baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Aggression is much more interesting though. But I understand. Another decent storm threat being squashed (the mother of clippers thread from Canuck) has put me into full pessimism mode. Unless the weather gods try to revive the mother of clippers (they won't), I will watch as the Pacific sends the train of atmospheric waves into the CONUS to die and wither away. Cmichweather has seen another blizzard threat go down the tubes up in Nodak. He may go into full-blown drinking mode if this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Another decent storm threat being squashed (the mother of clippers thread from Canuck) has put me into full pessimism mode. Unless the weather gods try to revive the mother of clippers (they won't), I will watch as the Pacific sends the train of atmospheric waves into the CONUS to die and wither away. Cmichweather has seen another blizzard threat go down the tubes up the Nodak. He may be into full-blown drinking mode if this continues. Yeah, the thing is you guys have cashed in earlier this year so its not all bad up there. I mean isn't your snow depth something ridiculous? Personally I think there is a pattern change in the works which will probably help out areas that have missed out thus far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Another decent storm threat being squashed (the mother of clippers thread from Canuck) has put me into full pessimism mode. Unless the weather gods try to revive the mother of clippers (they won't), I will watch as the Pacific sends the train of atmospheric waves into the CONUS to die and wither away. Cmichweather has seen another blizzard threat go down the tubes up the Nodak. He may be into full-blown drinking mode if this continues. The northern stream NW flow action has been weak at best lately. I think a lot of us are just looking to this period for a revival of some eastern ridging, so maybe a lame clipper that doesn’t smash down a bunch of cold air all the way to Mexico will help things out in the long run, if and when we can get a decent piece of energy into the south central plains. As for Cmichweather, at least his season has a long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The northern stream NW flow action has been weak at best lately. I think a lot of us are just looking to this period for a revival of some eastern ridging, so maybe a lame clipper that doesn’t smash down a bunch of cold air all the way to Mexico will help things out in the long run, if and when we can get a decent piece of energy into the south central plains. As for Cmichweather, at least his season has a long ways to go. The bolded part is key, I think as a rule of thumb clippers don't draw down the cold like that, and with this one translating E vs SE we probably won't have the cold air dump as far south as previous clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah, the thing is you guys have cashed in earlier this year so its not all bad up there. I mean isn't your snow depth something ridiculous? Personally I think there is a pattern change in the works which will probably help out areas that have missed out thus far this winter. Yeah I am not complaining. I was looking forward to a potential wind threat with this since I like wind more than snow--oh well. But yeah--snowpack itself is great. I think the minor disappointment comes in this being threat number 4 in a row that petered out and came in multiple chunks instead of one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The northern stream NW flow action has been weak at best lately. I think a lot of us are just looking to this period for a revival of some eastern ridging, so maybe a lame clipper that doesn’t smash down a bunch of cold air all the way to Mexico will help things out in the long run, if and when we can get a decent piece of energy into the south central plains. As for Cmichweather, at least his season has a long ways to go. Yeah I will take whatever comes. I was hoping for a good clipper since this is typical clipper season. A nice wrapped storm would be nice as well--but I am also realistic in that this isn't necessarily the time for that yet. Late winter and early spring will undoubtedly have some good threats though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah I will take whatever comes. I was hoping for a good clipper since this is typical clipper season. A nice wrapped storm would be nice as well--but I am also realistic in that this isn't necessarily the time for that yet. Late winter and early spring will undoubtedly have some good threats though. We really only have a month maybe a month a half window down this way before major events become difficult and rain dominated. I’m ready to blow this pattern up in the worst way before it’s too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 We really only have a month maybe a month a half window down this way before major events become difficult and rain dominated. I’m ready to blow this pattern up in the worst way before it’s too late. The region is due for a nice Colorado Low. Haven't really seen one yet this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The bolded part is key, I think as a rule of thumb clippers don't draw down the cold like that, and with this one translating E vs SE we probably won't have the cold air dump as far south as previous clippers. All depends on what happens in the west and to some degree the north Atlantic. Gotta have something as well to keep the storms from taking a deadly track right over our heads too. What we really really dont want is either the clipper heading for Toronto and then Boston and exploding off the eastcoast and thus forming another block. Nor do we want a clipper so weak that it leaves the door open for the next system to slide over our heads and or just to the west. Thus why i liked the 12z euro yesterday and what it did with the clipper. It lifts it up to the ne/nne