End of January/early February storm potential?

[Moneyman]

I don’t know about this, if we’re still seeing the same solution run after run by Friday night when we get into a better range, we can talk.

I agree, it's way too early to say if the EURO is right etc. But when was the last time this winter we saw a lake cutter in the 120-180 timeframe that the EURO eventually lost? I don't recall that happening this winter (I could be wrong)

I'm just saying that usually it doesn't happen very often.

[Harry]

not sure about the Apps part

but the Euro absolutely **** the bed in new york state and new england.

Euro did better then the GFS overall and thus my point.

None of them did all that great though as they each had some issue somewhere. GFS was too supressed/too cold, Euro blew it in New England. blah..

[prinsburg_wx]

12z GFS ensembles has a few members showing the potential

[Chicago Storm]

DVN: 0.74"

LSE: 0.58"

MSP: 0.26"

STL: 0.79"

JLN: 0.38"

PAH: 0.52"

LAF: 0.60"

MSN: 0.82"

MKE: 1.00"

GRR: 0.70"

CMH: 0.80

ORD: 0.79"

DTW: 0.57"

OMA: 0.63"

DSM: 0.92"

FLD: 0.73"

IND: 0.69"

PIA: 0.78"

SDF: 0.68"

GFK: 0.04"

YYZ: 0.64"

CLE: 0.73"

FWA: 0.63"

DAY: 0.76"

EVV: 0.56"

[Harry]

Potentially the first storm to tap the gulf. Maybe it will make up for lost time and drop 30 inches

Only one such system comes to mind ( not saying it either )that had the same kinda track and dumped that kind of snow around here and well i think it will take a bit more then what is showing now to get to those amounts. Could be wrong but i would bet anything that wont happen here.

I don’t know about this, if we’re still seeing the same solution run after run by Friday night when we get into a better range, we can talk.

This..

Get it INSIDE of day 5 and i'll start to get more excited. Get it inside of day 3 and i'll be alot more excited, Inside of 24hrs and well i'll have to go change my shorts.

[kab2791]

DET would see a mix bag of everything...better than the 00Z which turned to plain rain.

[buckeye]

12z JMA is a true spread the wealth. Almost everyone in this forum would get wintry precip.

still hasn't updated on accuwx....thnx i was wondering. It had a pretty massive storm on yesterdays 12z 192

[A-L-E-K]

12z GFS ensembles has a few members showing the potential

They looked better earlier in the run before being squashed.

[JoMo]

Thanks Chicago Storm .

Hey Hoosier, what about adding a 'thanks' button to the forum individual posts like I've seen on some forums?

[toronto blizzard]

DVN: 0.74"

LSE: 0.58"

MSP: 0.26"

STL: 0.79"

JLN: 0.38"

PAH: 0.52"

LAF: 0.60"

MSN: 0.82"

MKE: 1.00"

GRR: 0.70"

CMH: 0.80"

DTW: 0.57"

OMA: 0.63"

DSM: 0.92"

FLD: 0.73"

IND: 0.69"

PIA: 0.78"

SDF: 0.68"

GFK: 0.04"

YYZ: 0.64"

CLE: 0.73"

FWA: 0.63"

DAY: 0.76"

EVV: 0.56"

Would the 0.64 at YYZ be all snow?

[Madmaxweather]

still hasn't updated on accuwx....thnx i was wondering. It had a pretty massive storm on yesterdays 12z 192

We need this baby to go more east now lol... What you thinking? Is the EURO on to something. Mainly rain for me and you lol. Man oh man we may doing the east chant now instead of a west chant. lol

[The_Global_Warmer]

Those are large QPF amounts......79 for STL and it looks like a lot of it falls after temps drop.

That is pretty cool.

many times we have been on the SE side of the heaviest snow and have models say big amounts even close to the event then it goes NW.

[A-L-E-K]

HPC final extended on 12z models

GFS ESSENTIALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED SYNOPTICALLY FROM ITS EARLIER

RUNS. GEFS MEAN ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH ITS SW US

UPPER LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT OTHERWISE HELD STEADY. THE 12Z UKMET

SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF... SHOWING A SHARPER

TROUGH NEAR 96W BY TUE/D6. CANADIAN IS IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND

GFS. WILL HOLD THE COURSE FOR NOW AND LEAVE EARLIER FORECAST

UNCHANGED FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE.

[Hoosier]

still hasn't updated on accuwx....thnx i was wondering. It had a pretty massive storm on yesterdays 12z 192

I only got it to 144 but up to that point and then extrapolating, it looks like it would be very widespread.

[BowMeHunter]

If you want to look at a negative, it looks like (based on e wall alone) that the Euro is starting to bring that Pac energy into the country in chunks, things still worked out, but that wouldn’t be a good trend.

Good post.

C'yas tonight.. Hopefully this plays out like the improbable Packers end of season and run in the playoffs. Giants down, 2 more good runs and it's down with the Bears and out to Philly. Chances of this storm being the big one for me are probably as big of a long shot as it was for the Packers to make the SB the route they had to take.

[A-L-E-K]

I only got it to 144 but up to that point and then extrapolating, it looks like it would be very widespread.

Has the JMA scored any hits this year? I don't follow it at all.

[Harry]

Thanks Chicago Storm .

Hey Hoosier, what about adding a 'thanks' button to the forum individual posts like I've seen on some forums?

That requires a modification to this software and yes there is one for that. Some forum software it is built in such as vB/XenForo. May wanna request that in the Forum Information & Help forum.

