toronto blizzard Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The GFS is worthless right now. Completely lost. Trough axis makes no sense. GFS is vastly better in the fall than the winter. It has the storm but just a few days later, otherwise gotta like potential but I don't want to jinx it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I never use NCEP website since the graphics stink--but I just did a comparison--and the NCEP experimental site has it out past 180+ hours and NCEP's regular site is still way back in the 120s. That always surprised me how the downstream providers get the data before it is out on NCEPs own site. Already out to 270s on SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ouch.. 300hrs has a cutter right up Lake Michigan/N.WI. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It has the storm but just a few days later, otherwise gotta like potential but I don't want to jinx it. I see a couple of interesting s/ws at 192 over the rockies, but I'm not sure you can label that as the same storm we're discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ouch.. 300hrs has a cutter right up Lake Michigan/N.WI. lol Scratch that. It is a clipper of sorts that basically explodes over N.WI/N.MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I see a couple of interesting s/ws at 192 over the rockies, but I'm not sure you can label that as the same storm we're discussing. Could be the system just afew days late Typical Gfs crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If one wanted a decent storm, this window we're discusing now be would best. You couldn't ask for a better position of that PV up in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Unfortunately the Euro was probably dipping in to my DIPA's again at lunch and by 0z it will be back to its senses and I'll be left with a memory of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Could be the system just afew days late Typical Gfs crap Let's see what the 18z ensembles have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Let's see what the 18z ensembles have to say. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Unfortunately the Euro was probably dipping in to my DIPA's again at lunch and by 0z it will be back to its senses and I'll be left with a memory of 12z GFS gets crap all the time-- but all the models have definitely had fits with this pattern including the Euro. The Euro busted this clipper much harder than the GFS. That said--no model suite is to be trusted right now. For the reasons I alluded to earlier though--I have a feeling the GFS has a much better idea than the Euro and CMC at this juncture. The only model that looks like the GFS is the UKMET and it isn't even that bad. I don't get these types of patterns and the GFS, it just simply goes nuts on the west coast. No way do I go against the Euro on this one. I bet it would have suppressed the Cleveland Superbomb while the Euro was showing a 970mb bomb over Erie at this range lol. Your posts are worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That always surprised me how the downstream providers get the data before it is out on NCEPs own site. Already out to 270s on SV. The experimental site seems better. Not sure why the regular NCEP site is so slow and buggy. The SREFS come out much faster on the experimental site than the NCEP site too--more so than the difference between the operational runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Your posts are worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS gets crap all the time-- but all the models have definitely had fits with this pattern including the Euro. The Euro busted this clipper much harder than the GFS. That said--no model suite is to be trusted right now. For the reasons I alluded to earlier though--I have a feeling the GFS has a much better idea than the Euro and CMC at this juncture. Your posts are worthless. Well the clipper has not passed through yet. As for Angry.. I think he should change his nic to AngryGFS.. BTW. What would your reasoning be? Talking about why you think the GFS has a better idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thats the reason why no storm on the 18z GFS No PHASING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks. I hate to say but these kind of tracks have NW trend written all over them. Hopefully theres some sort of high or block to prevent this thing from cutting too much. If the clipper is stronger I think thats better because it would prevent a western GLC and allow for room to breathe with a track through the ohio valley. I dont think the clipper, even if its respectable strenghth wise, will supress this storm. I would rather the system trended northwest, even if it meant it hit Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin the hardest. They have had tough luck in recent winters (Minnesota anyways), and it's disappointing when more southern climes get more snow than us, yet we get the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well the clipper has not passed through yet. As for Angry.. I think he should change his nic to AngryGFS.. BTW. What would your reasoning be? Talking about why you think the GFS has a better idea? Yeah it hasn't happened yet (the clipper)--but the order of magnitude difference in strength won't pan out. It still has some surprise potential--but definitely won't be the mother of all clippers. As for my thinking--which is by no means a scientifically rigorous thinking--I posted this earlier. All we can do now go is go off latest trends and throw in some thoughts. "For now--I have to lean against the Euro and CMC mainly because of the aggression that guidance has shown as of late regarding waves plowing through the rather high amplitude Pacific ridge then phasing with the northern stream on the other side. GFS has been less aggressive--and it has panned out thus far. I think a threat is there--but perhaps it may come a tad later than the CMC-Euro show. That has also been a trend as of late--for these storms to come in much slower--and that includes the EC events. This ongoing event on the EC is just another example of things materializing much slower than guidance initially suggested. