natecast Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So far sounds like a good track for OKC...since I don't have access to Euro maps, any precip in central OK? BTW, longtime lurker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HR 156 is Sub 1000 MB low in NE IND. Wide area of LT-MOD precip with pockets of MOD-HVY precip. Nice hit for WI/IL/MI/E.IND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So not as wound up as 0z but not a turd, pretty much what was expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'll say the 12z EURO will have a sub 1000 MB low in the W. part of Ohio. Gonna be SE of it's 0z run imo. lol dam good guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 a lot of win right here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So not as wound up as 0z but not a turd, pretty much what was expected. It's basically the 12z GGEM from yesterday. ORD burried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HR 162: Sub 1000 MB LOW near Detroit. LT-MOD precip in WI, N. IL, and MI. MOD-HVY precip in C. MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 bomb over stebo's head at 168 993mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HR 168: Sub 992 MB LOW E of DET. LT-MOD precip in E. WI NW MI. LT precip surrounding those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HR 162: Sub 1000 MB LOW near Detroit. LT-MOD precip in WI, N. IL, and MI. MOD-HVY precip in C. MI. I wouldnt freak out out if your SEMI... Still a decent run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's basically the 12z GGEM from yesterday. ORD burried. Consistency has to count for something and the ECM has certainly been consistent with a cutter. I think the GFS made some strides today despite still failing and i think the NAM has a look more in line with the ECM as well. There's something to watch here, but you do get the feeling it's one of those scenarios where once one little thing changes, it falls apart quick. Evansville to DTW is a dream track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Me and Buckeye get torched! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So far sounds like a good track for OKC...since I don't have access to Euro maps, any precip in central OK? BTW, longtime lurker! .14" QPF...thinking about .04" of that would be snow. It falls over nearly two days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Once the EURO locks onto a cutter idea, it ususally does happen. How many fantasy lake cutters do you see on the EURO? Not many. This is at least the 4th or 5th run in a row where it takes a pretty strong low to the great lakes. Obviously we are still 6 days away, and things can change in a hurry, but if everything falls into place, someone in the midwest could see a lot of snow. Plus I feel more confident since it's the EURO showing this rather then the GFS or GEM. It's too early though to freak out or get excited on every model run. At least it shows a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Consistency has to count for something and the ECM has certainly been consistent with a cutter. I think the GFS made some strides today despite still failing and i think the NAM has a look more in line with the ECM as well. There's something to watch here, but you do get the feeling it's one of those scenarios where once one little thing changes, it falls apart quick. Evansville to DTW is a dream track. The NAM at 500mb is actually quite similar to the ECMWF at 84hrs. The only real difference is that the trough moving into the Pac NW is a bit faster on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sounds like a rainer for St. Louis, maybe ending as snow..correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I can't wait to see the qpf....I bet it will have some snow here, but probably to far north of a good track for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sounds like a rainer for St. Louis, maybe ending as snow..correct? More Snow... Little Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The NAM at 500mb is actually quite similar to the ECMWF at 84hrs. The only real difference is that the trough moving into the Pac NW is a bit faster on the NAM. Yeah that's what i thought. The best ones always require a little bit of needle threading luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Consistency has to count for something and the ECM has certainly been consistent with a cutter. I think the GFS made some strides today despite still failing and i think the NAM has a look more in line with the ECM as well. There's something to watch here, but you do get the feeling it's one of those scenarios where once one little thing changes, it falls apart quick. Evansville to DTW is a dream track. Euro has been pretty consistent in the overall idea. This run is a true kitchen sink storm for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 .14" QPF...thinking about .04" of that would be snow. It falls over nearly two days though. Thanks! I did ask if there was precip, and not how much, didn't I? So far, it sounds similar to what we've seen so far in the Southern Plains this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 I can't wait to see the qpf....I bet it will have some snow here, but probably to far north of a good track for us. Best snows on this run would probably be northwest of a STL-DTW line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Best snows on this run would probably be northwest of a STL-DTW line. Would be better then nothing..but still a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I wouldnt freak out out if your SEMI... Still a decent run I agree. All depends when this thing starts to really intensify. Not that it matters but it's good to see the GGEM, Ukmet and the euro ensembles further Se than NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Dude.. Look back at how ALL the models handled this current system. Thus see a few posts back and the one i made. I need not say which model blew it with temps and having a surface low on the spine in sw VA. Thus east is least of my worries. not sure about the Apps part but the Euro absolutely **** the bed in new york state and new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Best snows on this run would probably be northwest of a STL-DTW line. Like Chicago it is the dream track for here with such a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Like Chicago it is the dream track for here with such a system. Potentially the first storm to tap the gulf. Maybe it will make up for lost time and drop 30 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Once the EURO locks onto a cutter idea, it ususally does happen. How many fantasy lake cutters do you see on the EURO? Not many. This is at least the 4th or 5th run in a row where it takes a pretty strong low to the great lakes. Obviously we are still 6 days away, and things can change in a hurry, but if everything falls into place, someone in the midwest could see a lot of snow. Plus I feel more confident since it's the EURO showing this rather then the GFS or GEM. It's too early though to freak out or get excited on every model run. At least it shows a storm. I don’t know about this, if we’re still seeing the same solution run after run by Friday night when we get into a better range, we can talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 12z JMA is a true spread the wealth. Almost everyone in this forum would get wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If you want to look at a negative, it looks like (based on e wall alone) that the Euro is starting to bring that Pac energy into the country in chunks, things still worked out, but that wouldn’t be a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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