MJO812 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 RSM is Just offshore with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The only trend I've been noticing is a different wrinkle of an outcome with each new set of runs.....Well, hey lets see what 12z can throw out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the inland runner is becoming less and less likely each model cycle with the further OTS solutions. The 12Z Euro will determine if we can further discount the inland solution from the possibilities. The controlling factor in this set up is how strong high pressure can build out of Canada prior to the storm making the turn in the SE up the coast. Almost impossible to determine at this point of course. I myself would rather see these OTS solutions then the constant inland runner coast hugger over amplified ones. - the high pressure in SE canada is crucial in this set up if you want snow....... It all depends on where one lives. As the old cliche' goes, one man's trash is another's treasure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well this run (12z) now that all of the players are in raob range hopefully will come closer to a track consensus. There are going to be ptype issues around I95 southeast even with an offshore track, that won't get resolved today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 HPC kind of lost some credibility after the "Initialization error fiasco" last month - so you would expect them to be play ing their cards real close to the vest the rest of the winter and not commit to much this far out..... From HPC. Summation = we dont know GUIDANCE OFFERS A COMPLICATED SHORT RANGE MESS INTO MIDWEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST SPREAD WITH POTENTIAL SRN STREAM STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY PCPN POTENTIAL OUT FROM THE SERN US AND UP/OFF THE EAST COAST INTO THU. UNCERTAINTY WITH UPSTREAM KICKER ENERGY...CONVECTIVE FOCUS...AND NRN STREAM INTERACTION HAS LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND SUPPRESSION ISSUES WITH THE STORM. THE OO UTC ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00 UTC GFS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A DEEPENING LOW TRACK MORE ON THE WESTWARD PORTION OF THE ENTIRE SOLUTION ENVELOPE IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE MORE SUPPRESSED 00 UTC NOGAPS AND 06 UTC GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM/DGEX AND ESPECIALLY GFS THAT IS LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH BOTH SRN STREAM KICKER ENERGY AND LEAD LOW DEVELOPMENT. THIS ALLOWS NRN STREAM FLOW TO BE MORE DOMINANT LEADING TO A FARTHER OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE STORM. ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN UNCHARACTERISTICALLY PROGRESSIVE THAN GFS ENSEMBLES ALOFT WITH ENERGIES MOVING INTO AND OUT FROM THE MEAN EAST-CENTRAL US TROUGH POSITION ALOFT CONSIDERING THE AMPLITUDE OF MEAN RIDGING CENETERED OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA. 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN YESTERDAYS 12 UTC RUNS...BUT REMAIN ON THE ERN PORTION OF THE SOLTUION ENVELOPE. OVERALL...PREFER TO MAINTAIN HPC CONTINUITY AMID UNCERTAINTY WITH A SOLUTION STILL PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND REASONABLY SUPPORTIVE 00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. HOWEVER...ANY OF THESE SOLUTIONS REMAIN PLAUIBLE IN THIS SENSITIVE FLOW PATTERN AND WE AWAIT 12 UTC GUIDANCE UPDATED INFO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM looks amped so far this morning. Don't think this will be OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM looks amped so far this morning. Don't think this will be OTS BUT the NAM is still out of its range (60) hours because of the delay in the LP developing and moving....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Agreed, and truthfully that fiasco was a disaster. It was just unreal to watch it unfold and you could just see it coming. HPC kind of lost some credibility after the "Initialization error fiasco" last month - so you would expect them to be play ing their cards real close to the vest the rest of the winter and not commit to much this far out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 BUT the NAM is still out of its range (60) hours because of the delay in the LP developing and moving....... Its only out to 36 now. If gulf low doesn't amplify its OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Definitely is going to be a little better solution vs. 6z run. A little more energy digging into the trough this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 9Z eta FWIW. Looks like a coastal scraper with the 0C 850 line along 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ETA looks like the Euro. Good track but not enough cold air for the coast. 