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I would rather the system trended northwest, even if it meant it hit Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin the hardest. They have had tough luck in recent winters (Minnesota anyways), and it's disappointing when more southern climes get more snow than us, yet we get the cold. Those areas have already seen 50-60 inches. Sounds like tough luck to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Those areas have already seen 50-60 inches. Sounds like tough luck to me I just meant past years; obviously this year they've hit the jackpot. I was reading through an old weather forum, and a poster from Mankato was talking last year about how they hadn't encountered an event over 5 inches for 2 years. Therefore, I'd still rather it miss nw than se at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Those areas have already seen 50-60 inches. Sounds like tough luck to me This year some area have had that. Not everywhere. Portions of the arrowhead are still in moderate drought. We miss a lot more storms than people think up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This year some area have had that. Not everywhere. Portions of the arrowhead are still in moderate drought. We miss a lot more storms than people think up here. Too cold to snow up there and thus suppression. Iowa seems to have hit the jackpot the last 10 years. They are right in the baroclinic zone most of the time. As far as this storm is concerned been burned too many times 6-7 days out. If the euro is still showing it after the clipper on sat-sun, it will boost my optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This year some area have had that. Not everywhere. Portions of the arrowhead are still in moderate drought. We miss a lot more storms than people think up here. It'd be awesome if somebody came up with an objective snowfall drought index. Like the palmer index but for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18z GFS isn't going to budge. That early November non-event where the GGEM/EURO for several runs where trying to emulate Nov 1950 still leaves a bad taste in my mouth. I'm not sure the GFS is that far in left field. if the GFS is not on board, i'm not on board simple as that for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well the clipper has not passed through yet. As for Angry.. I think he should change his nic to AngryGFS.. BTW. What would your reasoning be? Talking about why you think the GFS has a better idea? PERFECT!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 if the GFS is not on board, i'm not on board simple as that for me. I am back into pessimistic mode. Even perfect agreement and global ensemble agreement outside of 120 means nothing in this Pacific driven pattern. It is the nature of variability at work here. I can go off trends this year--and the arctic air DOES not want to spill into the CONUS. How many threats have we had where there was potential for a phase and then an arctic dump that never panned out? It has to be going on 15 tries and only 1 or 2 verifications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I am back into pessimistic mode. Even perfect agreement and global ensemble agreement outside of 120 means nothing in this Pacific driven pattern. It is the nature of variability at work here. I can go off trends this year--and the arctic air DOES not want to spill into the CONUS. How many threats have we had where there was potential for a phase and then an arctic dump that never panned out? It has to be going on 15 tries and only 1 or 2 verifications. absolutely agree very difficult to be optimistic, unless you live in SNE/ENE or around nyc this year. no way i can be optimistic, at this time. unless all the models are showing a hit within 72 hours. thats what 2+ years of having your confidence beaten down does, i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah it hasn't happened yet (the clipper)--but the order of magnitude difference in strength won't pan out. It still has some surprise potential--but definitely won't be the mother of all clippers. As for my thinking--which is by no means a scientifically rigorous thinking--I posted this earlier. All we can do now go is go off latest trends and throw in some thoughts. "For now--I have to lean against the Euro and CMC mainly because of the aggression that guidance has shown as of late regarding waves plowing through the rather high amplitude Pacific ridge then phasing with the northern stream on the other side. GFS has been less aggressive--and it has panned out thus far. I think a threat is there--but perhaps it may come a tad later than the CMC-Euro show. That has also been a trend as of late--for these storms to come in much slower--and that includes the EC events. This ongoing event on the EC is just another example of things materializing much slower than guidance initially suggested. " Biggest surprise with me is the euro showing what it does. Thus the red flag because really the euro has had no threats in these parts since early December. That alone tells me something is up. My issue with the GFS is it pops a +NAO at about the time this system should be rolling through yet the model has no such storm and a ton of cold/suppressed look. Something there does not add up. One or the other is wrong. All the guidance does build a decent -EPO ridge in the Pacific which does say that systems should be rolling down ( south/sse ) the Pacific coast/Westcoast into the SW/TX. Usually when you have that you get a little ridging further east. Thus whatever comes out of that direction should not be as suppressed as we have seen up to this point. This ofcourse is all based on modeling too. Anyways.. At this point i like your idea of wait and see but i do think it is a legit threat. Whether it happens or not is to be seen because as you have mentioned if the models are off with one of these waves it can change the whole picture as we have seen this winter. What i would watch is the NAO/AO/EPO trends over the next several days and as well what happens to the clippers. Do they help form the next block or do they open the door for this threat to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Local detroit ABC affiliate just said there could be something really big next monday-tuesday in the ohio valley. Granted they are looking at what we are but yea....1-2 thursday...2-4 sat-sun . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 nice post Harry i think the indices look great and have been not too bad for some time now..... definitelty my biggest concern is that one of these clippers develops into some form of a block, even a transient one just cant get out of that rut, maybe this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 absolutely agree very difficult to be optimistic, unless you live in SNE/ENE or around nyc this year. no way i can be optimistic, at this time. unless all the models are showing a hit within 72 hours. thats what 2+ years of having your confidence beaten down does, i suppose. Thing is NO pattern lasts forever and just about every winter sees a break down too. Reasons why areas se of here got shafted hard till late Jan 08 but then made out like bandits there after into March. Reasons why we had the Dec plains bombs that vanished by Feb last winter. Reasons why 06-07 had the epic torch till late Jan and then went the other way. Again no pattern lasts forever and what we have had IS and WILL break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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