Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 4 inches a hour in their heads. I never believe their snow totals. then go look at the radar and the system in general... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Every time we Somehow try to get a system going, something goes wrong.. I just dont understand this b.s.. Getting old really, ill just enjoy my clipper, hopefully they surprise me lol GN everyone. The exact reason for my pessimism here. Phasing events need to be considered with a lot of caution--even more so this year. As Buckeye said--this has to be threat 10 with a potential phase and arctic outbreak--and we have only 1 verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 What event was that? Maybe this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Yeah, and it shows how delicate this is. Not to foul up the thread but it gave me flashbacks to what we were tracking 2 years ago almost on this very date. Nooooooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Maybe this one? I believe he's talking about the potential superstorm that was supposed to occur around 2/4/2009 and then disappeared on the models about 5 days out. I believe it ended up giving Philly like 6" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I believe he's talking about the potential superstorm that was supposed to occur around 2/4/2009 and then disappeared on the models about 5 days out. I believe it ended up giving Philly like 6" of snow. I'm pretty sure I think he is talking about the elusive triple phaser that never was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I believe he's talking about the potential superstorm that was supposed to occur around 2/4/2009 and then disappeared on the models about 5 days out. I believe it ended up giving Philly like 6" of snow. Ohhhhhh, I see. That one was close to the same date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Do we still got the NAM? I can't even make myself look at that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I'm pretty sure I think he is talking about the elusive triple phaser that never was. Yes, that's the one. Edit: Or wait am I thinking about a different one? Ugh, idk...sorry haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Bow, the NAM at the surface and the H5 looked nearly identical to the 12z euro at 96. Nearly exactly the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Suppose the next thing I'm curious about is how many of the 00z Euro ensemble members will support the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 You should not be upset. Considering previous ensemble runs were more or less rain/freezing rain even for you. The op was but not the ensembles, at least not the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 "Fast" phases like that rarely ever workout. They generally trend northwest as the model gets better organized. Which means you know what. Sounds like another Ohio Plumper circle jerk thread with all man kind models. Def potential left for those down south but up here I think the weenie cheese is on the wall. GN, all - And TY to all the Packers that 14 yrs ago made this a night I'll never forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Skilling had a impressive blog tonight regarding early next week chances with EUROPEAN model coming in with .60-.90 liquid. 00z UKMET has a classic 987mb low at Little Rock, AR day 6 http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 FWIW, it looks to me like a few to several of the 00z GFS ensemble members resemble the 00z NAM/12z ECMWF with phasing on the west coast at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Dont wanna get hounded with the snow weenie again but we might end up with a Classic TX style Chicago blockbuster winter storm as the 00z GFS is looking like its trying to get a low pressure to spin up from eastern TX and up the lakes/ov but only gets surpressed. Reminds me like the TX pahandle areas like Armarillo gets hammered with 12+ and leaves a stripe all the way up to northern MI like 99 blizzard for example. 00z NAM has a nice 500mb energy waiting to rotate along the base swing its ass up the OV and UKMET is a bomb and perfect example. Skilling very impressive tonight and not crap. Here we go again with Baro, alek and thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Whatever happens with this storm--I think this is a good example to remain cautious in patterns such as this as the Pacific driven flow with an intense East Asian Jet has a tendency to change real fast. We will be in wait and see mode maybe longer than I initially thought--perhaps another 24-48 hours until that cyclone gets going and pushes eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 GFS was actually closer to a phase tonight. Just missed. Meh... GFS is a pretty much useless model this far out.. seeing the Euro come in basically worse than it is a serious red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Meh... GFS is a pretty much useless model this far out.. seeing the Euro come in basically worse than it is a serious red flag. The Euro had at least 3 or 4 consecutive runs in a row where it was phasing early though. Even the good doc is entitled to a questionable run. I'd be much more concerned if it shows this on the next couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Yeah, I think it is called a "Panhandle B" track. With A being farther NW. It looks like thats whats trying to set up. I think will have 2 solutions in the next 2-3 days as Skilling mentioned. A bomb that tracks from TX to Lakes/OV or a surpression system with just a dry and barbaric artic H pressure system. I think the bomb has a good chance ecp with nice 500mb energy out in sw ready to charge at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Heck, even on the big storm here in Dec, the euro caved on one run where it went inline with the GFS, next run, it corrected itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 00z GFS ensembles at 132 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I say we pull a Mid-Atlantic and call this the "Hoosier" Storm like they named theirs the "PSUHoffman" Storm. It ended up being quite successful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I say we pull a Mid-Atlantic and call this the "Hoosier" Storm like they named theirs the "PSUHoffman" Storm. It ended up being quite successful. I am gonna pm you because I can post til tommorow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 They're out on PSU now 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/11324-end-of-januaryearly-february-storm-potential-part-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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