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End of January/early February storm potential?


Hoosier

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certainly not at 150 hrs out, i'm sure it will happen if and when we had a real big one like they've seen out east.

TIMING/STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS EXIST. THEN BY DAY 7...THE

NEW ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PHASING OF

INDIVIDUAL STREAMS OVER THE CENTRAL CONSES...WHICH RESULTS IN A

SIGNIFICANT LOW EXITING THE PLAINS...THAT IF TRUE...WOULD RESULT

IN A CONSIDERABLE WARMING/MOISTENING TREND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI

RIVER. BUT WITH THE GFS/GEFS MEAN NOT PHASED AND THUS MORE

PROGRESSIVE...ALONG WITH TELECONNECTIONS WHICH FAVORS THEM...THE

CHOICE REMAINS TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE

MOMENT.

anyways HPC favoring the GFS and it's ensembles. :thumbsdown:

Key qualifier in the last sentence though. ;)

Eh, long ways to go with this one. At least there are a few bones being thrown our way on the GGEM and Euro right now...GFS be damned.

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certainly not at 150 hrs out, i'm sure it will happen if and when we had a real big one like they've seen out east.

anyways HPC favoring the GFS and it's ensembles. :thumbsdown:

That's how I like their position to be, especially since they have busted so much this winter.

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Of course because its rain out east.. Half Kidding but HPC is as useless as a turd in a punch bowl IMO for the MW especially this far out..

Hmmm, I really only check out their extendeds when there are possible big ones showing up on the Euro in the long range, so I'm not familiar with any bias they might exhibit. I thought a few of the HPC mets posted at Eastern, i could be off base though. Either way their reasoning for favoring the GFS wasn't all that great, but i'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now.

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Key qualifier in the last sentence though. ;)

Eh, long ways to go with this one. At least there are a few bones being thrown our way on the GGEM and Euro right now...GFS be damned.

Yeah when the Euro's on board, i'm excited so their thoughts don't change that, i just thought it was worth passing along. We still have to wait 30-40 hrs before this gets into the range when we can expect Baro to start posting :arrowhead:

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Going by Market size.

I would assume

MSP

Indy

Chicago

Detroit

STL

Cleveland

Would be the top 6.

KC would be in there if we went that far west.

then you have Lincoln, Lafayette, Des Moines, Peoria, Cincy, CBUS, Green Bay, Milwaukee, Peoria, Springfield, IL and MO. Quad Cities.

anyways, we cover a good 20-30 cities here.

If someone wants to make a list of places and do it that would be awesome.

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Yeah when the Euro's on board, i'm excited so their thoughts don't change that, i just thought it was worth passing along. We still have to wait 30-40 hrs before this gets into the range when we can expect Baro to start posting :arrowhead:

Teleconnections can be a good tool for general longer range patterns, but as far as using them to determine whether a storm will track over Columbus or Chattanooga, I'm not sure. I think there are storm-scale considerations that have as much if not more weight. Just my 2 cents though.

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Teleconnections can be a good tool for general longer range patterns, but as far as using them to determine whether a storm will track over Columbus or Chattanooga, I'm not sure. I think there are storm-scale considerations that have as much if not more weight. Just my 2 cents though.

strongly agree

the pattern has supported a decent storm for the past few weeks for the most part IMO.

which is why i will remain skeptical.

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Teleconnections can be a good tool for general longer range patterns, but as far as using them to determine whether a storm will track over Columbus or Chattanooga, I'm not sure. I think there are storm-scale considerations that have as much if not more weight. Just my 2 cents though.

Makes sense and a Columbus to Chattanooga spread would be great compared to the 1000 or so miles between the GFS and ECM/GGEM. It's going to be a pretty big score for the GFS if it ends up being right.

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strongly agree

the pattern has supported a decent storm for the past few weeks for the most part IMO.

which is why i will remain skeptical.

It's been better than it was but I think this timeframe is the best window. I'll be disappointed if nothing comes of it and embarrassed for starting the thread so far out, but a minor consideration was that I didn't know whether to discuss this in the January or February thread. :guitar:

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Just got home and its good to see a legit storm to track in the future. After looking at hour 144 on the euro, I was assuming a track from texas to chicago would make sense because the storm hadn't intensified yet. But I would assume the high in montana played a role. How did the ensembles look?

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