Harry Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yeah GFS is clueless when it doesn't give you what you want? Too bad it may very well be right through the medium range at least. Whatever models thats doesn't give anyone what they want is always clueless. You know how that works. But seriously.. You saw no problem with how the GFS progresses things? Come on now. A clipper out of nowhere that brings in the Artic dump suppressing things. A pacific system arriving in the PAC NW just fading? Again i am not arguing the pattern it shows but more of a matter of how we get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GGEM giving the GFS love. Now that is more like it. That is how i could see things ending up suppressed. Thus as the GGEM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I smacked the GFS, I will smack the GGEM. Not logical, but that is from a model that had little northern stream interaction at 12z, though it has the truncation excuse after 120hrs. GFS i'll give you but the GGEM i could see playing out. A decent clipper i could see pulling in the Artic air and suppressing like that. Not saying it happens either but if it were to happen that would be one of the better ways to make it happen. Why as said a few dys back that i would rather this big clipper do it's deed where that euro run had it over MI and then heading off nne/ne in a weakening state and not for the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GGEM giving the GFS love. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO- Not surprised tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 WHo thinks the EURO will fallow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GGEM was great for the clipper; the better and further south the clipper, the more worse the set-up following it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GGEM was great for the clipper; the better and further south the clipper, the more worse the set-up following it seems. Pretty much because it allows more artic air to dump in and gives it more time to redevelop in the Atlantic which in turn tends to block things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Now that is more like it. That is how i could see things ending up suppressed. Thus as the GGEM shows. Agree...at least the GGEM runs a storm up the coast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 models are going to waffle for the next few days atleast lol. the 12z GEM and euro runs were nice hits here. not too worried over one run of the GEM, but hope the GFS catches onto the euro. will be interesting to what the 0z run of the euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 UKMET is interesting at 144 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Agree...at least the GGEM runs a storm up the coast lol It sucks badly for us but makes better sense atleast vs how the GFS tries to do it. And yeah i'll take losing the clipper if it means getting a more favorable pattern. I am done and over with the suppressed crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Agree...at least the GGEM runs a storm up the coast lol word filter?? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 UKMET is interesting at 144 hours ...link? I don't know have a quicker-updated site. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 ...link? I don't know have a quicker-updated site. Thanks. here's the surface map at 144 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 here's the surface map at 144 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/ Looks a little suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 here's the surface map at 144 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/ looks like a major overrunning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 looks like a major overrunning event Unfortunately the 500 mb and other maps don't seem to be working. Guess I'll have to wait until later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 if the gfs was a subscription model like the euro, i'd swear you were a gfs salesman i guess we'll know if the gfs had a clue by early next week if we are under a crushing arctic high that was ushered in with no fanfare. No I just wish the silly GFS accusations would stop and we could get some semi-decent weather discussion going on here. If Angrysummons wants to toss out why the GFS is so awful or provide more details--I am all ears. I would love for the GFS not to verify since it would mean an end to the blah weather--but even my pessimism is tinged with a bit of realism. As for me and the GFS--it has plenty of bad days as well and even awful patterns for long periods of time. I also think it gets bashed more than it perhaps deserves as a global model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Whatever models thats doesn't give anyone what they want is always clueless. You know how that works. But seriously.. You saw no problem with how the GFS progresses things? Come on now. A clipper out of nowhere that brings in the Artic dump suppressing things. A pacific system arriving in the PAC NW just fading? Again i am not arguing the pattern it shows but more of a matter of how we get there. Well regarding the weakening of the Pacific occlusions--that doesn't surprise me as that has been a verifiable trend as these baroclinic waves bomb out off the coast south of Alaska and occlude then ride over the Pacific ridge in general shambles. The GFS has dealt with that better than the CMC/ECM which has wanted to drive waves right through it. In that regard--I think the GFS is doing well. I am not riding the GFS or anything, but it is hard to ignore that it has performed better with the strength of the Pacific Ridge and a general weakening of waves that try to pass over it/through it. It seems the CMC has caved and shows a weaker western wave passing into the CONUS. An eventual phase is therefore weak--and it will potentially trend weaker unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 No I just wish the silly GFS accusations would stop and we could get some semi-decent weather discussion going on here. If Angrysummons wants to toss out why the GFS is so awful or provide more details--I am all ears. I would love for the GFS not to verify since it would mean an end to the blah weather--but even my pessimism is tinged with a bit of realism. As for me and the GFS--it has plenty of bad days as well and even awful patterns for long periods of time. I also think it gets bashed more than it perhaps deserves as a global model. I will say I understand where he is coming from. I say "that sucks" or "this run stinks" all the time--but the disdain is generally against the weather gods not smiling down on us (yes, a joke)--not the model itself. That said--Angrysummons can say whatever he likes--it would just be nice if there was some reasoning for claiming the model is unrealistic so others know where he is coming from. There certainly are times the guidance looks "out-to-lunch", but typically I try and provide details as to why. If we do this, not only do we liven up the discussion, but we provide verifiable evidence should a model verify and/or not verify so such details may possibly be applied for future reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The thing I dont understand is the second clipper isn't that impressive and the deepest any model has had it it 996 up into canada and its 1004-1001 as it tracks east towards the east coast. It doesn't really strengthen on the Gfs at all and the GGEM strenghtens it well NE up into canada, and yet the GGEM has more of a storm than the GFS. I find it hard to believe that this will suppress a larger storm that could come next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Based on the Euro at 96 it looks like it still may have a storm since it plows a decent wave through the ridge and looks like it will phase it with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Based on the Euro at 96 it looks like it still may have a storm since it plows a decent wave through the ridge and looks like it will phase it with the northern stream. Was just gonna post...this looks like it will be a successful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yeah the Euro is trying to cook up something through 120 hours. Looks pretty similar to earlier runs although it may be more suppressed in the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HR 132 has a 1008 low in N. Texas. LT-MOD precip in S. MN/N. IA, LT precip in WI, IA, KS, MO etc. Looks pretty similar to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HR 132 has a 1008 low in N. Texas. LT-MOD precip in S. MN/N. IA, LT precip in WI, IA, KS, MO etc. Looks pretty similar to 12z. Shifted NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HR 138 is a nice hit for IA, MN. HR 144 has a 1008 LOW in the ARK/OK/TX area with MOD-HVY precip in IA, LT-MOd precip in MN/WI/NW IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 she's coming in hot.. Nice Iowa and MN hit early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 850 mb 0C is a tad north of LAF at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 1004mb SLP over Quincy at 150hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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