buckeye Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 im rooting for one of those sw to ne spread-the-lov'n overrunning scenarios. But man, quite a few of those look really nice....and a few a bit wet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 JB's thoughts, (think of it like posting 192 hr nogaps....entertainment), "I like the major storm, perhaps cutting far enough west for a warmup on the coast and the stronger shot of cold down the plains. Its torture, and that is the only world I can use to describe it," He says it's torture because he believes the gfs is out to lunch maybe someone should post that in ji's midatlantic thread Tempting for sure, but dont want to stir the pot lol. DC, as expected, is having a horrible winter. 3" total snowfall so far while up the coast is getting buried. They look to get some snow with todays storm, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GGEM, I know I know, but here's the 0z GGEM ensembles from e-Wall. A few players out on the field in some form or other. Here is the euro ensembles. Black line is the OP. Be back shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Good stuff, thanks for posting those Harry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Izzi SPEAKING OF MODELS NOT PERFORMING THEIR BEST...A FORECASTER WOULDPROBABLY BE ABOUT AS EFFECTIVE GRABBING THEIR METEOROLOGICAL OUIJA BOARD AS THEY WOULD EXAMINING AND COMBING THROUGH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE OUTPUT. ITS ANYBODY`S GUESS WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LATEST ECMWF IS ABOUT 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ECMWF SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE EAST WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS DUMPS A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE...LEFT POPS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS IN THE GRIDS DURING THIS TIME RANGE DONT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LATEST ECMWF WHICH WOULD RESULT IN TEMPS A GOOD 20F+ WARMER THAN GOING FORECAST. SCREAMING MESSAGE HERE IS DON`T MAKE OR CANCEL ANY PLANS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON OUR CURRENT FORECASTS! DVN sounds equally as unsure, but drops much more in the way of weenie nuggets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Izzi DVN sounds equally as unsure, but drops much more in the way of weenie nuggets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Tempting for sure, but dont want to stir the pot lol. DC, as expected, is having a horrible winter. 3" total snowfall so far while up the coast is getting buried. They look to get some snow with todays storm, but still. Why? If he is allowed to do it i see no reason why anyone cant post in their thread. Good stuff, thanks for posting those Harry. NP man. I admit i am surprised the euro went this route. I think though that the clue probably resides with the ensembles. Basically means that the quicker this thing develops/explodes the greater chance it has of going further to the NW. That's me though. Not sure where this idea is coming from that the euro has had a parade of systems tracking up this way all winter either? And as far as the current system goes and how the models handled it. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/9245-january-24th-26th-winter-storm-potential/ And what we have. No Ohio or whatever may not be getting bombed with QPF however we still have ended up with a primary that managed to sneak up the spine of the apps. Dare i say which model did not have it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The longer the GFS holds its ground, the greater the feeling of foreboding. In Vegas they say never bet against a streak because a streak only ends once. The streak this winter has been suppression, clippers and storms blowing up on the coast. While my heart wants to see the Euro verify, my head says not to go against the streak. Plus, it’s never a good sign when JI posts something relevant in your thread. Mike, nice first post. I agree completely. What gives me hope though is that nothing ever lasts forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Why? If he is allowed to do it i see no reason why anyone cant post in their thread. NP man. I admit i am surprised the euro went this route. I think though that the clue probably resides with the ensembles. Basically means that the quicker this thing develops/explodes the greater chance it has of going further to the NW. That's me though. Not sure where this idea is coming from that the euro has had a parade of systems tracking up this way all winter either? And as far as the current system goes and how the models handled it. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/9245-january-24th-26th-winter-storm-potential/ And what we have. No Ohio or whatever may not be getting bombed with QPF however we still have ended up with a primary that managed to sneak up the spine of the apps. Dare i say which model did not have it? Also worth noting the temps the models had been advertising back then vs what we have and have had the past couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The differences with the cold air mass over the plains by only hour 78 on the NAM and GFS are pretty monster. Phase or no phase, the GFS is still the most aggressive in bringing in an initial cold shot with the NAM much more aggressive in pumping up a ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The differences with the cold air mass over the plains by only hour 78 on the NAM and GFS are pretty monster. Phase or no phase, the GFS is still the most aggressive in bringing in an initial cold shot with the NAM much more aggressive in pumping up a ridge. Yep and based on what i noted above i am not sure which to favor at this point. Middle of the road deal is probably the best course of action for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GGEM, I know I know, but here's the 0z GGEM ensembles from e-Wall. A few players out on the field in some form or other. Nice find there Tim. Didn't realize the GGEM ensembles were available on ewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yep and based on what i noted above i am not sure which to favor at this point. Middle of the road deal is probably the best course of action for now. For no other reason than gut feeling, my belief in a Euro solution of even NW of there is increasing, seasonal trends and GFS be damned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Nice find there Tim. Didn't realize the GGEM ensembles were available on ewall. that makes two of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 For no other reason than gut feeling, my belief in a Euro solution of even NW of there is increasing, seasonal trends and GFS be damned. Not sure about