Hoosier Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just got home and its good to see a legit storm to track in the future. After looking at hour 144 on the euro, I was assuming a track from texas to chicago would make sense because the storm hadn't intensified yet. But I would assume the high in montana played a role. How did the ensembles look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DTX THEN, AFTER ANOTHERSHALLOW INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR SUNDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE BREWING TO START NEXT WEEK. AS GOOD AS MODEL AGREEMENT IS TO START THE WEEKEND, THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF COULD NOT BE MORE DIFFERENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE LATTER OFFERING A HEADLINE WORTHY WINTER STORM. THE DIFFERENCES ARE ROOTED IN THE POSITION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS SHARPER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE IN THE ECMWF COMPARED TO THE GFS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT RECENT HISTORY OF ATLANTIC COAST STORMS FAVORS THE GFS AND MORE ARCTIC AIR FOR OUR AREA. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 looks like a pretty wide spread in there but pretty cold. EDIT: lol at DTX for almost busting out the seasonal trends FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 For now--I have to lean against the Euro and CMC mainly because of the aggression that guidance has shown as of late regarding waves plowing through the rather high amplitude Pacific ridge then phasing with the northern stream on the other side. GFS has been less aggressive--and it has panned out thus far. I think a threat is there--but perhaps it may come a tad later than the CMC-Euro show. That has also been a trend as of late--for these storms to come in much slower--and that includes the EC events. This ongoing event on the EC is just another example of things materializing much slower than guidance initially suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks. I hate to say but these kind of tracks have NW trend written all over them. Hopefully theres some sort of high or block to prevent this thing from cutting too much. If the clipper is stronger I think thats better because it would prevent a western GLC and allow for room to breathe with a track through the ohio valley. I dont think the clipper, even if its respectable strenghth wise, will supress this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 For now--I have to lean against the Euro and CMC mainly because of the aggression that guidance has shown as of late regarding waves plowing through the rather high amplitude Pacific ridge then phasing with the northern stream on the other side. GFS has been less aggressive--and it has panned out thus far. I think a threat is there--but perhaps it may come a tad later than the CMC-Euro show. That has also been a trend as of late--for these storms to come in much slower--and that includes the EC events. This ongoing event on the EC is just another example of things materializing much slower than guidance initially suggested. This makes a lot of sense; I just really want to avoid a super suppressed gulf creeper track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This makes a lot of sense; I just really want to avoid a super suppressed gulf creeper track. The GFS ensembles pretty much bring in a similar storm threat in the medium range (200+ hours out) that the EC/CMC have around 160 hours out. I think the threat is real--folks may just have to wait a tad more based on the seasonal as well as weekly trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 To be fair, the 12z Euro sped things up a bit versus the 0z run. At 6z Wednesday 2/2...the 12z Euro has the storm exiting north of Maine, the 0z run at the same time had OH and E IN getting clobbered with a strung out low just southeast of there. Pretty huge difference really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 To be fair, the 12z Euro sped things up a bit versus the 0z run. At 6z Wednesday 2/2...the 12z Euro has the storm exiting north of Maine, the 0z run at the same time had OH and E IN getting clobbered with a strung out low just southeast of there. Pretty huge difference really. Personally I wouldn't even bother with the deterministic/operational runs at this point except to look at what the potential impact would be. Even the ensembles have to be looked at with a careful eye. If one believed the Euro ensemble 144 hours out this incoming clipper would be a beast. This Pacific driven pattern is challenging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just as a reminder of how poor even ensemble means can do--here is an example of what the Euro/Euro ensemble had with the clipper a while back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Personally I wouldn't even bother with the deterministic/operational runs at this point except to look at what the potential impact would be. Even the ensembles have to be looked at with a careful eye. If one believed the Euro ensemble 144 hours out this incoming clipper would be a beast. This Pacific driven pattern is challenging. I'm pretty sure no one's sweating the finer details right now...op runs or ensembles. And yes, at this point, seeing if there is an actual system to track is all that's really needed. As has been said before, long ways to go with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just as a reminder of how poor even ensemble means can do--here is an example of what the Euro/Euro ensemble had with the clipper a while back. IF the euro ensembles are to be believed they have only shifted it south by about 100 miles or so if that. The mean has it tracking just north of Green bay to near the Thumb to near Toronto. This is as of the 12z run. Still a number of them as well that really develop it taking it down to the low 990s/980s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 IF the euro ensembles are to be believed they have only shifted it south by about 100 miles or so if that. The mean has it tracking just north of Green bay to near the Thumb to near Toronto. This is as of the 12z run. Still a number of them as well that really develop it taking it down to the low 990s/980s. The amplitude is what I was referencing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The amplitude is what I was referencing... There is no comparison here to make. They don't compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 There is no comparison here to make. They don't compare. Do you have the GFS ensemble from a week out by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Do you have the GFS ensemble from a week out by any chance? I don't. Only reason I have that ECMWF chart is they have an archive that extends back. That ECMWF chart is actually not even that old--it was from Saturday. I was using it just to show how quickly things can change in these patterns. if I remember correctly--by Saturday--both the GFS and Euro were pretty similar with the clipper threat and ensuing arctic dump--but I think the Euro was even more gung-ho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm getting an error at the NCEP site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm getting an error at the NCEP site. It's been acting funny lately, I keep getting those errors as well. Not sure what's up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm getting an error at the NCEP site. It's been messed up for about a week. Even when I get through to a model, I'll refresh and it'll go backwards (i.e. 78 to 42 hours). Weenie overload? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's been messed up for about a week. Even when I get through to a model, I'll refresh and it'll go backwards (i.e. 78 to 42 hours). Weenie overload? I've noticed that too. Oh well, Plymouth is my backup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I've noticed that too. Oh well, Plymouth is my backup. I'm not even sure why I still use NCEP for the NAM, GFS, etc. There are certainly better options out there, but I guess old habits die hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18z GFS isn't going to budge. That early November non-event where the GGEM/EURO for several runs where trying to emulate Nov 1950 still leaves a bad taste in my mouth. I'm not sure the GFS is that far in left field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm not even sure why I still use NCEP for the NAM, GFS, etc. There are certainly better options out there, but I guess old habits die hard. Yeah, that Twisterdata site looks nifty but I don't really use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah, that Twisterdata site looks nifty but I don't really use it. NAM comes out faster on there. GFS is a lot slower once it hits 36 or so than the NCEP site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 18z GFS isn't going to budge. That early November non-event where the GGEM/EURO for several runs where trying to emulate Nov 1950 still leaves a bad taste in my mouth. I'm not sure the GFS is that far in left field. Storm just might be later on the GFS. Not sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ewall is better IMO. If you like NCEP--try the experimental page. Updates faster and comes in 3 hr increments. http://mag.ncep.noaa...B/appcontroller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ewall is better IMO. If you like NCEP--try the experimental page. Updates faster and comes in 3 hr incremnts. http://mag.ncep.noaa...B/appcontroller Go to "Model Guidance" then choose "North America". It has all the same plots but in 3 hr chunks and it updates faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM comes out faster on there. GFS is a lot slower once it hits 36 or so than the NCEP site. PSU takes a while to initialize with both models, maybe 15 minutes after NCEP does, but once it gets going PSU is at least 2-3 frames ahead of NCEP the rest of the way. Plus, unlike TD, you can loop the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Go to "Model Guidance" then choose "North America". It has all the same plots but in 3 hr chunks and it updates faster. I never use NCEP website since the graphics stink--but I just did a comparison--and the NCEP experimental site has it out past 180+ hours and NCEP's regular site is still way back in the 120s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18z GFS almost had it. It crapped up after 156hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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