Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow does everyone here pay for the Euro? Seems like I am one of the few with free access only. I don't pay for it....yet. Have been meaning to ask Joe or someone how much it costs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 OMA .57 GFK .18 MSP .61 LSE 1.25 JLN .49 PAH .33 STL .26 PIA .69 DVN 1.26 ORD .77 MKE 1.14 GRR .67 DTW .53 IND .43 LAF .36 DAY .64 CMH .66 YYZ .59 CLE .58 CVG .62 LEX .57 MKC .58 DSM .79 PIT .38 EVV .47 CPS .24 LOU .60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Strong arctic high, strong southern stream impulse. Sounds like major storm potential to me. I guess we will see. Potential means little when the detail is a phasing wave and the probability that wave has of phasing (somewhat low right now). We have to be going on storm threat 5 now that has a TON of potential with the none of the previous phasing as required. That disco someone posted earlier said it well regarding the lack of phasing this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 not if we have mixing issues haha We do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I don't pay for it....yet. Have been meaning to ask Joe or someone how much it costs. Depends on whether you want Accu Pro or SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 OMA .57 GFK .18 MSP .61 LSE 1.25 JLN .49 PAH .33 STL .26 PIA .69 DVN 1.26 ORD .77 MKE 1.14 GRR .67 DTW .53 IND .43 LAF .36 DAY .64 CMH .66 YYZ .59 CLE .58 CVG .62 LEX .57 MKC .58 DSM .79 PIT .38 EVV .47 CPS .24 LOU .60 Thanks for posting this dilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thanks for posting this dilly. No problem. I made a list of cities earlier. So if anyone wants a city added to the list just let me know, and Ill add it for future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thanks Dilly. Appreciate it. Hopefully the euro is onto something. I don't know how well it has done latley, but I do remember it nailing the first storm in December (most models were way, way south, euro had like 6-7 straight runs of taking the low to Chicago etc) Who knows, at least it is something to track. Gotta finish some homework, then off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Depends on whether you want Accu Pro or SV. what are the differences? and how much of that .77" is snow for ORD? not that it matters this far out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thanks Dilly. Appreciate it. Hopefully the euro is onto something. I don't know how well it has done latley, but I do remember it nailing the first storm in December (most models were way, way south, euro had like 6-7 straight runs of taking the low to Chicago etc) Who knows, at least it is something to track. Gotta finish some homework, then off to bed. I usually get nervous when the Euro is the one that is north. Tough pattern though and we're still a long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 .43 for LNK , although it over-estimated last storm here, but way under estimated for western parts of omaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 what are the differences? and how much of that .77" is snow for ORD? not that it matters this far out lol With SV you get the ECMWF/GFS/NAM, ect. With accu Pro you get all of the models along with raw output, skew t's, ect. About 0.31" is snow. The rest is mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 SV no longer has gold, i asked a while back i currently have SV and accupro (trial) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Unfortunately the 500 mb and other maps don't seem to be working. Guess I'll have to wait until later. Not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It is Euro Vs. GFS as the 6Z GFS holds serve and continues with a strong Pacific ridge with no phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Here are the Euro ensembles for last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Here are the Euro ensembles for last night Thanks Ji... Getting restless waiting for your snow-bomb tonite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Here are the Euro ensembles for last night lol, I'm going to have to side with the Ji camp. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I usually get nervous when the Euro is the one that is north. Tough pattern though and we're still a long way out. Actually at this range its tended to be too far nw. This range out from the current storm on the euro i was getting "congrats buckeye". it is interesting we have the euro cutting, the ggem as a coastal, and the gfs as suppressed. oh, and the ukie at 144 looked like some sort of compromise with a possible overrunning. need to remember this as a marking point to see which model did better at 168 when verification rolls around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lol, I'm going to have to side with the Ji camp. Sorry. lol me too...although that could very well scoot right off the n. mid atlantic coast. Definitely makes the op look very questionable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lol, I'm going to have to side with the Ji camp. Sorry. The longer the GFS holds its ground, the greater the feeling