further nw ( see central/eastern Canada ) but a system close to what the euro is depicting seems reasonable. Gonna take a ton of more shuffling of the pattern to get it further nw. One way to do that would be to flip the ridge out west into a trough instead and thus sending all the cold etc in Canada to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 DVN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE 00Z RUN GFS SKIRTS A LIGHT SNOW MAKING WAVE ACRS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC DUMP ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH COMMENCES TO FLOW DOWN THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE OMINOUS WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING INDUCING A LARGE SFC WAVE AND INVERTED TROF COMPLEX FOR A POTENTIALLY MAJOR SNOW EVENT ACRS THE REGION MON INTO TUE. IN FACT THE NEW 00Z RUN EURO PAINTS WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA DEF ZONE SNOWS ACRS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA LATER MON AND MON NIGHT...WITH STRONG SFC WINDS OF 25 TO 35+ MPH FOLLOWING IN BEHIND THE PASSING SFC WAVE FOR BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS INTO TUE MORNING AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER FAR NORTHEAST IL AND SOUTHERN LK MI AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT SURGES DOWN THE MO RVR VALLEY. WITH SUCH DISCREPANCIES...WILL PAINT MONDAY WITH MENTIONABLE 30 POPS FOR SNOW AND AWAIT FURTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS AND TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS FOR MORE DEFINITION AND CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL SCENARIO. BUT ONE THING FOR SURE...BUILDING COLD DOME/LLVL COLD DENSE AIR MASS LURKING ACRS CANADA WILL WANT TO GATHER MOMENTUM AND SPILL DOWN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS SOMETIME...AND IN SOME MANNER NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This forecast happens at 90-102 hours. If those waves don't phase--it is game over. The stalwart GFS keeps a strong Pacific Ridge in place and kills the eastward progression of the Pacific baroclinic waves. Euro plows right through it like nothing is there lol. I still think Euro has a smaller chance of verifying--but it shows the potential were it to verify. not quite there yet, but the 12z GFS is handling things a bit differently in the PAC NW than 0z. If i had to guess, it's a minor shift towards a less supressed run. EDIT: by 102, much different than 0z. 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Huge differences on the 12z GFS, definitely a step towards the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Huge differences on the 12z GFS, definitely a step towards the EURO no doubt. 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looking like the DR may have to show the Scrub Model the way again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looking like the DR may have to show the Scrub Model the way again. The GFS certainly has blinked first in this showdown although despited the pac energy holding together better, it gets abandoned in the southwest and the cold air comes a calling. So all in all, it ends up the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The 12z GFS is not there yet, but it took a big step towards the 00z configuration. Red flags towards any GFS solution at this point, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The 12z GFS is not there yet, but it took a big step towards the 00z configuration. Red flags towards any GFS solution at this point, IMO. It still brings down the artic pain with extreme force and doesn't allow the storm that it acutally does drop into the southwest on this run to amplify for squat. If the GFS is overdoing the artic dump, i think this would look a lot more like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On the 00z ECMWF, it shows a 1049mb high over eastern Montana, and a low over Michigan at 168 hours. If this verifies, northern Colorado would get 4" of snow and then could be -15C to -20C the next day. At 168 hours, heavy snow would be in Milwaukee and Chicago. The ECMWF ensemble mean has a low at Georgia at 168 hours, and it certainly has some differences from the operational ECMWF. If you take a look at the 0z GFS and GFS Ensembles, there are even more differences. On both the GFS and ensembles, there is mainly high pressure in the Midwest in this time frame, with hardly any low pressure development anywhere. Operational ECMWF: ECMWF ensemble mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The GFS certainly has blinked first in this showdown although despited the pac energy holding together better, it gets abandoned in the southwest and the cold air comes a calling. So all in all, it ends up the same. Its a start at least and I'll admit I'm bored and chucked my biggest Musky Lure out to see if B-I would take the bait. I just hope it at least could be as nice as the 12z Euro showed yesterday in the end - be quite the hit for most all and a lot more fun on the board.. But its also getting to that time in season where every big storm starved man and woman's backyard for themselves and I can't deny I would love for it to cut through LAF into MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Its a start at least and I'll admit I'm bored and chucked my biggest Musky Lure out to see if B-I would take the bait. I just hope it at least could be as nice as the 12z Euro showed yesterday in the end - be quite the hit for most all and a lot more fun on the board.. But its also getting to that time in season where every big storm starved man and woman's backyard for themselves and I can't deny I would love for it to cut through LAF into MI. you got your superbowl! Were left to argue about our franchise QB's Cajones....this thing needs to move from southwest of Indy to Toledo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Getting Kokomo, IN @ WI 6+ inches is my hopes. 12z Euro yesterday would probably do that if I got a little help from LM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 you got your superbowl! Were left to argue about our franchise QB's Cajones....this thing needs to move from southwest of Indy to Toledo! You'd make out pretty good with a LAF track... I put the nail in this winters coffin anyways by picking up 2 sleds on craigslist.. Congrats, Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 you got your superbowl! Were left to argue about our franchise QB's Cajones....this thing needs to move from southwest of Indy to Toledo! LMAO at that Cutler Pic!! WOW :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GGEM isn't buying into the GFS but it wouldn't be good for anyone here except probably Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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