End of January/early February storm potential?

[Hoosier]

I agree, especially for areas along and North of I-70 in Indiana. Will all depend on where this low tracks, but as I said a few pages back, just with the air masses we have in play alone, this thing has some ice potential with it.

Yeah it will depend on what this system looks like in the end, but the current banana high type surface configuration on the EC/UK would strongly support a transition zone with ice.

[buckeye]

Yeah it will depend on what this system looks like in the end, but the current banana high type surface configuration on the EC/UK would strongly support a transition zone with ice.

if it keeps plowing north east i would think the ice threat would be minimal, other then briefly on the front end. Don't you usually need a storm to get blocked west to east with overrunning for a good icing event?

[Powerball]

Now you guys know that when I get excited about a storm this far out it's almost a given.

(J/K, sorta).

[Hoosier]

if it keeps plowing north east i would think the ice threat would be minimal, other then briefly on the front end. Don't you usually need a storm to get blocked west to east with overrunning for a good icing event?

I think multiple weaker waves would be ideal. If we get a rapidly deepening low, then more rapid airmass modification becomes likely which may reduce the amount/longevity of icing in any one location. Way too early to tell just how big of a threat ice will be, but it'd basically be a given in this type of setup.

[A-L-E-K]

18z DGEX is going to play ball. Looks a little earlier with the threat though, around 108-132. Only reason I mention it is because it may be a sign of things to come wrt the 18z GFS.

Fat lady warming up for hyper suppresed 0z gfs solution?

[Indystorm]

I agree, especially for areas along and North of I-70 in Indiana. Will all depend on where this low tracks, but as I said a few pages back, just with the air masses we have in play alone, this thing has some ice potential with it.

We're also getting into the time of year climate wise when we can have our worst ice storms in this area.

[Baum]

Fat lady warming up for hyper suppresed 0z gfs solution?

have a hunch this maybe our one hooker of the year to enjoy

[dilly84]

From CLE regarding next week

MODEL CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY GOING INTO

EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LATEST ECMWF RUN STILL SHOWING INTENSIFYING LOW

PRESSURE TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE GFS

SHOWS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE

PLAINS STATES AND EAST INTO THE REGION. GEM SHOWING LOW PRESSURE

DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST AND TRACKING TO MID ATLANTIC DURING

THIS TIME. FOR NOW MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH

SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GEM SOLUTION

INDICATING A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE THAT COULD POSSIBLY TRACK IN

VICINITY OF APPALACHIANS.

[snowstormcanuck]

Fat lady warming up for hyper suppresed 0z gfs solution?

Don't have to worry about the let down of that. DGEX couldn't convince the GFS to come along for the ride.

[TheWeatherPimp]

Don't have to worry about the let down of that. DGEX couldn't convince the GFS to come along for the ride.

This is the first run of the DGEX that has jumped on board, previous runs were all suppressed, so I guess a step in the right direction.

[Madmaxweather]

18z GFS says NO... COLD and dry.. Which would I much rather have now EURO or GFS... You can easily guess lol

[baroclinic_instability]

The differences are amazing. Within the first 48 hours--the GFS takes the first weak wave and phases that with the northern stream and incites strong CAA and the development of the trough into the CONUS ahead of that trailing Pacific Wave 66-84 hours out. It misses the second phase as a result. The good news is the guidance should have much of that cleared up within 24 hours, and those details make this forecast. It is either a go or a no-go.

[JoMo]

Pretty big difference down here between the 18z run and the 12z run, that's for sure.

[snowstormcanuck]

The differences are amazing. Within the first 48 hours--the GFS takes the first weak wave and phases that with the northern stream and incites strong CAA and the development of the trough into the CONUS ahead of that trailing Pacific Wave 66-84 hours out. It misses the second phase as a result. The good news is the guidance should have much of that cleared up within 24 hours, and those details make this forecast. It is either a go or a no-go.

I was more skeptical about this potential yesterday. However, with essentially every model aside from the GFS jumping on board, I'm more confident today in stating that there will in all likelihood be some type of storm during the 120-168 hour timeframe. Only question is where and how much.

[wisconsinwx]

The differences are amazing. Within the first 48 hours--the GFS takes the first weak wave and phases that with the northern stream and incites strong CAA and the development of the trough into the CONUS ahead of that trailing Pacific Wave 66-84 hours out. It misses the second phase as a result. The good news is the guidance should have much of that cleared up within 24 hours, and those details make this forecast. It is either a go or a no-go.

Do you think, then, that if the Euro reigns supreme tomorrow night, SOMEONE in the Midwest will be looking at a major snowstorm early next week?

