FoothillsNC Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 At 120, theres a 1036 high in NY and a 1036 in the Plains. The overrunning begins quickly, and aloft it phases the northwest system and southwest system partially, otherwise allows confluent flow in the Northeast and Lakes . It doesn't bring the first northern stream through here in tact first. With the PV so far north, it opens the door to an eastern Lakes runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 0z GFS off and running...at 96 hours a pronounced CAD signature developing with high pressure extending all the way back to the Northern Plains. Light patches of precip all across the southern tier at that time frame but no low development yet at 96...I like the looks of this. Something to watch and Ive seen it before in big cold outbreaks over the centrail plains is a banna HP. Where you get a transition piece or HP to extend break off the parent High and sneak a back door down the east side of the apps. This air is very cold and shallow. We would get it here quicker as opposed to climbing the apps per say. I'd be looking for hints of this over the weekend on models, assuming some lakes garbage doesnt get in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Lakes cutter on 0z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 At 120, theres a 1036 high in NY and a 1036 in the Plains. The overrunning begins quickly, and aloft it phases the northwest system and southwest system partially, otherwise allows confluent flow in the Northeast and Lakes . It doesn't bring the first northern stream through here in tact first. With the PV so far north, it opens the door to an eastern Lakes runner. With that look at 120, it would ramp up the temps east of the apps (the ridge). The 18z was close to a classic (if you want to call it that) ice storm (possibly more sleet west of I-77) look in the CAD regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Oh well...that sucks. Maybe another good rain event coming, that's always good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I know it is still 5 days out so its hard to say but if it is more of a miller b track with that low in tn does that mean a greater chance of ice in the cad areas? I def don't know it that well but it looks like a damming scenario on the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 18z gave me a snow storm. 00z rain storm Don't ya just love it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 That system Day 5 brings another pasting to Boston...meanwhile as the arctic air gets shoved southward...upper level energy hangs across the Gulf Coast Region spawning another area of Low Pressure in the Gulf...it cuts across Central Florida Day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yea boston will get hammered again...yea another low off Florida coast im atlantic....hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 We have all heard this before but its worth saying again...Day 7 is the one to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 With that look at 120, it would ramp up the temps east of the apps (the ridge). The 18z was close to a classic (if you want to call it that) ice storm (possibly more sleet west of I-77) look in the CAD regions. Oh well...that sucks. Maybe another good rain event coming, that's always good. theres some damming and this is GFS at a medium range. Not sure if its right at partially phasing the western systems but at any rate does offer up the possibility of round 2 late next week with so much troughiness holding back. If we get a good rain I won't complain though. It has a strange small closed low in Cal. coast at some point. A closed ridge in BC is usually indicative of some active weather here, so damming isn't out of the question at some point, though the first part might not deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 With no blocking it's like pulling hens teeth to get a winter storm in the SE. If we do get a winter storm it'll be a fluke with this pattern of no blocking.... Bring on spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 At hour 150, you can see the energy tailing off getting left behind. 24 hours latter its spawning up a GOM low. This will be something else to watch, along with front end ice potential in NC cad region with first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yea at least day 7 is south and ots that's what everyone has been asking for...so now we can see if it holds and trends NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 theres some damming and this is GFS at a medium range. Not sure if its right at partially phasing the western systems but at any rate does offer up the possibility of round 2 late next week with so much troughiness holding back. If we get a good rain I won't complain though. It has a strange small closed low in Cal. coast at some point. A closed ridge in BC is usually indicative of some active weather here, so damming isn't out of the question at some point, though the first part might not deliver. Good points Robert...maybe the partial phasing is a bit bullish on the GFS behalf...therefor when all is said and done we can keep the SLP more supressed along the Gulf Coast. IMO the setup with the high/CAD configuration looks good up to about 114, then it goes to the crapper. Early day for me tomorrow, good night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 With no blocking it's like pulling hens teeth to get a winter storm in the SE. If we do get a winter storm it'll be a fluke with this pattern of no blocking.... Bring on spring Early Spring lovers are still going to be disappointed this run. I see a lot of cold, cloudy, murky days in NC's future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Early Spring lovers are still going to be disappointed this run. I see a lot of cold, cloudy, murky days in NC's future. Yea, I figure it will be a late spring this year, Good blocking will probably return March and April. 00z never gets me to freezing with first wave. I think 2m temp 0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yea, I figure it will be a late spring this year, Good blocking will probably return March and April. 00z never gets me to freezing with first wave. I think 2m temp 0.2 We haven't had many sunny days this Winter. Today was pretty nice and the next couple should be, then downhill for a very long time I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yea, I figure it will be a late spring this year, Good blocking will probably return March and April. 00z never gets me to freezing with first wave. I think 2m temp 0.2 Yeah, without much doubt, that along with Nina weakening considerably should yield a cold, raw spring, i.m.o. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 And GFS is doing what I thought it would do, is to trend north. Farewell to winter precipitation chances for Feb 2-4 for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The models have trended like I expected. Hard to beat the Euro ensembles when they are consistent. Lake Cutter here we come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 And GFS is doing what I thought it would do, is to trend north. Farewell to winter precipitation chances for Feb 2-4 for NC Lol nice to meet you Debbie Downer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Lol nice to meet you Debbie Downer He is correct most likely- sometimes the truth hurts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 And GFS is doing what I thought it would do, is to trend north. Farewell to winter precipitation chances for Feb 2-4 for NC The models have trended like I expected. Hard to beat the Euro ensembles when they are consistent. Lake Cutter here we come. He is correct most likely- sometimes the truth hurts.... no guarantee of a Lakes cutter yet, exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 no guarantee of a Lakes cutter yet, exactly. Not a guarantee, but it is the most likely scenario IMO. An Apps runner at the best. The GFS ensemble has also trended north- the handwriting is really on the wall as far as I am concerned. There is some shot at NC getting a period of ice to start, and central and western TN is also somewhat in the game for snow. But GA and SC- I think that there is virtually no chance of frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 00Z Euro is way way west and north with the low.....goes from LIT to STL to IND...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I like the look of that second piece late week coming up the old front. And maybe the first one can re establish a block, or at least help usher in some re inforcement. On a side note, I saw some really interesting info. about Iceland's volcanic history and weather. If it gets good and active up there we could see some great weather in the years to come. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I know this is more "banter-ish", but looking at the long term, it still will not surprise me to have 3, maybe 4 opportunities before winter packs it in. Sure has been a hell of a lot better winter than last years season of NEAR, OH SO NEAR misses. It would be nice to see a blockbuster 12" or larger snow storm to close winter. That would be exclamation point! Beggars cannot be choosers though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I know this is more "banter-ish", but looking at the long term, it still will not surprise me to have 3, maybe 4 opportunities before winter packs it in. Sure has been a hell of a lot better winter than last years season of NEAR, OH SO NEAR misses. It would be nice to see a blockbuster 12" or larger snow storm to close winter. That would be exclamation point! Beggars cannot be choosers though! I second that! Although have not had any one big storm this year, have had more snow than normal here in Northern TN; will be interesting to see some forecasts for the upcoming Winter Season since so many of the forecasts for this season have failed miserably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well not set in stone... I think this storm will be for the western regional boards. Too much mounting evidence against this region or the Mid-Atlantic region. Next potential will be determined based on how much energy gets left behind.. and what happens with it as it ... eventually spits out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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