pondo1000 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 let's get it inside 72 hrs.... this will be the third major hit the euro has shown for us this season in the LR.... 0 for 2 so far. and even inside 72 it is no lock. Euro stuck to its guns with this current storm on a more western solution where it seems now it is actually going to wind up further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 let's get it inside 72 hrs.... this will be the third major hit the euro has shown for us this season in the LR.... 0 for 2 so far. LOLS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 and even inside 72 it is no lock. Euro stuck to its guns with this current storm on a more western solution where it seems now it is actually going to wind up further east. The cool thing with the Euro this year, it always shows the storm.. It does not just erase the storm one run and then it's back and so on..The variations in track are normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 and even inside 72 it is no lock. Euro stuck to its guns with this current storm on a more western solution where it seems now it is actually going to wind up further east. yep....the only postitive i see for the euro solution a week out vs our current solution is that the setup seems simpler. This one had/has 5 or 6 pieces of energy in the pipeline and it made for modelling mayhem. If euro is correct, it's basically a pressing arctic high and a storm developing in the s. plains. Timing wll determine track and hopefully models will lock in a bit earlier on something.... yea right lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The cool thing with the Euro this year, it always shows the storm.. It does not just erase the storm one run and then it's back and so on..The variations in track are normal. true, also southeast trend seems to be the rule. Remember at one point this current storm was modelled 7 or 8 days out by the euro to slam the OV points north and east. Looks like a DC to Boston special now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The cool thing with the Euro this year, it always shows the storm.. It does not just erase the storm one run and then it's back and so on..The variations in track are normal. that's true, good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 true, also southeast trend seems to be the rule. Remember at one point this current storm was modelled 7 or 8 days out by the euro to slam the OV points north and east. Looks like a DC to Boston special now. yeah, but if it is a little different pattern than the southeast trend may not apply? Of course, what do I know? I am truely just a weenie, but I can't help it. Do any of you guys ever ask yourself why you are so obsessed with snow anyway. I try to recall growing up as a kid and I do remeber loving it, but now to be an adult and still love it like I do to the point where I get in a bad mood when a model run does not go our way is ridiculous. I think I need professional help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 yeah, but if it is a little different pattern than the southeast trend may not apply? Of course, what do I know? I am truely just a weenie, but I can't help it. Do any of you guys ever ask yourself why you are so obsessed with snow anyway. I try to recall growing up as a kid and I do remeber loving it, but now to be an adult and still love it like I do to the point where I get in a bad mood when a model run does not go our way is ridiculous. I think I need professional help! Your not the only one who needs professional help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 yeah, but if it is a little different pattern than the southeast trend may not apply? Of course, what do I know? I am truely just a weenie, but I can't help it. Do any of you guys ever ask yourself why you are so obsessed with snow anyway. I try to recall growing up as a kid and I do remeber loving it, but now to be an adult and still love it like I do to the point where I get in a bad mood when a model run does not go our way is ridiculous. I think I need professional help! I remember following weather when I was 6...it was in 1982 following LES in Buffalo For years Ive gotten made fun of all the time by my buddies!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I remember following weather when I was 6...it was in 1982 following LES in Buffalo For years Ive gotten made fun of all the time by my buddies!!! Dude, I hear ya! Add my wife to that list too. She doesn't get it. Funny thing, when she was a teacher years ago, people at her school would ask her what my thoughts were on any potential upcoming storm. I had them fooled that I really knew what I was talking about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Dude, I hear ya! Add my wife to that list too. She doesn't get it. Funny thing, when she was a teacher years ago, people at her school would ask her what my thoughts were on any potential upcoming storm. I had them fooled that I really knew what I was talking about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 yeah, but if it is a little different pattern than the southeast trend may not apply? Of course, what do I know? I am truely just a weenie, but I can't help it. Do any of you guys ever ask yourself why you are so obsessed with snow anyway. I try to recall growing up as a kid and I do remeber loving it, but now to be an adult and still love it like I do to the point where I get in a bad mood when a model run does not go our way is ridiculous. I think I need professional help! it's agreat question....we should have a standing thread here where everyone can put in their theories...seriously. For me, it really was the winter of '78 and the blizzard that got my attention. We had something like 10 snowdays that winter and I think that's when I started associating snow with really good things, (specifically no school). There's two areas concerning this obsession. The tracking of the event vs. actually enjoying snowfall and snowcover. Tracking: It's kind of like a game of chance. That feeling when you see 'something' in the LR. You start watching it over the next few days, every model run is like pulling the lever on a slot machine and seeing what pops up. The ups and downs of the solutions. One cycle you're in the sweetspot, the next one you're missed...it's a rush. As the LR becomes the SR and the threat is still real, the ante is upped and the rush is that much more intense. When a 6 or 7 day threat that you've been following closely finally becomes a winterstorm watch....there's just something cool about that. Enjoying snowcover and snowfall: To me this is the dichotomy of the whole issue. I really don't enjoy snow sports. Snow is usually a pain in the arse, and it slows down my real work. There's no logical explanation as to why I should like snow. That being said here's my thoughts on the positives of snow. Winter sucks it's gray and miserably cold, snow is the only thing that gives winter it's beauty and excitement. Snow transforms the landscape. Snow is a great equalizer, no matter who you are you are effected by it. You have to deal with it, drive in it, get it out of the way. One of the few times we see all our neighbors in the winter time is those hours following a snowstorm when everyone is out shoveling and snowblowing. that's my procrastination post of the day...lol. But i think the whole question of what the hell we are all doing spending so much time here talking about snowstorms is a great question. It is an obsession no doubt. ONe that i would probably be embarassed to admit to friends....at least to the degree i post here...