SACRUS Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM looks similar to the 00z ukm/ecm only 12 hours slower. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&hh=096&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&hh=096&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Posts that do not add to the discussion of the forecast or that have terrible analysis will be deleted today. I'm just letting people know ahead of time that there will be tighter moderation, so there aren't 150 posts asking "why did my post get deleted?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You've pretty much made it clear what you think. Well no worries on the flow with this per the NAM. Winds across the region out of the NNE or N. Thusly this may be why interior sections are dry on this run. But with surface temps at or below freezing from 95 NW and a strong N/NNE flow and a low bombing SE of the coast, would expect a nice solution if it were extrapolated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well no worries on the flow with this per the NAM. Winds across the region out of the NNE or N. Thusly this may be why interior sections are dry on this run. But with surface temps at or below freezing from 95 NW and a strong N/NNE flow and a low bombing SE of the coast, would expect a nice solution if it were extrapolated... The NAM always does not throw enough precip back into the cold sector late in its range...all models sort of have that bias to an extent from my experience but the NAM is very guilty of doing it and also not having very smoothed out edges to its QPF either late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes, the sounding in and around nyc indicate a favorable wind position above the surface, ie. ene and ne, not E or SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes, the sounding in and around nyc indicate a favorable wind position above the surface, ie. ene and ne, not E or SE Consistent with that observation, Bufkit through the end of the NAM's run shows LGA as all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Per Coolwx rain/snow line close to I95 in philly area. (and generally from DC to NY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The 12z NAM forecast sounding for PHL (via Bufkit) has the low-level thermal profile going pretty much isothermal from about 6,000 feet down. This leads to a little rain to start then the column cools and then snow occurs. The depth of the isothermal layer then makes the precipitation type go back and forth several times between rain and snow. If this thermal profile happens, it would probably be a dump of heavy wet snow with perhaps a period of mixing. Lots can go wrong with this thermal profile as a slight change in a layer would impact the precipitation type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Per Coolwx rain/snow line close to I95 in philly area. (and generally from DC to NY) Given the event has an increased chance of occurring at night and with as deep of a low as would be out there I'd be surprised if it was not all snow if the exact scenario the NAM and Euro want to show occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes, the sounding in and around nyc indicate a favorable wind position above the surface, ie. ene and ne, not E or SE Is the high that scoots east responsible for prohibiting winds from the E or SE? Is that what limits the warm air coming up the eastern side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Is the high that scoots east responsible for prohibiting winds from the E or SE? Is that what limits the warm air coming up the back side? More or less...that high is no longer there to cause the SE gradient, exactly why I said this event had a good chance if the high was long gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Given the event has an increased chance of occurring at night and with as deep of a low as would be out there I'd be surprised if it was not all snow if the exact scenario the NAM and Euro want to show occurs. Yeah and would probably trend to snow as low develops offshore. 850 low is in a favorable position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Consistent with that observation, Bufkit through the end of the NAM's run shows LGA as all snow. Pretty easy call at the end of january with cold air and snow cover all over NE. As long as the wind profile stays like that with the low bombing to the south and east its snow. But this is really close and it really will be a day of call I fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Made a post last night in regards to the closest analogue I see to this storm and the 12Z NAM comes even closer to that analogue playing out... January 25, 2000 Really similar surface and h5 depictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Made a post last night in regards to the closest analogue I see to this storm and the 12Z NAM comes even closer to that analogue playing out... January 25, 2000 Really similar surface and h5 depictions. The upper air pattern is close to it...the actual type of scenario that might play out is closer to 3/15/99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 SG, I agree...just checked that out on the NARR. I guess this is the closest we've been to a Jan 2000 scenario in a long time. Could see this continue to move closer to coast and possibly wind up and occlude like 2000 once that piece of energy dives into the system that the NAM seems to be picking up on. No solution off the table. Touch and go until 12Z tuesday or later probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The upper air pattern is close to it...the actual type of scenario that might play out is closer to 3/15/99 In this area rain changed to heavy wet snow as you drove accross the fall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 MT. Holly updated AFD ! THE WINTER STORM... