JoMo Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Agree and it's the first time we've seen anything like it this season. I'm normally off but didn't our last Nina have a lot of icing events, especially in the MO area? 2007-2008 was year of the ice storm: Dec 8th-10th: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=icestormsummarydec07 Feb 11th-12th (no link) Feb 21st: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=feb212008icestorm Main difference is lots of precip that La Nina and very little precip this La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Some serious cold in Canada. Looks like some of it will be making a visit if the 12z Euro is right. Yeah it does at the end with 2m temps making a run for -10 and colder along i70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Bean town with near 3" of precip.. Sad when I want to lock in a 6th of what the euro gives them. What a run they're having after the slow start.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's still somewhat a fantasy range event but with the super clipper looking less super and the subsequent artic invasion delayed, i think we might have a shot at seeing some legit ridging to the east allowing things to trend in a positive direction as far as storm potential is concerned. It would be great if we can get an open gulf and lose some of the lakes blocking for once. About time, i'm sick of wishy washy cold conditions into the deep south, hopefully this gets even more extreme in the days to come. I've pretty much tried to swear off watching long range threats, but I think the set up is about as good as we've seen in quite awhile. For something large scale. Of course it's just potential right now, but it certainly intrigues me a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's still somewhat a fantasy range event but with the super clipper looking less super and the subsequent artic invasion delayed, i think we might have a shot at seeing some legit ridging to the east allowing things to trend in a positive direction as far as storm potential is concerned. It would be great if we can get an open gulf and lose some of the lakes blocking for once. About time, i'm sick of wishy washy cold conditions into the deep south, hopefully this gets even more extreme in the days to come. +10 Especially with the wishy washy cold in the south. Time for a little SE Ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's still somewhat a fantasy range event but with the super clipper looking less super and the subsequent artic invasion delayed, i think we might have a shot at seeing some legit ridging to the east allowing things to trend in a positive direction as far as storm potential is concerned. It would be great if we can get an open gulf and lose some of the lakes blocking for once. About time, i'm sick of wishy washy cold conditions into the deep south, hopefully this gets even more extreme in the days to come. There's really not any blocking showing up...not like what we've seen this winter anyway. There is some flat southeast ridging and even that has been hard to come by this winter. There's a lot of cold air north of the border which would hopefully prevent this from trying to cut too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Bean town with near 3" of precip.. Sad when I want to lock in a 6th of what the euro gives them. What a run they're having after the slow start.. Dont think all of it is snow but a lot of it is. If I have to pick one area Im jealous of it is CT and most of MA, they have got some serious snow depths. And winter was totally nonexistent there until after Christmas. Snowcover, as you know, is huge on my list, so Im very pleased with my winter so far (unlike some of my fellow SE Michiganders), but the perfect winter this year would have been December in MN and January in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There's really not any blocking showing up...not like what we've seen this winter anyway. There is some flat southeast ridging and even that has been hard to come by this winter. There's a lot of cold air north of the border which would hopefully prevent this from trying to cut too far north. Not a concern of mine, yet. But frankly i'd welcome it over a boring GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There's really not any blocking showing up...not like what we've seen this winter anyway. There is some flat southeast ridging and even that has been hard to come by this winter. There's a lot of cold air north of the border which would hopefully prevent this from trying to cut too far north. Heh, I was thinking about that too when watching the Euro roll out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 A lot of you seem to be paying for the Euro these days, but FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Dont think all of it is snow but a lot of it is. If I have to pick one area Im jealous of it is CT and most of MA, they have got some serious snow depths. And winter was totally nonexistent there until after Christmas. Snowcover, as you know, is huge on my list, so Im very pleased with my winter so far (unlike some of my fellow SE Michiganders), but the perfect winter this year would have been December in MN and January in CT. Yeah I'm loving this January with lights snows almost every day it seems and a nice snow cover of the whitest and freshest looking 7"+ Our yr will come where we finally can build a snow pack of 2'+ and it actually last.. I'll be tickled if we can nickel and dime our way to a foot s-pack.. My winter grade is on the rise.. Almost up to a c+ and if the Euro would happen to work out and I get near .50" of precip as snow it will be well in to the b's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is a favorable look for model busting shallow cold air and active wintry wx