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 it's agreat question....we should have a standing thread here where everyone can put in their theories...seriously. For me, it really was the winter of '78 and the blizzard that got my attention. We had something like 10 snowdays that winter and I think that's when I started associating snow with really good things, (specifically no school). There's two areas concerning this obsession. The tracking of the event vs. actually enjoying snowfall and snowcover. Tracking: It's kind of like a game of chance. That feeling when you see 'something' in the LR. You start watching it over the next few days, every model run is like pulling the lever on a slot machine and seeing what pops up. The ups and downs of the solutions. One cycle you're in the sweetspot, the next one you're missed...it's a rush. As the LR becomes the SR and the threat is still real, the ante is upped and the rush is that much more intense. When a 6 or 7 day threat that you've been following closely finally becomes a winterstorm watch....there's just something cool about that. Enjoying snowcover and snowfall: To me this is the dichotomy of the whole issue. I really don't enjoy snow sports. Snow is usually a pain in the arse, and it slows down my real work. There's no logical explanation as to why I should like snow. That being said here's my thoughts on the positives of snow. Winter sucks it's gray and miserably cold, snow is the only thing that gives winter it's beauty and excitement. Snow transforms the landscape. Snow is a great equalizer, no matter who you are you are effected by it. You have to deal with it, drive in it, get it out of the way. One of the few times we see all our neighbors in the winter time is those hours following a snowstorm when everyone is out shoveling and snowblowing. that's my procrastination post of the day...lol. But i think the whole question of what the hell we are all doing spending so much time here talking about snowstorms is a great question. It is an obsession no doubt. ONe that i would probably be embarassed to admit to friends....at least to the degree i post here...lol. Ok, let's do it. I'll start the thread after typing this. I love your explanation and now thinking about myself, I am a little obsessive compulsive. And, I do enjoy gambling to a degree so the model thing makes a ton of sense! In regards to snow itself, it is beautiful and to me peaceful. When I see a picture of a snowy landscape It gives me a warm feeling. Don't know why, it just does. Also, isn't it funny when there is a great big snowstorm how neighbors kind of come together to help each other? One of my favorite memories was in 1996 living in the philadelphia area. I was 23 and I would always tune into KYW News radio in the winter to get the 5 day from Elliot Abrams. Well, on January 2nd, his exact words for 5-6 days from then were, "A snowstorm is likely Sunday into Monday." It gave me chills! I mean snowstorm likely? They never say that, especially that far in advance. I kept tuning in and the forecast never changed. Well, the rest is history and my now wife and I drove home from the Poconos in the storm and we made it to Philly just in time. It was a little scary, but unbelievable. I mean the PA Turnpike was one lane the whole way. Luckily I had an SUV. The cat is out of the bag with my friends, but I am ok with that. They get a kick out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 cant say ive looked closely at all, but if it comes out in pieces, this should trend S and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 cant say ive looked closely at all, but if it comes out in pieces, this should trend S and E. that and another cold dump looks to come down right over the western lakes. This is smelling more and more like another I95 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 that and another cold dump looks to come down right over the western lakes. This is smelling more and more like another I95 special. I was saying this last night...looks like the same song and dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 that and another cold dump looks to come down right over the western lakes. This is smelling more and more like another I95 special. I was saying this last night...looks like the same song and dance. Geez, it's a 6+ day threat right now. Can we save the debbie downer bs for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Geez, it's a 6+ day threat right now. Can we save the debbie downer bs for later. Yes I will save it for later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yes I will save it for later Good stuff. If (when) it becomes apparent that it won't happen, then let it all out. But truthfully at this point, it's all speculation as to what this may or may not do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Geez, it's a 6+ day threat right now. Can we save the debbie downer bs for later. Day 6 is still within your optimistic range. I wasn’t really commenting on a specific threat but the field of play beyond day 5 which looks pretty lame. Obv subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Geez, it's a 6+ day threat right now. Can we save the debbie downer bs for later. Yes, plus the GFS has been the only model squashing this that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Good stuff. If (when) it becomes apparent that it won't happen, then let it all out. But truthfully at this point, it's all speculation as to what this may or may not do. Will see what the Doctor says...thats the one that really counts this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Geez, it's a 6+ day threat right now. Can we save the debbie downer bs for later. The main thing I'm focusing on is that there's still a storm being shown in this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Will see what the Doctor says...thats the one that really counts this far out Dr No has been advertising a system for us for the past 3 or so runs. Granted it's still la la land even for it, but one reason IMO not bail on the threat. But as Alek alluded to, I'm usually optimistic at this range. Take it FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yes, plus the GFS has been the only model squashing this that much. GGEM is in and doesn't support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM is in and doesn't support it. Although I'd like that 1049mb High to be centered a bit further north. Actually looking at the colored maps. I think its fine where it is, and the gulf is open for business. The e-wall images will be win when they come out I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Although I'd like that 1049mb High to be centered a bit further north. To clarify, it's not in yet past 144 hours, but it looks significantly different than the GFS at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 To clarify, it's not in yet past 144 hours, but it looks significantly different than the GFS at that point. Yeah I edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 To clarify, it's not in yet past 144 hours, but it looks significantly different than the GFS at that point. As it has for the past two days...along with the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z GGEM has a 1004 mb low over Evansville at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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