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End of January/early February storm potential?


Hoosier

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Strong arctic high, strong southern stream impulse. Sounds like major storm potential to me. I guess we will see.

Potential means little when the detail is a phasing wave and the probability that wave has of phasing (somewhat low right now). We have to be going on storm threat 5 now that has a TON of potential with the none of the previous phasing as required. That disco someone posted earlier said it well regarding the lack of phasing this year.

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OMA .57

GFK .18

MSP .61

LSE 1.25

JLN .49

PAH .33

STL .26

PIA .69

DVN 1.26

ORD .77

MKE 1.14

GRR .67

DTW .53

IND .43

LAF .36

DAY .64

CMH .66

YYZ .59

CLE .58

CVG .62

LEX .57

MKC .58

DSM .79

PIT .38

EVV .47

CPS .24

LOU .60

Thanks for posting this dilly.

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Thanks Dilly. Appreciate it.

Hopefully the euro is onto something. I don't know how well it has done latley, but I do remember it nailing the first storm in December (most models were way, way south, euro had like 6-7 straight runs of taking the low to Chicago etc)

Who knows, at least it is something to track.

Gotta finish some homework, then off to bed.

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Thanks Dilly. Appreciate it.

Hopefully the euro is onto something. I don't know how well it has done latley, but I do remember it nailing the first storm in December (most models were way, way south, euro had like 6-7 straight runs of taking the low to Chicago etc)

Who knows, at least it is something to track.

Gotta finish some homework, then off to bed.

I usually get nervous when the Euro is the one that is north. Tough pattern though and we're still a long way out.

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I usually get nervous when the Euro is the one that is north. Tough pattern though and we're still a long way out.

Actually at this range its tended to be too far nw. This range out from the current storm on the euro i was getting "congrats buckeye".

it is interesting we have the euro cutting, the ggem as a coastal, and the gfs as suppressed. oh, and the ukie at 144 looked like some sort of compromise with a possible overrunning.

need to remember this as a marking point to see which model did better at 168 when verification rolls around.

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lol, I'm going to have to side with the Ji camp. Sorry.

The longer the GFS holds its ground, the greater the feeling of foreboding. In Vegas they say never bet against a streak because a streak only ends once. The streak this winter has been suppression, clippers and storms blowing up on the coast. While my heart wants to see the Euro verify, my head says not to go against the streak. Plus, it’s never a good sign when JI posts something relevant in your thread.

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The longer the GFS holds its ground, the greater the feeling of foreboding. In Vegas they say never bet against a streak because a streak only ends once. The streak this winter has been suppression, clippers and storms blowing up on the coast. While my heart wants to see the Euro verify, my head says not to go against the streak. Plus, it’s never a good sign when JI posts something relevant in your thread.

The streak this winter has also been for the OP Euro to never find a coastal it didn't like and to be the king of models. The ensembles being southeast of the OP is no surprise. The sensible weather differences for this area are about as huge as you can get between the GFS and Euro. I'll split the difference and favor something similar to the last few events with an unphased event along a pos/neutral trough pushing through the lower OH Valley and coastal. All that said, the longer the Euro holds serve (or continues moving NW) the less confidence i'll have in the GFS and adjust my split accordingly.

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The streak this winter has also been for the OP Euro to never find a coastal it didn't like and to be the king of models. The ensembles being southeast of the OP is no surprise. The sensible weather differences for this area are about as huge as you can get between the GFS and Euro. I'll split the difference and favor something similar to the last few events with an unphased event along a pos/neutral trough pushing through the lower OH Valley and coastal. All that said, the longer the Euro holds serve (or continues moving NW) the less confidence i'll have in the GFS and adjust my split accordingly.

bolded: also very true

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The streak this winter has also been for the OP Euro to never find a coastal it didn't like and to be the king of models. The ensembles being southeast of the OP is no surprise. The sensible weather differences for this area are about as huge as you can get between the GFS and Euro. I'll split the difference and favor something similar to the last few events with an unphased event along a pos/neutral trough pushing through the lower OH Valley and coastal. All that said, the longer the Euro holds serve (or continues moving NW) the less confidence i'll have in the GFS and adjust my split accordingly.

I want a Euro coup--but it should be the other way around with this pattern (see bold).

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The longer the GFS holds its ground, the greater the feeling of foreboding. In Vegas they say never bet against a streak because a streak only ends once. The streak this winter has been suppression, clippers and storms blowing up on the coast. While my heart wants to see the Euro verify, my head says not to go against the streak. Plus, it’s never a good sign when JI posts something relevant in your thread.

This.

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JB's thoughts, (think of it like posting 192 hr nogaps....entertainment),

"I like the major storm, perhaps cutting far enough west for a warmup on the coast and the stronger shot of cold down the plains. Its torture, and that is the only world I can use to describe it,"

He says it's torture because he believes the gfs is out to lunch

maybe someone should post that in ji's midatlantic thread :devilsmiley:

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I want a Euro coup--but it should be the other way around with this pattern (see bold).

meh, I'm already favoring a track that would lean pretty heavily on the GFS. As someone who doesn't have the background to truely understand the big picture pattern stuff and why or why not this scenario might be diffirent, my calls will probably come down to a which one blinks first.

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meh, I'm already favoring a track that would lean pretty heavily on the GFS. As someone who doesn't have the background to truely understand the big picture pattern stuff and why or why not this scenario might be diffirent, my calls will probably come down to a which one blinks first.

Unfortunately we are relying on a very LOW probability phase for all the goodness to occur. It shows how amazing the atmosphere is--and such a small detail can result in a huge forecast discrepancy.

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