for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If this energy could all come out at once...oh man. But if you're farther south/east, the piecemeal scenario might be better. I'm all in for all at once, btw GGEM EURO :thumbsup: GFS :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Heh, I was thinking about that too when watching the Euro roll out. I think we'd probably be ok as long as the trough stays positively tilted. But too soon to get into details. My new favorite GFS ensemble is p009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nice little hit for sure but man oh man you see what is behind that? That is some freakish brutal cold. 850s of -40 just north of Superior.. :shiver: Not a bad run so far. Very decent -EPO ridging that extends to the artic circle. Thus why as well it looks like the whole Artic is about to pay a visit to us. Not sure it does though but man it is close. i know, put me in the worried camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 +10 Especially with the wishy washy cold in the south. Time for a little SE Ridging. whats the deal with that? we lose the AO and NAO but nothing happened? is there an explanation. im guesing it was the perfectly timed PNA arrival? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think we'd probably be ok as long as the trough stays positively tilted. But too soon to get into details. My new favorite GFS ensemble is p009 P004 isn't terrible either, but 9 would be golden for a lot of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 P004 isn't terrible either, but 9 would be golden for a lot of areas. Yeah. I'm sure we'd mix here but there would be a lot of snow too. Anyway, still just fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The ensembles as a whole aren't great but a few more are starting to show some potential, if we can get a decent baroclinic zone in the the south/central plains like the Euro is showing, there is some boom goes the dynamite potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 JMA looked nice!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 whats the deal with that? we lose the AO and NAO but nothing happened? is there an explanation. im guesing it was the perfectly timed PNA arrival? Pretty much. -EPO ridging is fine and great but bring that ridge onshore into the west ( ala +PNA ) and it basically becomes almost like having that -NAO blocking we had. Would have helped though if the NAO could have been more on the + side with the +PNA. Preferably though the ridge works best if in the Pacific and the systems are diving south along the westcoast into the sw/TX with a neutral/slightly positive NAO and or no Greenland blocking with a nice H sitting right off the se coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Pretty much. -EPO ridging is fine and great but bring that ridge onshore into the west ( ala +PNA ) and it basically becomes almost like having that -NAO blocking we had. Would have helped though if the NAO could have been more on the + side with the +PNA. Preferably though the ridge works best if in the Pacific and the systems are diving south along the westcoast into the sw/TX with a neutral/slightly positive NAO and or no Greenland blocking with a nice H sitting right off the se coast. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The ensembles as a whole aren't great but a few more are starting to show some potential, if we can get a decent baroclinic zone in the the south/central plains like the Euro is showing, there is some boom goes the dynamite potential. Its ensembles of the GFS which has a cold bias, so its not surprising that a lot of them look squashed. At this juncture I'd be riding other models, however the clipper this weekend truly will have the final say on how this event plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Good to see some of the GFS ensembles showing something more impressive in this time range. The op looks just horrible. Like many others have mentioned, P009 is nice! Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its ensembles of the GFS which has a cold bias, so its not surprising that a lot of them look squashed. At this juncture I'd be riding other models, however the clipper this weekend truly will have the final say on how this event plays out. Agree, right now the GFS seems to be playing to that bias, hence my somewhat optimistic mood. As for the clipper, the 12z GFS was noticeably weaker than 0z and was less agressive with the artic air behind it, we'll have to see if it's a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 There's really nothing that looks like the GFS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There's really nothing that looks like the GFS right now. Yeah, even the LOLGAPS and the Ukie at 144 give it 0 support. It truly is on an island of its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Being completely pessimistic here--I am not even bothering with threats beyond 120 hours in this un-impeded flow pattern full of atmospheric wave disturbances of various amplitudes flying in every direction all over the CONUS and Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Being completely pessimistic here--I am not even bothering with threats beyond 120 hours in this un-impeded flow pattern full of atmospheric wave disturbances of various amplitudes flying in every direction all over the CONUS and Canada. Hopefully we see you in a 2-3 days then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Being completely pessimistic here--I am not even bothering with threats beyond 120 hours in this un-impeded flow pattern full of atmospheric wave disturbances of various amplitudes flying in every direction all over the CONUS and Canada. Aggression is much more interesting though. But I understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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