[A-L-E-K]

The differences are amazing. Within the first 48 hours--the GFS takes the first weak wave and phases that with the northern stream and incites strong CAA and the development of the trough into the CONUS ahead of that trailing Pacific Wave 66-84 hours out. It misses the second phase as a result. The good news is the guidance should have much of that cleared up within 24 hours, and those details make this forecast. It is either a go or a no-go.

Agree with this, i think we're going to know pretty quick here whether we're looking at an event or nothing even close.

[Stevo6899]

Agree with this, i think we're going to know pretty quick here whether we're looking at an event or nothing even close.

Wish it was like this for every storm. That way we don't spend a week tracking it and 2 days before it misses a phase.

[A-L-E-K]

Wish it was like this for every storm. That way we don't spend a week tracking it and 2 days before it misses a phase.

not quite what i was saying, the track won't be decided anytime soon, i just thing we'll have some of the more near term issues cleared up soon that will lets us know if there will even be a storm.

[baroclinic_instability]

I was more skeptical about this potential yesterday. However, with essentially every model aside from the GFS jumping on board, I'm more confident today in stating that there will in all likelihood be some type of storm during the 120-168 hour timeframe. Only question is where and how much.

Perhaps--I remain partially skeptical of anything since the wave in question is still a tiny ripple on the screaming Pacific Jet and it still needs to break off and undergo cyclogenesis--and things can change fast with these events. I like the one disco that said no model really will likely be right and the details lie somewhere in between at this moment.

Do you think, then, that if the Euro reigns supreme tomorrow night, SOMEONE in the Midwest will be looking at a major snowstorm early next week?

Were the Euro to verify as is--yeah it would be quite a storm.

Agree with this, i think we're going to know pretty quick here whether we're looking at an event or nothing even close.

Yeah--that is the good news. The wave in question way out in the Pacific will have detached from the Pacific jet and the models will have a much better idea of exactly how this incoming clipper tracks and, subsequently, how much cold air comes in behind it and the chance of an early phase like the GFS--or a late phase like the Euro--or perhaps something in the middle.

[natecast]

So the 18Z GFS shows a little over 1.0" total QPF between hrs 138-162 across much of OK & the TX panhandle, falling as mainly snow. Certainly wish this run would occur 4-5 days from today.

[wisconsinwx]

So the 18Z GFS shows a little over 1.0" total QPF between hrs 138-162 across much of OK & TX, falling as mainly snow. Certainly wish this run would occur 4-5 days from today.

The GFS clearly just loves the south.

[baroclinic_instability]

If anyone wants an idea how amped the Pacific is--check this.

A good hurricane force cyclone out there right now south of the Aleutians. Things change fast with this type of setup.

[natecast]

Thanks for posting that BARO! Do we know if sampling of the Pacific is still occuring as it was last week, and being fed into the models?

[JoMo]

So the 18Z GFS shows a little over 1.0" total QPF between hrs 138-162 across much of OK & the TX panhandle, falling as mainly snow. Certainly wish this run would occur 4-5 days from today.

Yeah, this is just 10:1 ratio I think but it would be a big storm for you all and just to my south. I wouldn't get excited for anything yet as it's likely to change many times.

[baroclinic_instability]

Thanks for posting that BARO! Do we know if sampling of the Pacific is still occuring as it was last week, and being fed into the models?

Good question--I am not 100% sure. Check this--sounds like a negative for tomorrow for the Pacific. Not sure if anyone has other links. I know there are other links for recon missions--I just don't remember what they are.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml

[natecast]

Right now it's hard for me to believe we're going to get that sort of moisture fed into the storm in OK with the drought that is intensifying. We've gone from historic flooding in June to severe drought currently in cent. OK. Right now we're on pace for our driest Dec-Feb period on record.

[Harry]

another look at the Euro ensemble mean

Lets fill in the blank..

Should also be mentioned that a number of the ensemble members are now bombing this thing to sub 980 just east of Detroit tracking up from W.Ohio/se IN.

[Organizing Low]

See ya tomorrow or Friday

just saw the 18z, it has a storm at least!

[SEMIweather]

So the 18Z GFS shows a little over 1.0" total QPF between hrs 138-162 across much of OK & the TX panhandle, falling as mainly snow. Certainly wish this run would occur 4-5 days from today.

Lock it in.

[Hoosier]

Lets fill in the blank..

Should also be mentioned that a number of the ensemble members are now bombing this thing to sub 980 just east of Detroit tracking up from W.Ohio/se IN.

Wow, thanks for that.