of foreboding. In Vegas they say never bet against a streak because a streak only ends once. The streak this winter has been suppression, clippers and storms blowing up on the coast. While my heart wants to see the Euro verify, my head says not to go against the streak. Plus, it’s never a good sign when JI posts something relevant in your thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The longer the GFS holds its ground, the greater the feeling of foreboding. In Vegas they say never bet against a streak because a streak only ends once. The streak this winter has been suppression, clippers and storms blowing up on the coast. While my heart wants to see the Euro verify, my head says not to go against the streak. Plus, it’s never a good sign when JI posts something relevant in your thread. The streak this winter has also been for the OP Euro to never find a coastal it didn't like and to be the king of models. The ensembles being southeast of the OP is no surprise. The sensible weather differences for this area are about as huge as you can get between the GFS and Euro. I'll split the difference and favor something similar to the last few events with an unphased event along a pos/neutral trough pushing through the lower OH Valley and coastal. All that said, the longer the Euro holds serve (or continues moving NW) the less confidence i'll have in the GFS and adjust my split accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The streak this winter has also been for the OP Euro to never find a coastal it didn't like and to be the king of models. The ensembles being southeast of the OP is no surprise. The sensible weather differences for this area are about as huge as you can get between the GFS and Euro. I'll split the difference and favor something similar to the last few events with an unphased event along a pos/neutral trough pushing through the lower OH Valley and coastal. All that said, the longer the Euro holds serve (or continues moving NW) the less confidence i'll have in the GFS and adjust my split accordingly. bolded: also very true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The streak this winter has also been for the OP Euro to never find a coastal it didn't like and to be the king of models. The ensembles being southeast of the OP is no surprise. The sensible weather differences for this area are about as huge as you can get between the GFS and Euro. I'll split the difference and favor something similar to the last few events with an unphased event along a pos/neutral trough pushing through the lower OH Valley and coastal. All that said, the longer the Euro holds serve (or continues moving NW) the less confidence i'll have in the GFS and adjust my split accordingly. I want a Euro coup--but it should be the other way around with this pattern (see bold). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The longer the GFS holds its ground, the greater the feeling of foreboding. In Vegas they say never bet against a streak because a streak only ends once. The streak this winter has been suppression, clippers and storms blowing up on the coast. While my heart wants to see the Euro verify, my head says not to go against the streak. Plus, it’s never a good sign when JI posts something relevant in your thread. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 JB's thoughts, (think of it like posting 192 hr nogaps....entertainment), "I like the major storm, perhaps cutting far enough west for a warmup on the coast and the stronger shot of cold down the plains. Its torture, and that is the only world I can use to describe it," He says it's torture because he believes the gfs is out to lunch maybe someone should post that in ji's midatlantic thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I want a Euro coup--but it should be the other way around with this pattern (see bold). meh, I'm already favoring a track that would lean pretty heavily on the GFS. As someone who doesn't have the background to truely understand the big picture pattern stuff and why or why not this scenario might be diffirent, my calls will probably come down to a which one blinks first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 meh, I'm already favoring a track that would lean pretty heavily on the GFS. As someone who doesn't have the background to truely understand the big picture pattern stuff and why or why not this scenario might be diffirent, my calls will probably come down to a which one blinks first. Unfortunately we are relying on a very LOW probability phase for all the goodness to occur. It shows how amazing the atmosphere is--and such a small detail can result in a huge forecast discrepancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Unfortunately we are relying on a very LOW probability phase for all the goodness to occur. It shows how amazing the atmosphere is--and such a small detail can result in a huge forecast discrepancy. I guess that would explain the wide discrepancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GGEM, I know I know, but here's the 0z GGEM ensembles from e-Wall. A few players out on the field in some form or other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.