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End of January/early February storm potential?


Hoosier

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Not to bring "99" up again but from what I remember is that after the big storm it really got cold. I will have to look it up and see just how cold it really got around these parts.

Low temps at ORD following the 99 blizzard.

1/3: 5º

1/4: -9º

1/5: -16º

1/6: 2º

1/7: -7º

1/8: 9º

1/9: -4º

1/10: -2º

1/11: -3º

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Low temps at ORD following the 99 blizzard.

1/3: 5º

1/4: -9º

1/5: -16º

1/6: 2º

1/7: -7º

1/8: 9º

1/9: -4º

1/10: -2º

1/11: -3º

The length of the cold is what's impressive right there. A couple clippers came through and added to the snowpack during that period as well.

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We know the GFS pulls these shenanigans more often but this is the coldest Euro run I can remember in a while. To steal a word from baro, apocalyptic type cold being hinted at.

This helps my thoughts on whether there will be a decent system preceding it, cold air doesn't just ease down, it will be pulled down by a good system.

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The length of the cold is what's impressive right there. A couple clippers came through and added to the snowpack during that period as well.

7.3" more snow at ORD in the 10 days following the great one. 15 consecutive days with a snow depth of 10" or greater. Fun times.

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Okay well then you should be able to understand why people are a bit excited and want to know the info...

If we were inside 84 hrs maybe, inside 48 sure, but 150+, not really. This is a stupid argument anyways, if people like it, i'll ride with it and drop it. Hopefully if we ever get into "Storm Mode" on this subforum some of the how much for MBY comments will be tamed.

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If we were inside 84 hrs maybe, inside 48 sure, but 150+, not really. This is a stupid argument anyways, if people like it, i'll ride with it and drop it. Hopefully if we ever get into "Storm Mode" on this subforum some of the how much for MBY comments will be tamed.

I doubt we are worthy enough in the eyes of the brass to be put into storm mode :rolleyes:

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If we were inside 84 hrs maybe, inside 48 sure, but 150+, not really. This is a stupid argument anyways, if people like it, i'll ride with it and drop it. Hopefully if we ever get into "Storm Mode" on this subforum some of the how much for MBY comments will be tamed.

I'm not a big fan of the qpf that far out, but if it's going to be done, then I think we should come up with a comprehensive list of cities so it avoids 6 "how much for" questions.

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If we were inside 84 hrs maybe, inside 48 sure, but 150+, not really. This is a stupid argument anyways, if people like it, i'll ride with it and drop it. Hopefully if we ever get into "Storm Mode" on this subforum some of the how much for MBY comments will be tamed.

the only people ask is because unless we pay for the maps we can't see where the Euro drops the most precip....and unless someone has a better site I have messed with the Plymouth site looking to see all of the maps it has for the euro and it sucks. It would probably be more wise for a couple of poster to volunteer and post the euro qpf each run during storm watching time for say the top 10-15 population cities effected by the system. Then there will only be one post about it.

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I doubt we are worthy enough in the eyes of the brass to be put into storm mode :rolleyes:

certainly not at 150 hrs out, i'm sure it will happen if and when we had a real big one like they've seen out east.

anyways HPC favoring the GFS and it's ensembles. :thumbsdown:

12Z GUIDANCE OFFERS LITTLE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR THE SPECIFIC

DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS BEYOND WHAT WAS CONSIDERED THIS MORNING. BY DAY

4...TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ENTERING THE PACIFIC

NORTHWEST AND PROGRESSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES ARE AS MUCH AS 12

HRS...WITH THE NEW ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS IN THE NORTHWEST AND

GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE

UKMET/CANADIAN ONLY WIDEN THE SOLUTION SPREAD. THUS...CONTINUITY

HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITH THESE 2 SYSTEMS. DIFFERENCES OVER THE

CONUS THEN DIMINISH DAYS 5/6...DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE LARGE

SURFACE HIGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...

THIS IS NOT THE CASE OVER THE PACIFIC...WHERE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN

TIMING/STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS EXIST. THEN BY DAY 7...THE

NEW ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PHASING OF

INDIVIDUAL STREAMS OVER THE CENTRAL CONSES...WHICH RESULTS IN A

SIGNIFICANT LOW EXITING THE PLAINS...THAT IF TRUE...WOULD RESULT

IN A CONSIDERABLE WARMING/MOISTENING TREND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI

RIVER. BUT WITH THE GFS/GEFS MEAN NOT PHASED AND THUS MORE

PROGRESSIVE...ALONG WITH TELECONNECTIONS WHICH FAVORS THEM...THE

CHOICE REMAINS TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE

MOMENT.

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certainly not at 150 hrs out, i'm sure it will happen if and when we had a real big one like they've seen out east.

anyways HPC favoring the GFS and it's ensembles. :thumbsdown:

Of course because its rain out east.. Half Kidding but HPC is as useless as a turd in a punch bowl IMO for the MW especially this far out..

Favoring the GFS is pretty fooking hilarious though. Trend this winter for a cutter is not our friend so I suppose I can see their hesitation in using the Euro to some degree.

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