from centeral MI into Canada and does not head for the Atlantic and keeps the gate closed over our heads and to the west with the next system especially if it bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 All depends on what happens in the west and to some degree the north Atlantic. Gotta have something as well to keep the storms from taking a deadly track right over our heads too. What we really really dont want is either the clipper heading for Toronto and then Boston and exploding off the eastcoast and thus forming another block. Nor do we want a clipper so weak that it leaves the door open for the next system to slide over our heads and or just to the west. Thus why i liked the 12z euro yesterday and what it did with the clipper. It lifts it up to the ne/nne from centeral MI into Canada and does not head for the Atlantic and keeps the gate closed over our heads and to the west with the next system especially if it bombs. I’ll take a hard cutter west of me if it means an end to the lameness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I’ll take a hard cutter west of me if it means an end to the lameness. Let's not get too crazy. A cutter through OH will do just fine. Sorry OH folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Let's not get too crazy. A cutter through OH will do just fine. Sorry OH folks. I was half serious, as someone who could care less about snowpack, I'd take a 996 over Chicago and rain over -6 with snow in Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I’ll take a hard cutter west of me if it means an end to the lameness. I personally would rather not waste any potential. Have seen enough hard cutters the past couple of winters and so i'll pass on that. basically like i95 getting another dump. No thanks. Unless it does it Jan 67 style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I was half serious, as someone who could care less about snowpack, I'd take a 996 over Chicago and rain over -6 with snow in Mexico. So was I. Regardless, I think -6 and snow in Mexico would be quite fascinating. Anyway, still liking the prospects for something. Hopefully it doesn't fizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Let's not get too crazy. A cutter through OH will do just fine. Sorry OH folks. As long as it cuts through CMH, us far Western OH folks still do ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 As long as it cuts through CMH, us far Western OH folks still do ok Talking Jan 78 type storm now. That works too. I wonder what Chicago got from that? Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Talking Jan 78 type storm now. That works too. I wonder what Chicago got from that? Anyone? Jan 25-27....12.4 inches. Also, Feb 6-7 of that same year dumped 10.3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Talking Jan 78 type storm now. That works too. I wonder what Chicago got from that? Anyone? Oh no not Jan 78 talk again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Unless it does it Jan 67 style. Or better yet, Jan 99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I figured it wouldn't take long for someone from MI to chime in. Obviously a great storm for you guys. Would be sweet for you all if something similar could happen again with this clipper. Let's not get too crazy. A cutter through OH will do just fine. Sorry OH folks. As long as it's CMH to CLE I'm fine with that. Well... at least the GGEM/ECMWF are encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 With the GFS finally getting a clue as of the 18z run, I'm officially hyped for this storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Jan 25-27....12.4 inches. Also, Feb 6-7 of that same year dumped 10.3 inches Not bad at all. Oh no not Jan 78 talk again... Gotta go big. I am ready for a real storm. Or better yet, Jan 99. Don't recall the pattern before that. I just know Jan 67 had a hard cutter like Ale mentioned ( nice severe wx event too in the region ) which was followed up a day or so later by the Jan 67 blizzard along the same front i do believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Don't recall the pattern before that. I just know Jan 67 had a hard cutter like Ale mentioned ( nice severe wx event too in the region ) which was followed up a day or so later by the Jan 67 blizzard along the same front i do believe. Not exactly telling us the pattern, but here's the synoptic setup for it. http://www.meteo.psu...1999/us0101.php Apparently we may have similar teleconnections this time around as we did in January 1999 (+NAO/+AO/+PNA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not exactly telling us the pattern, but here's the synoptic setup for it. http://www.meteo.psu...1999/us0101.php Looks like it had a little clipper pass across here just a day or two ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Here we go again with Arctic Plunge try number 3! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like it had a little clipper pass across here just a day or two ahead of it. Yes it did 4" here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Here we go again with Arctic Plunge try number 3! More like try number 8 with 1 verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Being completely pessimistic here--I am not even bothering with threats beyond 120 hours in this un-impeded flow pattern full of atmospheric wave disturbances of various amplitudes flying in every direction all over the CONUS and Canada. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just took a look at GFS 18Z...Looks a lot like the X-MAS or Jan 20-21 storm Pattern. More blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just took a look at GFS 18Z...Looks a lot like the X-MAS or Jan 20-21 storm Pattern. More blocking? I wouldn't pay attention to the run verbatim. Actually, it's too early to do that for any of these models. But it's fair to say the GFS has made some substantial trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.