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PORTION.... AT THIS POINT...THE 0000 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS IS SHOWING A MARKED SLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT STORM DURING THE MIDWEEK. RIGHT NOW...THE 0000 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS THE TIMING. THE 12Z NAM IS SLOW BUT AT LEAST ITS RETURNED TO A COASTAL STORM SOLUTION. STILL THINK ITS AT LEAST 6 HOURS TOO SLOW BUT WILL DEFER TO 12Z OP MODEL GEFS/HPC CONSENSUS IN THE AFTN FCST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPES. WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND TO A COLDER AND SLOWER SOLUTION...NOT MUCH CAN BE MADE OF THIS YET. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS. THIS EVENT...WHATEVER IT IS...HAS HAD A CONSTANT SIGNAL /NAEFS SINCE THE 20TH/ FOR LARGEST QPF ALONG THE COAST. UNFORTUNATELY...PRESUMING THIS IS CORRECT... IT MAY NOT MATTER SINCE THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATEDN SHORT WAVE SCOOPING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE IS SEEMINGLY MAKING THIS A HEAVY QPF PRODUCER ALONG THE COAST. 00Z/23 PROBS FOR 2 INCHES ARE 10 PCT ALONG THE COAST WITH PROB FOR AN INCH 30-50 PCT ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA. THATS NOT SAYING AN INCH WILL OCCUR ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95 ..IN FACT YOU COULD LOOK AT IT AS A 50 TO 70 PCT CHANCE OF LESS THAN 1 INCH. THE POINT...THE STAKES ARE SUBSTANTIAL FOR BOTH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES AS IT DOES APPEAR IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW OR ICE I95 WEST...PRESUMING THE OUT TO SEA VERSIONS OF THE 06Z NCEP ENSEMBLES ARE INCORRECT...AND THAT THE EC/UK TANDEM OF RECENT CYCLES ARE CORRECTLY SUPPORTING AN EVENT. ONE THING I DONT LIKE ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL EVENT... THE APPARENT LACK OF MODELED PHASING... IE A SMALLER SEPARATE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THAT PLUS A WARMER PRE-EVENT BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT MAKES THIS A DIFFERENT POTENTIAL EVENT THAN THAT OF 12/26/10. WE`LL REREVIEW SEVERAL TIMES BETWEEN 1130AM AND 230PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just so everyone is aware, ECMWF is offering free MSLP and precip maps today: http://ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!96!North%20America!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2011012300!!/ They should still be available for 12Z runs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 SG, I agree...just checked that out on the NARR. I guess this is the closest we've been to a Jan 2000 scenario in a long time. Could see this continue to move closer to coast and possibly wind up and occlude like 2000 once that piece of energy dives into the system that the NAM seems to be picking up on. No solution off the table. Touch and go until 12Z tuesday or later probably. I agree but the ecm/ukmet have been farily consistent with a more robust storm. Lets see if they hold or trend in anyway later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 While we wait for the GFS, snow growth layer is pretty high up as one would imagine but for LGA is does show some decent vv through the snow growth layer with good saturation, so that is a positive. Again, its an eternity when using the NAM, but just throwing that out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 anyone got a line on the GFS ? 12Z GFS 30: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Way more energy digging into the trough at 42 hrs. This should be a better ultimate solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12Z GFS 42: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 gfs digging this thing into Mexico..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The one major diff. vs. 3/15/1999 is that this event will have much colder air out ahead of it. 3/15/99 had only a stale polar airmass with dewpoints in the low 20s. The upper air pattern is close to it...the actual type of scenario that might play out is closer to 3/15/99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 For Jersey Shore folks, checked soundings at Sandy Hook (K56N) and clearly looks like snowstorm getting going on NAM. Surface briefly goes from freezing to around 35 in the hours before event and as the precip moves in it cools quickly to 33. All other layers below freezing and wind is WNW at around 280s in hours before storm moves up, goes to 55 degrees at worst and by the time the good precip is moving in and pressures are dropping it goes to 37 degrees and heading more northerly. With snowpack, coldest part of year, looks like pseudo banana high (not the most favorable but it will do) and water temps very, very cold, looks like a snowstorm to me. Belmar is similar but a degree or two warmer at surface. Other layers are also borderline but could be overcome by dynamics. ACY has favorable wind flow and heavy precip but BL a few degrees too warm to be overcome, and other layers are above freezing. Looks like rain there for now. So I would put a rain/snow line somewhere around Asbury Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The 12z GFS run looks similar through 48 to the 00z run at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just mentioning this pending final outcome of the gfs, but a lot of convection in the gulf, and the gfs and the nam are known to struggle with that kind of convection. Be on the look out for convective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Man this thing digs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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