ice/snow storm. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html Thanks for pointing that out, nothing like at 192 hr DGEX SN map to brighten the mood on an otherwise uneventful day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The GFS is a lakes cutter...looks really cold out west once it swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I just read his disco since you mentioned it... What strikes me as interesting is "one of the great false springs in memory" for the SE. In typical JB fashion, he likes to throw the extreme tag on just about everything, however, that could imply a sig severe season for us in the SE as the cold collides with established warmth. This is inline with my thinking that we are in for a action packed Spring in terms of severe weather given past history with strong nina's waning in late winter, even though this one is not weakening as much as expected. Thanks for pointing that out, nothing like at 192 hr DGEX SN map to brighten the mood on an otherwise uneventful day. Yeah, makes sense. Should be exciting in the severe wx dept., for sure! I usually never pay any attn. to JB for obvious reasons but, he actually done good with this big dog. The writing is getting put on the wall as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Gfs leaves a lot of energy out west behind the cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 06z DGEX develops the trailing s/w after the lakes cutter passes and gives the south a pretty significant ice/snow storm. http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html IMO, that's the best chance we have at getting anything from this setup. I believe the 0z gfs developed the same trailing s/w. It ended up being wide right but something to continue to look for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Gfs leaves a lot of energy out west behind the cutter. Looks like it's doing it's typical thing of holding it back way to long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Gfs leaves a lot of energy out west behind the cutter. Yeah if we can get the cutoff upper low in the southwest to eject quicker it would be interesting. Of course the 0z canadian has no cutoff and instead has a sharp but positively tilted trough across tx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yeah if we can get the cutoff upper low in the southwest to eject quicker it would be interesting. Of course the 0z canadian has no cutoff and instead has a sharp but positively tilted trough across tx. Of course it wants to leave it there till spring. It has been doing that a lot this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 NC and VA definitely need to watch out. It's not a done deal either way for those areas. DC mets last night all said that unlike the last storm, this will be a very prolonged event, perhaps lasting from Tuesday to Thursday, with waves of activity and different types of precip. For NC and VA, this could mean all sorts of fun and challenges for a prolonged period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I love the 1052 high over NE at 288! That's a good one, GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 No sign of blocking, no sign of a GOA low, no shortage of Arctic highs, and no warm-up through 384 hours. Cold finds a way to hang on....at least on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 No sign of blocking, no sign of a GOA low, no shortage of Arctic highs, and no warm-up through 384 hours. Cold finds a way to hang on....at least on the GFS. It has been consistent with the cold from run to run. Mine and my daughters softball season is gonna be horrible this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It has been consistent with the cold from run to run. Mine and my daughters softball season is gonna be horrible this year. No double wall bats under 60 degrees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 No double wall bats under 60 degrees! Nothing like catching a bad hop to the chest when its 20 and windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 No sign of blocking, no sign of a GOA low, no shortage of Arctic highs, and no warm-up through 384 hours. Cold finds a way to hang on....at least on the GFS. We may have something to watch around day 8 (yeah I know we always have something to watch 180 hrs out) if the front stalls over FL and just off the SE coast. Depending on what, if anything ejects out of the SW we could see development, but the s/w would have to come east, not north-east as this run shows. There may be svr weather in northern LA and the western half of MS on Tuesday, but other than that nothing of much consequence for the next week, except for some needed RN (fingers crossed) in the western Carolinas. This is actually a very good track for sig QPF in WNC if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Nothing like catching a bad hop to the chest when its 20 and windy. Or hitting it off the handle. That stings just a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z ggem now has that southwest upper low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Or hitting it off the handle. That stings just a little bit. A LOT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm sure everyone knows by now the 12z euro was a lakes cutter but it is also developing a southwest low. It is a little slower than the ggem to close it off. Looks like it closes off the around hr 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The 12Z runs say we need to take a week off from this stuff. Lakes cutters for everyone! I bow to Cheez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The 12Z runs say we need to take a week off from this stuff. Lakes cutters for everyone! I bow to Cheez. Thanks, I do not enjoy the Debbie Downer role though- I just try and keep my wishes out of the forecast. I have started talking about the SW closed low the models show after the cutter in the General Feb. Thread. Believe or not, that one MAY have potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The 12Z runs say we need to take a week off from this stuff. Lakes cutters for everyone! I bow to Cheez. I agree...I southwest upper low on the 12z euro just stalls around baja and finally starts to move around 186 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I read another Mets thoughts on up coming pattern and he says big changes on the way (early spring) for SE Mid late Feb. But cold comes back March and April for veggie killing !!! I want mention his Big Dog name on here, For danger of being flamed. He also said this past storm was an inland runner and said the next storm would be lakes cutter yesterday. He is 2 for 2 but not in our favor. Not good if he starts getting it right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Its really pumping that ridge back up over the west coast of Canada at 198. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Its really pumping that ridge back up over the west coast of Canada at 198. Yeah, overall nothing to really see on this run. A nice rain event at the end of the run but the euro does not agree on the cold the 12z gfs was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like a cloudy, cold week next week in the damming regions. Probably going to be in the 30's for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Thanks, I do not enjoy the Debbie Downer role though- I just try and keep my wishes out of the forecast. I have started talking about the SW closed low the models show after the cutter in the General Feb. Thread. Believe or not, that one MAY have potential. I agree with the potential on the south-west energy. That indeed does have some potential... Somehow...the Nogaps has this come out and produce some snow for portions of the south-east toward the end of its 12z run... ;x Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Thanks, I do not enjoy the Debbie Downer role though- I just try and keep my wishes out of the forecast. I have started talking about the SW closed low the models show after the cutter in the General Feb. Thread. Believe or not, that one MAY have potential. Well, just hold that one off through the 10th as I'll be in Phoenix the 7th - the 10th! Edit: Getting it in here before the 7th would be acceptable too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I agree...I southwest upper low on the 12z euro just stalls around baja and finally starts to move around 186 or so. Hello SE ridge at 240. It's really cool how the models can be right about a Lakes cutter at 144 out, but a SE snowstorm 144 out ends of 1000 miles off course somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It's really amazing how the models have had SUCH a hard time this year but understandable I guess. No one got the winter forecast right either so no reason to think the models will either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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