Pretty easy to install.

[prinsburg_wx]

I only got it to 144 but up to that point and then extrapolating, it looks like it would be very widespread.

jma 168 storm over GA then ots as it tries to move up the coast

[Hoosier]

Has the JMA scored any hits this year? I don't follow it at all.

Not sure. I usually don't look at it unless there's potential for a big event, and well, there haven't been a lot of good opportunities this winter.

[buckeye]

Dude.. Look back at how ALL the models handled this current system. Thus see a few posts back and the one i made. I need not say which model blew it with temps and having a surface low on the spine in sw VA.

Thus east is least of my worries.

true, but the euro was too far nw on many runs. I recall the 168 showing a track up thru WV hammering OH. I also recall a couple of runs around the 120 hr timeframe with the low going inland to albany NY. Upstate to PItt had many runs showing them get buried by the euro, remember the run Dilly got 1.55" and CMH got .66? The euro did eventually correct southeast inside 120 and now its verification time and best snows end up DC to s. new england..

Now before you hammer back at me, , you should know my money would STILL go entirely on the euro and a cutter idea... As someone mentioned here, (moneyman), once the euro sniffs onto a cutter it tends to stay with it.

But then again, this has been the winter where everything that you use to count on.....well you know the rest.

[Chicago Storm]

Would the 0.64 at YYZ be all snow?

Looks like mostly, if not all snow through 12z Wed.

[buckeye]

Not sure. I usually don't look at it unless there's potential for a big event, and well, there haven't been a lot of good opportunities this winter.

it actually handled this current storm pretty well. Had about the same error early on of bringing precip a little too far north into OH and PA like a lot of the other models, but it never went crazy with a cutter or suppression.

[buckeye]

it actually handled this current storm pretty well. Had about the same error early on of bringing precip a little too far north into OH and PA like a lot of the other models, but it never went crazy with a cutter or suppression.

by the way, its south of yesterdays run looks like

[Hoosier]

by the way, its south of yesterdays run looks like

Yesterday's run had a 994 mb low in eastern Indiana.

[buckeye]

Yesterday's run had a 994 mb low in eastern Indiana.

yup between muncie and ft wayne looks like

[Harry]

true, but the euro was too far nw on many runs. I recall the 168 showing a track up thru WV hammering OH. I also recall a couple of runs around the 120 hr timeframe with the low going inland to albany NY. Upstate to PItt had many runs showing them get buried by the euro, remember the run Dilly got 1.55" and CMH got .66? The euro did eventually correct southeast inside 120 and now its verification time and best snows end up DC to s. new england..

Now before you hammer back at me, , you should know my money would STILL go entirely on the euro and a cutter idea... As someone mentioned here, (moneyman), once the euro sniffs onto a cutter it tends to stay with it.

But then again, this has been the winter where everything that you use to count on.....well you know the rest.

I hear you. As mentioned above all the models shat the bed in some form or another. GFS as mentioned was far too cold and to suppressed. See the original storm thread and note the dates.

Also as mentioned lets get this puppy inside of day 5/96hrs showing what it is now on the euro and i'll get more excited.

[buckeye]

I hear you. As mentioned above all the models shat the bed in some form or another. GFS as mentioned was far too cold and to suppressed. See the original storm thread and note the dates.

Also as mentioned lets get this puppy inside of day 5/96hrs showing what it is now on the euro and i'll get more excited.

i betcha i can predict what the gfs will do. In the next day or two it'll start finding the storm....then, in about 2-3 days it'll model it as a KU blockbuster. The MA and NE weenies will start doing backflips. DT will be woofing...radio shows will be scheduled...board will go back into ACTIVATION STORM MODE DEFCOM 4.

Then a few runs later it''ll start folding hard to the euro....and Ji will cancel winter and b**ch that the only snowstorm he got fell in 4 hours and was 6" of cement that didn't stick to the roads

[Organizing Low]

i betcha i can predict what the gfs will do. In the next day or two it'll start finding the storm....then, in about 2-3 days it'll model it as a KU blockbuster. The MA and NE weenies will start doing backflips. DT will be woofing...radio shows will be scheduled...board will go back into ACTIVATION STORM MODE DEFCOM 4.

Then a few runs later it''ll start folding hard to the euro....and Ji will cancel winter and b**ch that the only snowstorm he got fell in 4 hours and was 6" of cement that didn't stick to the roads

lol

[RitualOfTheTrout]

true, but the euro was too far nw on many runs. I recall the 168 showing a track up thru WV hammering OH. I also recall a couple of runs around the 120 hr timeframe with the low going inland to albany NY. Upstate to PItt had many runs showing them get buried by the euro, remember the run Dilly got 1.55" and CMH got .66? The euro did eventually correct southeast inside 120 and now its verification time and best snows end up DC to s. new england..

Now before you hammer back at me, , you should know my money would STILL go entirely on the euro and a cutter idea... As someone mentioned here, (moneyman), once the euro sniffs onto a cutter it tends to stay with it.

But then again, this has been the winter where everything that you use to count on.....well you know the rest.

Yeah at one point ( I think it was one of the 00z runs) the Euro showed PITT with almost 2"qpf. The Euro and the GGEM were consistently to far NW with the Euro caving first to the eastern idea.

[wisconsinwx]

The incredible thing to me about this storm is that, even with a track going pretty far south through Evansville, MKE gets the highest QPF total of the major cities, and it should be all snow. Does this QPF amount include the two minor clippers, or just the potential storm for early next week?