850s are hugging the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 HPC kind of lost some credibility after the "Initialization error fiasco" last month - so you would expect them to be play ing their cards real close to the vest the rest of the winter and not commit to much this far out..... Hmmm, I must have missed that. It could have happened when I was on vacation last month and not paying attention to the model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Some of the Polar Energy is phasing in this run at 54 hours. This is definitely a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hmmm, I must have missed that. It could have happened when I was on vacation last month and not paying attention to the model guidance. Yeah it was before the 12/26 Blizzard....all the models had it OTS but then the GFS brought it back at 12z. In their next update the HPC said through out the GFS because of initialization errors.....by 12z the next day every model had the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And wrong probably given the fact that no one knows what's going on with this storm. I really hate it when people make statements like "it will be snow to rain," or "it won't snow on the coast," or "the storm will go out to sea." There is no such thing as "it WILL" when it comes to snow forecasting several days out with zero consistency and a lack of consensus. Those are sensational and/or ignorant statements that no one should be giving any attention to. The same goes with a DT snowfall map being published this early. A snowfall accumulation map is the exact same thing only in graphical wording that says "It will" Many people take that as being gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah it was before the 12/26 Blizzard....all the models had it OTS but then the GFS brought it back at 12z. In their next update the HPC said through out the GFS because of initialization errors.....by 12z the next day every model had the storm. wasnt just the gfs, i belive the nam did the same and they tossed that to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It was December 24th. It was really bad, honestly. It was like a world record disaster. Could not have been much worse from a meteorological perspective. Hmmm, I must have missed that. It could have happened when I was on vacation last month and not paying attention to the model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 At 60 hours the NAM has the surface low in the gulf and not on shore. This is crucial for eventual track. Still on the slow boat to china. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 At 60 hours the NAM has the surface low in the gulf and not on shore. This is crucial for eventual check. Still on the slow boat to china. Looks good at 60. May thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiqqa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 at hr60 theres a 1024mb HP up near maine. can the banana high that HM hinted on during the week be coming back? boy i hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Although few will give the man credit...he has not changed his forecast for the last 3 days....he predicted the model trends out to sea as is usually the case. The fact is if he is correct with his rain on the coast; snow to rain for the big cities of PHL and NYC and all snow inland he will still get hammered. I see he mentioned this morning his stand on the Christmas storm and that he received abuse for standing his ground based on what he viewed as the meteorology not modelology of the storm...in that case he was correct unlike a MET who indicated he "screwed the pooch" based on a model runs and forecasted storm cancel. This is not a criticism of that MET just that this is not an exact science but all views...even those outside of model support should be respected if there is some science behind the forecast. I see nothing in JB's current forecast that is as Sundog says below "sensational and/or ignorant" Where is the respect for the fine professional meteorologists who post here and for those who choose not to?? Can we try and show some respect even if you don't like a professionals personality or the fact he chooses not to post here? Paul And wrong probably given the fact that no one knows what's going on with this storm. I really hate it when people make statements like "it will be snow to rain," or "it won't snow on the coast," or "the storm will go out to sea." There is no such thing as "it WILL" when it comes to snow forecasting several days out with zero consistency and a lack of consensus. Those are sensational and/or ignorant statements that no one should be giving any attention to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 IMO the best chance at this point for snow even on the coast would be a coastal runner bomb that pulls cold air in, seeing that even wide right solutions are still warm for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This may be a dumb question, but if it continues to slow, will it be able to phase in a 3rd piece of energy, thus making more wrapped up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Really some big steps in the right direction with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I wouldn't worry too much about the NAM coming up the apps or taking any inland track. It looks like fast flow across the north is pushing the whole trough east and this thing is really going to stuggle to come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 at hr60 theres a 1024mb HP up near maine. can the banana high that HM hinted on during the week be coming back? boy i hope so The banana high saved the coast from getting a rainstorm on VD 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 At 60 hours the NAM has the surface low in the gulf and not on shore. This is crucial for eventual track. Still on the slow boat to china. This LP is taking the scenic route along the southeast texas coast starting out and looping just offshore to south of mississippi at 60 - where will it make the turn ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiqqa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The banana high saved the coast from getting a rainstorm on VD 2007. yes and itll help serve a more widepsread heavy snow event over a large area, not just heavy banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 At 63 hours that new HP is booking it across canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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