Harry Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 nice post Harry i think the indices look great and have been not too bad for some time now..... definitelty my biggest concern is that one of these clippers develops into some form of a block, even a transient one just cant get out of that rut, maybe this time... See my last post. I understand where you are coming from though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thing is NO pattern lasts forever and just about every winter sees a break down too. Reasons why areas se of here got shafted hard till late Jan 08 but then made out like bandits there after into March. Reasons why we had the Dec plains bombs that vanished by Feb. Reasons why 06-07 had the epic torch till late jan and then went the other way. Again no pattern lasts forever and what we have had IS and WILL break. i know dude, def agree......i personally think the pattern broke down some time ago, once we started to get these clippers up here i knew something had changed....but the EC has continued to get lucky with these thread the needle bigger events....not sure if its residual effects or what, but somethings gotta give sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thing is NO pattern lasts forever and just about every winter sees a break down too. Reasons why areas se of here got shafted hard till late Jan 08 but then made out like bandits there after into March. Reasons why we had the Dec plains bombs that vanished by Feb. Reasons why 06-07 had the epic torch till late jan and then went the other way. Again no pattern lasts forever and what we have had IS and WILL break. Couldn't have said it better. We've been in this predominately -AO/-NAO regime for awhile it seems. A quick check of the major indices indicate a relaxation of both. Not saying it will bear fruit for all, but the potential to me is out there. We'll see though...nothing is ever easy with weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thing is NO pattern lasts forever and just about every winter sees a break down too. Reasons why areas se of here got shafted hard till late Jan 08 but then made out like bandits there after into March. Reasons why we had the Dec plains bombs that vanished by Feb last winter. Reasons why 06-07 had the epic torch till late Jan and then went the other way. Again no pattern lasts forever and what we have had IS and WILL break. Well I think there is a threat too--but I think it may come a lot later (perhaps a day or three) than the Euro/CMC have it. The teleconnection patterns only get us to the point of having the right players on the field--the amount of waves the Euro projects passing through the Pacific ridge and into the CONUS is astounding. The last week or so the Euro has been less bullish with the Pacific +PNA ridge based off its 8-10 day height field plots wrt the GFS ensembles. It has been more willing to break it down and/or flatten it with a Pacific wave--but the trend has been these waves undergo rapid cyclogenesis in the Pacific then occlude and weaken as they traverse the ridge. GFS has been better with that aspect--and it is doing the same through 180 hours. Euro and CMC try to plow some decently energetic waves through it--and for that reason--even with favorable teleconnections--the GFS seems the way to go only because it is performing better out W thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 FWIW 18z Nocraps has the storm. Kind of a coastal hugger/inland runner. Myself and the OH folks get at least a moderate snowfall out of it. But definitely more development to the storm than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i know dude, def agree......i personally think the pattern broke down some time ago, once we started to get these clippers up here i knew something had changed....but the EC has continued to get lucky with these thread the needle bigger events....not sure if its residual effects or what, but somethings gotta give sooner or later. This I agree with--the dominant pattern through December broke down quite a while ago. The trends through this latest +PNA ridge pattern has been for weak cyclones to pass through and enter into the CONUS before phasing again out east. Phasing near the west coast will be difficult if the current trends persist. Mother of all clippers was a potential phase threat--and that continued the pattern of a weak to no phase. I see no reason for the strong Pacific Ridge to give in the way the Euro has constantly been trying to when there is another model (The GFS) which has performed better in that respect and continues to show a dominant ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 FWIW 18z Nocraps has the storm. Kind of a coastal hugger/inland runner. Myself and the OH folks get at least a moderate snowfall out of it. But definitely more development to the storm than the GFS. Hardcore dude. I'm not even sure where to find the 18z nocraps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hardcore dude. I'm not even sure where to find the 18z nocraps. I don't think you want to know. Everytime I try and access that site I get a warning message from my computer advising me not to proceed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't think you want to know. Everytime I try and access that site I get a warning message from my computer advising me not to proceed. Good stuff, what I don't know won't hurt me (or my computer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This I agree with--the dominant pattern through December broke down quite a while ago. The trends through this latest +PNA ridge pattern has been for weak cyclones to pass through and enter into the CONUS before phasing again out east. Phasing near the west coast will be difficult if the current trends persist. Mother of all clippers was a potential phase threat--and that continued the pattern of a weak to no phase. I see no reason for the strong Pacific Ridge to give in the way the Euro has constantly been trying to when there is another model (The GFS) which has performed better in that respect and continues to show a dominant ridge. The steeper the ridge the less likley energy can stay together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Good stuff, what I don't know won't hurt me (or my computer). It has a primary low into eastern KY/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't think you want to know. Everytime I try and access that site I get a warning