Stebo Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah, although it's hard to completely disregard seasonal trends, this pattern is a bit different than what we've seen mostly and this is the type of regime where the GFS does this. Time will tell. Yeah, I'll ride other models on this for now, GFS just too weird with its handling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Will be interesting to see how much warm air will be associated with this Gulf system. Would not be surprised to see some in the US to get an ice storm out of this system. This storm will be coming around the 2009 ice storm anniversary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The way the Euro keeps the clipper from diving south too much and scoots it out, we have a developing low over the west Plains with the incoming energy over the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 00z GFS 00z GGEM 00z ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 00z ECMWF Oh, there you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Oh, there you are. I'd love to not have a 1040mb+ high in the plains squashing this like the Euro after 168hr. Might be a good hit for Ohio Valley but up this way would be yet another miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 0z ECM was a step in the right direction for those in the eastern OH valley who are still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'd love to not have a 1040mb+ high in the plains squashing this like the Euro after 168hr. Might be a good hit for Ohio Valley but up this way would be yet another miss. Yeah, the northern wave of precip weakens eastward, surprise surprise, while to the south it looks like an overrunning event in OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah, the northern wave of precip weakens eastward, surprise surprise, while to the south it looks like an overrunning event in OH. Lets will us a blizzard for our birthday, start willing now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 After doing some looking around, I think there is more potential with this period than i had originally thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 0z ECM was a step in the right direction for those in the eastern OH valley who are still in the game. dude its a hundred gazillion model runs out.... but yeah, i know what you are trying to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 dude its a hundred gazillion model runs out.... but yeah, i know what you are trying to say I thought a 1,000 mile shift was a pretty generous spread at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z GFS really mucks this one up. SW cutoff, lingers...lingers, moves steadily SE and then it gets crushed way south by the PV. Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z GFS really mucks this one up. SW cutoff, lingers...lingers, moves steadily SE and then it gets crushed way south by the PV. Shocker. Yeah, but it deifnitely looked better than the previous runs. The EURO/GGEM is closer to what I expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah, but it deifnitely looked better than the previous runs. The EURO/GGEM is closer to what I expect. Yeah the 12z GGEM looks fairly close to the 0z Euro. GFS not even in the same ballpark right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Long way out but 12z GGEM at 180 fwiw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The EURO has some stuff at the end of the month too. Should be interesting again but I won't get pumped till were inside 2-3 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Long way out but 12z GGEM at 180 fwiw: that would be a nice hit, and with the second and stronger piece of energy behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 that would be a nice hit, and with the second and stronger piece of energy behind it. That setup is very suggestive of ice too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z Euro looks fairly similar to the 0z run FWIW. Maybe a slight bit more ridging out in front. Decent hit of snow for the QC to southern WI to N IL to N IN to S MI through 174. Awaiting more frames... EDIT: Thumping OH at 180, but the 32º line bisects the state in half basically (SW to NE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z Euro looks fairly similar to the 0z run FWIW. Maybe a slight bit more ridging out in front. Decent hit of snow for the QC to southern WI to N IL to N IN to S MI through 174. Awaiting more frames... Not bad as was the 12z CMC (which still has a more robust clipper). I haven't had the Euro show a decent anything for this region even in the long range for some time. That setup is very suggestive of ice too. Agree and it's the first time we've seen anything like it this season. I'm normally off but didn't our last Nina have a lot of icing events, especially in the MO area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Turns into a glorified front post 180, where as the 0z run had some development for the OV on the tail end. Regardless probably a 2-4", maybe a bit more in places, type of deal for the areas outlined before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 If this energy could all come out at once...oh man. But if you're farther south/east, the piecemeal scenario might be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 All speculation. Hopefully were looking at a decent storm to get Feb off with a bang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not bad as was the 12z CMC (which still has a more robust clipper). I haven't had the Euro show a decent anything for this region even in the long range for some time. Agree and it's the first time we've seen anything like it this season. I'm normally off but didn't our last Nina have a lot of icing events, especially in the MO area? Ninas seem to have higher ice potential. I know Missouri has had some big icing events in recent years but I'm not sure about dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z Euro looks fairly similar to the 0z run FWIW. Maybe a slight bit more ridging out in front. Decent hit of snow for the QC to southern WI to N IL to N IN to S MI through 174. Awaiting more frames... EDIT: Thumping OH at 180, but the 32º line bisects the state in half basically (SW to NE). Nice little hit for sure but man oh man you see what is behind that? That is some freakish brutal cold. 850s of -40 just north of Superior.. :shiver: Not a bad run so far. Very decent -EPO ridging that extends to the artic circle. Thus why as well it looks like the whole Artic is about to pay a visit to us. Not sure it does though but man it is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Almost .50" here with both little systems.. Wish I could lock it in.. 2nd one in fantasy land looks interesting and prob close to advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If this energy could all come out at once...oh man. But if you're farther south/east, the piecemeal scenario might be better. I agree. Still, even in this scenario, I can see more QPF than what the 12z Euro is showing. Real nice thermal spread across the country from -5º or colder in the Plains/Dakotas to 60º+ in the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nice little hit for sure but man oh man you see what is behind that? That is some freakish brutal cold. 850s of -40 just north of Superior.. :shiver: Not a bad run so far. Very decent -EPO ridging that extends to the artic circle. Thus why as well it looks like the whole Artic is about to pay a visit to us. Not sure it does though but man it is close. Some serious cold in Canada. Looks like some of it will be making a visit if the 12z Euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If this energy could all come out at once...oh man. But if you're farther south/east, the piecemeal scenario might be better. It's still somewhat a fantasy range event but with the super clipper looking less super and the subsequent artic invasion delayed, i think we might have a shot at seeing some legit ridging to the east allowing things to trend in a positive direction as far as storm potential is concerned. It would be great if we can get an open gulf and lose some of the lakes blocking for once. I agree. Still, even in this scenario, I can see more QPF than what the 12z Euro is showing. Real nice thermal spread across the country from -5º or colder in the Plains/Dakotas to 60º+ in the South. About time, i'm sick of wishy washy cold conditions into the deep south, hopefully this gets even more extreme in the days to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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