Hoosier Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 just saw the 18z, it has a storm at least! GFS could make me look a fool...you never know. But this is by far the most excited I've been about big storm potential this winter locally and for the region. That being said, caution is the key word for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 GFS could make me look a fool...you never know. But this is by far the most excited I've been about big storm potential this winter locally and for the region. That being said, caution is the key word for now. Yes. I think some meteorologists become transfixed with the model output and ensemble output verbatim and lose site of what is truly happening out in the raging Pacific. A real threat--but a lot of weather needs to happen. Euro busted hard with the clipper and phase with the polar vortex (and it had tremendous ensemble agreement)--and it is definitely the most bullish here with the phase threat. The threat is real though for some type of storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 GFS could make me look a fool...you never know. But this is by far the most excited I've been about big storm potential this winter locally and for the region. That being said, caution is the key word for now. Not much to get excited about this way yet. Heavy rain lol.. But for now, we at least have the trends of the winter on our side. Something to watch at least. I'm rooting for a March 08 track lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I'm holding my breath on this one. Hopefully i get another round of snow next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Lets fill in the blank.. Should also be mentioned that a number of the ensemble members are now bombing this thing to sub 980 just east of Detroit tracking up from W.Ohio/se IN. Wow, thanks for that. Yes, thanks for sharing, Harry. Yes. I think some meteorologists become transfixed with the model output and ensemble output verbatim and lose site of what is truly happening out in the raging Pacific. A real threat--but a lot of weather needs to happen. Euro busted hard with the clipper and phase with the polar vortex (and it had tremendous ensemble agreement)--and it is definitely the most bullish here with the phase threat. The threat is real though for some type of storm threat. And thank you for keeping a reality check in place. It would be easy for someone like me to get all 'd up after seeing a track like that on the Euro and start declaring bombogeddon for the Midwest. This will be fun and interesting to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Hey Baro, how's the cras at 84? i think we'll put it in the gfs camp lol...-42 850s up there in n. canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Hey Baro, how's the cras at 84? i think we'll put it in the gfs camp lol...-42 850s up there in n. canada Hey do you have a track outlined for this storm? I am thinking somewhere between Indy-CBUS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The NAM has be suggesting -40's for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Yes, thanks for sharing, Harry. And thank you for keeping a reality check in place. It would be easy for someone like me to get all 'd up after seeing a track like that on the Euro and start declaring bombogeddon for the Midwest. This will be fun and interesting to watch unfold. Definitely a real threat. The raging Pacific is tough for the models though. I still believe a storm unfolds somewhere though. It seems Hoosier will have a successful thread for someone in the region from Texas to the northern plains/great lakes--depending on how the height field unfolds. Hey Baro, how's the cras at 84? i think we'll put it in the gfs camp lol...-42 850s up there in n. canada Haha the CRAS. Throw in the DGEX output--and I like to blend them together. Typically works out great for a height field forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Hey do you have a track outlined for this storm? I am thinking somewhere between Indy-CBUS! my heart says it runs more sw to ne along the baroclinic zone along the ohio river to the mason dixon line. My brain says between Dayton & LAF. If the euro continues to show a cutter at 96 it's OVA for us....period...no matter if every other model is showing a coastal or app track. If between now and then dr.no blinks staring at the gfs and moves east....game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 my heart says it runs more sw to ne along the baroclinic zone along the ohio river to the mason dixon line. My brain says between Dayton & LAF. If the euro continues to show a cutter at 96 it's OVA for us....period...no matter if every other model is showing a coastal or app track. If between now and then dr.no blinks staring at the gfs and moves east....game on. I don't even want to guess about a track right now, but if the phasing works out, I don't see anything to really block this from trying to track inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I don't even want to guess about a track right now, but if the phasing works out, I don't see anything to really block this from trying to track inland. I wouldn't think about the track yet either. I'd wait another 36-48hrs or so and then if the threat is still showing up, think about it. Lets hope the GFS jumps on the sled with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The good thing is that the storm will have a fresh arctic air mass to work with. EC is forecasting a high of -15C for us on Monday, as is The Weather Network. If we can just get the storm to come up into the cold air, we're in the game. It would be great if we could get a storm like the one in early February 1972 which gave Ottawa about 20" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The 0Z NAM at 72 hours is definitely phasing the west coast cyclone with the northern stream through 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 0z NAM at hr 84 looks a LOT like the 12z EURO at 96. 0z NAM 84: 1012 MB LOW N. TX 12z EURO 96: 1012 MB LOW N. TX Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 0z NAM at hr 84 looks a LOT like the 12z EURO at 96. 0z NAM 84: 1012 MB LOW N. TX 12z EURO 96: 1012 MB LOW N. TX Thoughts? It looks identical in the height field along the West Coast. So identical it is almost scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 textbook EE rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It looks identical in the height field. So identical it is almost scary. If this continues the next few days, you know what that means.. EE Rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 It looks identical in the height field along the West Coast. So identical it is almost scary. Yeah very similar. I was thinking maybe even an earlier phase than the Euro on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If this continues the next few days, you know what that means.. EE Rule This is probably the first time ever the "E-N" Euro-NAM rule has ever occurred in the 5 year history of the current NAM-WRF at 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 compare that to the 12z run of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If integrated in time, you can see the NAM would open the gates of the arctic and unleash the baroclinic instability on the poor plebeians in the plains as the phased trough traversed the intermountain W and ejected into the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It's a week away and this much interest, we are all addicts who need serious help. Weather Addicts Anonymous. I could found it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Yeah very similar. I was thinking maybe even an earlier phase than the Euro on there. Not sure about the earlier phase but it is about identical. Really is about a duplicate. My guess is the GFS decides to join the party tonight. Just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Sorry, been following/interpreting models for a while and have not heard of the EE rule. Elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 nam pump'n up those 850s in the MW....damn Those images are valid at different times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Sorry, been following/interpreting models for a while and have not heard of the EE rule. Elaborate? Back in the old days. If the Euro and ETA (earlier version of the NAM) arrived at the same solution, it was pretty likely that it would happen since they both had very different physics packages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Those images are valid at different times. i'll delete...damn ncep. I thought the 850 didn't match the rest of the maps now im getting that error message again on ncep....where's their IT guy been lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It's a week away and this much interest, we are all addicts who need serious help. Weather Addicts Anonymous. I could found it. You couldn't call it that. The acronym would be WAA. Sorry, back to the possible storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 i'll delete...damn ncep. I thought the 850 didn't match the rest of the maps It is warmer than the Euro though. Actually I'd be a little concerned with what that would show if we rolled it forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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