message from my computer advising me not to proceed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't think you want to know. Everytime I try and access that site I get a warning message from my computer advising me not to proceed. Navy site FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It has a primary low into eastern KY/OH. Thanks, but my post was more about the actual site where Mike gets the nogaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The steeper the ridge the less likley energy can stay together? Sooner or later it will break down for various reasons--and even the GFS breaks it down a bit. But yeah--a highly amplified Pacific ridge results in rapid cyclogenesis and then occlusion of the Pacific waves. By the time they traverse the ridge they are weak and not apt to develop into a strong wave on the eastern side of the ridge. I think a threat is real--but I think the threat may come 2+ days later than the ECM/CMC suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sooner or later it will break down for various reasons--and even the GFS breaks it down a bit. But yeah--a highly amplified Pacific ridge results in rapid cyclogenesis and then occlusion of the Pacific waves. By the time they traverse the ridge they are weak and not apt to develop into a strong wave on the eastern side of the ridge. I think a threat is real--but I think the threat may come 2+ days later than the ECM/CMC suggest. Thanks. Makes sense and shows that we have seen. Until they reach the atlantic of course. Going to get outta here on this. The more positive the PNa is the steeper the ridge is? Or does the PNA display how far east or west the ridge is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This I agree with--the dominant pattern through December broke down quite a while ago. The trends through this latest +PNA ridge pattern has been for weak cyclones to pass through and enter into the CONUS before phasing again out east. Phasing near the west coast will be difficult if the current trends persist. Mother of all clippers was a potential phase threat--and that continued the pattern of a weak to no phase. I see no reason for the strong Pacific Ridge to give in the way the Euro has constantly been trying to when there is another model (The GFS) which has performed better in that respect and continues to show a dominant ridge. thanks for explaining why we still arent seeing much action despite the pattern change a while back really appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hopefully the Euro will verify and give most of us something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hopefully the Euro will verify and give most of us something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 looks like a pretty wide spread in there but pretty cold. EDIT: lol at DTX for almost busting out the seasonal trends FTL. Same with IWX: EITHER SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT THIS SEASON HAS SEEN LITTLE PHASING IN OUR AREA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED FOR A CAUTIOUS CLOUDY FORECAST WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS NEXT FEW DAYS. ECMWF WOULD FAVOR A SIGNFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Same with IWX: EITHER SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT THIS SEASON HAS SEEN LITTLE PHASING IN OUR AREA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED FOR A CAUTIOUS CLOUDY FORECAST WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS NEXT FEW DAYS. ECMWF WOULD FAVOR A SIGNFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. lulz, it's contagious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Same with IWX: EITHER SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT THIS SEASON HAS SEEN LITTLE PHASING IN OUR AREA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED FOR A CAUTIOUS CLOUDY FORECAST WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS NEXT FEW DAYS. ECMWF WOULD FAVOR A SIGNFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. You know what will happen....after I move in a couple of weeks or so this area will get nailed non-stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I don't think you want to know. Everytime I try and access that site I get a warning message from my computer advising me not to proceed. (insert suspicious foreigner joke here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You know what will happen....after I move in a couple of weeks or so this area will get nailed non-stop. I feel like that happened when i went to college, both ways, Chicago had epic weather, i graduate and valentines blizzard shuts down the CU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You know what will happen....after I move in a couple of weeks or so this area will get nailed non-stop. Patrick is the weather shield--once he moves to Alaska a huge ridge will build over the Aleutians and the gravy train will develop over the northern plains and Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I don't think you want to know. Everytime I try and access that site I get a warning message from my computer advising me not to proceed. yea me too, first time i thought i accidentally clicked one of my on a porn link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 (insert suspicious foreigner joke here) Navy site probably picks up on my non US IP address and then releases some sort of defense mechanism to prevent hacking. Canada/China. Close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Patrick is the weather shield--once he moves to Alaska a huge ridge will build over the Aleutians and the gravy train will develop over the northern plains and Great Lakes. Count on it....then while I am enjoying a balmy 55 during the summer the eastern Iowa to western Ohio corridor plus or minus 200 miles will get rocked with EF-4's or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Count on it....then while I am enjoying a balmy 55 during the summer the eastern Iowa to western Ohio corridor plus or minus 200 miles will get rocked with EF-4's or better. Hot damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Count on it....then while I am enjoying a balmy 55 during the summer the eastern Iowa to western Ohio corridor plus or minus 200 miles will get rocked with EF-3's or better. It will be like 2012 a year earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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