Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I just saw 144 on the PSU site. Yeah, that would have elicited an uh oh from me if I was in LAF. Based on the slp configuration at that time, I'm surprised this thing didn't cut. Big time arctic air in Canada that's pressing south no doubt helps stave off a big cut. Still it goes up through NY state eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 2M's creep just above 0 at IND, but stay below for most areas along and North of I70 across Indiana and Western Ohio on the Euro. QPF: IND: .81 (some mixing issues possible) MIE: .9 (likely all frozen) LAF: .75 (likely all frozen) DAY: .72 (some mixing issues possible) FWA: 1.00 (all frozen - big winner) LOT: .58 (likely all frozen) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 There is a high to the north that prevents the hard cut. Yeah, and the H5 trough looks pos/neutral tilt and progressive. Probably the best setup. You lose out on the chance of letting this slow down and drop copious amounts of snow, but you also avoid the risk of sending it through GRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 2M's creep just above 0 at IND, but stay below for most areas along and North of I70 across Indiana and Western Ohio on the Euro. QPF: IND: .81 (some mixing issues possible) MIE: .9 (likely all frozen) LAF: .75 (likely all frozen) DAY: .72 (some mixing issues possible) FWA: 1.00 (all frozen - big winner) DTW por favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Welp, I'm going to try and not going to get too invested in this one. Nice consistency from the EURO and the GGEM (I think 3 runs in a row showing something like this) but it's still D6 so anything can happen. Gotta a nice clipper to focus on in the mean time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 2M's creep just above 0 at IND, but stay below for most areas along and North of I70 across Indiana and Western Ohio on the Euro. QPF: IND: .81 (some mixing issues possible) MIE: .9 (likely all frozen) LAF: .75 (likely all frozen) DAY: .72 (some mixing issues possible) FWA: 1.00 (all frozen - big winner) LOT: .58 (likely all frozen) CMH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What was the QPF for STL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 concillation prize on euro: eastcoast torches...they lose their snowcover just in time for the arctic air to arrive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Big time arctic air in Canada that's pressing south no doubt helps stave off a big cut. Still it goes up through NY state eventually. That is some really brutal stuff coming down. per 2m temps you guys are at -5 to -10 for Highs.. With -10s for lows. Has -20s for lows for QC area to near Peoria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i vote we try to keep QPF requests for 150hr+ runs to a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Welp, I'm going to try and not going to get too invested in this one. Nice consistency from the EURO and the GGEM (I think 3 runs in a row showing something like this) but it's still D6 so anything can happen. Gotta a nice clipper to focus on in the mean time. If everything breaks right (clipper and this Euro storm), big if obviously with the 2nd, you can safely tack on 10-15"+ to your current seasonal totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DTW (FTW): 1.1 (all frozen) LSX: .65 (not all frozen) CMH: .51 through 180, however there is likely additional qpf after 180, temperature issues at onset though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z lolgaps still shows a nice hit for KY/Southern Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 CMH? .52 rain to snow. My area all rain. Im rooting for an east trend here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i vote we try to keep QPF requests for 150hr+ runs to a minimum. I don't mind posting some just for sh*ts and giggles, obviously they definitely shouldn't be taken seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DTW (FTW): 1.1 (all frozen) LSX: .65 (not all frozen) CMH: .51 through 180, however there is likely additional qpf after 180, temperature issues at onset though yea a track like that would definitely have to fight the WTOD here. However with arctic high pressing it will probably changeover frozen verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 .52 rain to snow. My area all rain. Im rooting for an east trend here lol and this will be the time it doesn't happen. Lots of time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 .87 for CLE and gets to 0.0 on the 2m temps before going back down. so itd be close to all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i vote we try to keep QPF requests for 150hr+ runs to a minimum. I completely disagree. This is supposed to be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That is some really brutal stuff coming down. per 2m temps you guys are at -5 to -10 for Highs.. With -10s for lows. Has -20s for lows for QC area to near Peoria. Assuming/fantasizing that everything goes as planned per this run, it would be some kind of cold. Safe to say, with snowcover, it would be even probably colder. Oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Temps behind this thing are just brutal per the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i vote we try to keep QPF requests for 150hr+ runs to a minimum. yes, it's become such a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 prelim long range HPC thoughts PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 903 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 VALID 12Z SAT JAN 29 2011 - 12Z TUE FEB 01 2011 THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM A MEAN RIDGE OVER THE WEST/TROUGH OVER THE EAST ON DAY 3 TOWARD A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES/RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY DAY 7. THE MANNER IN WHICH INDIVIDUAL MODELS ACTUALLY ARRIVE AT THEIR PREDICTIONS VARIES CONSIDERABLY HOWEVER...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY THE UNUSUALLY LARGE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION SPREAD ENTERING DAY 3...LAGGED-AVERAGE FORECASTS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF...AND THE TOTAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THUS...THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WILL EMPHASIZE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONTINUITY TO THE FULL EXTENT POSSIBLE...WITH GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS USED TO CONSTRUCT THE PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONTS FOR DAYS 3/7...INCLUDING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/GEFS MEAN/NAEFS BCMEAN. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THE MEANS INVOLVES THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY DAY 7...WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE AMPLIFIED AND STRONGER THAN THE GEFS/NAEFS. WOULD NORMALLY PLACE GREATER EMPHASIS ON THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IN SUCH A CASE DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION AND GREATER NUMBER OF MEMBERS CONSTITUTING ITS MEAN. HOWEVER...TELECONNECTIONS WITH THE LARGE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY NEAR HUDSON BAY SHOWS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GEFS/NAEFS. THUS...REDUCED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTRIBUTION TO ABOUT 50 PERCENT. ALSO MANUALLY INCORPORATED DETERMINISTIC DETAIL IN THE PROGS WHERE CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS EXISTED. HOWEVER...THIS WAS MINIMAL...WITH CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 yes, it's become such a problem. i find how much for MBY posts to be boring clutter and utterly useless at 150+hrs, if others like it, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Assuming/fantasizing that everything goes as planned per this run, it would be some kind of cold. Safe to say, with snowcover, it would be even probably colder. Oh my. Yeah that could get ugly if we get as deep of a snowpack as this run would suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Temps behind this thing are just brutal per the Euro Not to bring "99" up again but from what I remember is that after the big storm it really got cold. I will have to look it up and see just how cold it really got around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i vote we try to keep QPF requests for 150hr+ runs to a minimum. How many big storms have you had this year? I think people are happy to see something on the maps for once and want to know the amounts the Euro is pumping out. I don't see this as a problem at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How many big storms have you had this year? I think people are happy to see something on the maps for once and want to know the amounts the Euro is pumping out. I don't see this as a problem at all. 1 being generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not to bring "99" up again but from what I remember is that after the big storm it really got cold. I will have to look it up and see just how cold it really got around these parts. It got cold around Chicago...like minus teens below zero and colder in the outlying areas. I think Illinois set a new state record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 even though the euro moves the storm nicely towards the lakes (and the pattern supports it)......i am not buying any solution which lessens the confluence over my head just timed right as on the 12z euro (with direct implications S and W through the OV/lower lakes).... it hasnt budged for over 2 years in the right manner, so no sense in believe it will now.....at this time. still nice to look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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