Sunny and Warm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This storm really slowed up on the 6z runs. That is a good thing because it would allow the new high to come down and establish a cold air source for our storm. What looked like a Tuesday into Wednesday threat is now looking like a Wednesday into Thursday threat. All the models are starting to show the high to the north. Very interesting. Be careful what you wish for. That high also pushes the storm OTS as it delivers the cold air as per 6z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Be careful what you wish for. That high also pushes the storm OTS as it delivers the cold air as per 6z runs. That's true but with a positive PNA and a rising NAO, I doubt this storm goes OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 DT first guess map has NYC in 6-12 and CT in 12+ - http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/NE1g.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 DT first guess map has NYC in 6-12 and CT in 12+ - http://www.wxrisk.co...011/01/NE1g.jpg He tends to run a bit high on his first guesses but generally has a good idea of where the heavier amounts are....I would envision something 4-8 or 5-10 or so if the NYC region could get into the CCB...it would definitely be the tree breaking/power outage/back breaking type of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looking at late night runs. Looks like anything from mostly rain to OTS is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 DT first guess map has NYC in 6-12 and CT in 12+ - http://www.wxrisk.co...011/01/NE1g.jpg interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You guys are not getting a snowstorm on the east coast I'm sorry but there's next time. You guys actually believe DT, all along he has been saying this will go west of the Mississipi river. Not that I'm jealous but...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looking at late night runs. Looks like anything from mostly rain to OTS is still on the table. Dt is not buying the OTS solutions, that's for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 He posted that at 11pm last night before the out to sea solutions really showed up yet. I wonder what his map would look like now? Dt is not buying the OTS solutions, that's for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The Wxsim with its 6z model input has a grand total of 0.00" of QFP for the upcoming storm....just a few light flurries at most. I would guess this will change when GFS/NAM trend inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Give yourself some extra time to shovel that snow and get to work. The Wxsim with its 6z model input has a grand total of 0.00" of QFP for the upcoming storm....just a few light flurries at most. I would guess this will change when GFS/NAM trend inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Some heavy duty winds also with this one.....up to 50 knot gusts on the CT shore and LI......wind blown ice crystals..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 He posted that at 11pm last night before the out to sea solutions really showed up yet. I wonder what his map would look like now? If you know anything about DT at all you would know he hates the GFS, and since the EC is hanging in there I doubt he will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You guys are not getting a snowstorm on the east coast I'm sorry but there's next time. You guys actually believe DT, all along he has been saying this will go west of the Mississipi river. Not that I'm jealous but...... What? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 True. I think the models will come back to reality, or at least I hope so, otherwise my forecast will bust in a big way. If you know anything about DT at all you would know he hates the GFS, and since the EC is hanging in there I doubt he will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You guys are not getting a snowstorm on the east coast I'm sorry but there's next time. You guys actually believe DT, all along he has been saying this will go west of the Mississipi river. Not that I'm jealous but...... When was the last time Toronto had a blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 When was the last time Toronto had a blizzard? true blizzard was back in 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If you know anything about DT at all you would know he hates the GFS, and since the EC is hanging in there I doubt he will change. Speaking of hating the GFS, JB update this morning is a complete trashing of the GFS. He says the low track will be just inside Hatteras and Cape Cod with the heavy snows west of the big cities. Snow to rain in NYC on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Interesting. Speaking of hating the GFS, JB update this morning is a complete trashing of the GFS. He says the low track will be just inside Hatteras and Cape Cod with the heavy snows west of the big cities. Snow to rain in NYC on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You guys are not getting a snowstorm on the east coast I'm sorry but there's next time. You guys actually believe DT, all along he has been saying this will go west of the Mississipi river. Not that I'm jealous but...... You should spend more time with your Ottawa Blizzard counter part in Don Sutherland's threads asking Don for updates every 15 minutes on how cold and how much snow will occur in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Speaking of hating the GFS, JB update this morning is a complete trashing of the GFS. He says the low track will be just inside Hatteras and Cape Cod with the heavy snows west of the big cities. Snow to rain in NYC on Wednesday. He may be right if the trend of losing a storm in the 3-5 day range only to bring it back closer to the event is to believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Sref is still really slow with this storm. It still shows an offshore solution. Precip is more west this run than previous runs. Freezing line is just outside NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Interesting. What doesn't make much sense to me though is after saying where it says the low will track he says he likes the look of the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 He may be right if the trend of losing a storm in the 3-5 day range only to bring it back closer to the event is to believed. Probably. I do agree with him on the GFS. When it comes to winter storms on the east coast 3-4 days out, this model doesn't have a clue. His argument is a very sound one in regards to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 SREF's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Have seen it a million times. He may be right if the trend of losing a storm in the 3-5 day range only to bring it back closer to the event is to believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And wrong probably given the fact that no one knows what's going on with this storm. I really hate it when people make statements like "it will be snow to rain," or "it won't snow on the coast," or "the storm will go out to sea." There is no such thing as "it WILL" when it comes to snow forecasting several days out with zero consistency and a lack of consensus. Those are sensational and/or ignorant statements that no one should be giving any attention to. If anything the situation has become more convoluted, not less. This is going to continue to bounce around especially with a lot fot his data not within the US sounding grid which is why these storm is slow/fast on various models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 09 SREFs are a slight improvement over 03. This storm keeps getting later and later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the inland runner is becoming less and less likely each model cycle with the further OTS solutions. The 12Z Euro will determine if we can further discount the inland solution from the possibilities. The controlling factor in this set up is how strong high pressure can build out of Canada prior to the storm making the turn in the SE up the coast. Almost impossible to determine at this point of course. I myself would rather see these OTS solutions then the constant inland runner coast hugger over amplified ones. - the high pressure in SE canada is crucial in this set up if you want snow....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 From HPC. Summation = we dont know GUIDANCE OFFERS A COMPLICATED SHORT RANGE MESS INTO MIDWEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST SPREAD WITH POTENTIAL SRN STREAM STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY PCPN POTENTIAL OUT FROM THE SERN US AND UP/OFF THE EAST COAST INTO THU. UNCERTAINTY WITH UPSTREAM KICKER ENERGY...CONVECTIVE FOCUS...AND NRN STREAM INTERACTION HAS LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND SUPPRESSION ISSUES WITH THE STORM. THE OO UTC ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00 UTC GFS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A DEEPENING LOW TRACK MORE ON THE WESTWARD PORTION OF THE ENTIRE SOLUTION ENVELOPE IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE MORE SUPPRESSED 00 UTC NOGAPS AND 06 UTC GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM/DGEX AND ESPECIALLY GFS THAT IS LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH BOTH SRN STREAM KICKER ENERGY AND LEAD LOW DEVELOPMENT. THIS ALLOWS NRN STREAM FLOW TO BE MORE DOMINANT LEADING TO A FARTHER OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE STORM. ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN UNCHARACTERISTICALLY PROGRESSIVE THAN GFS ENSEMBLES ALOFT WITH ENERGIES MOVING INTO AND OUT FROM THE MEAN EAST-CENTRAL US TROUGH POSITION ALOFT CONSIDERING THE AMPLITUDE OF MEAN RIDGING CENETERED OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA. 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN YESTERDAYS 12 UTC RUNS...BUT REMAIN ON THE ERN PORTION OF THE SOLTUION ENVELOPE. OVERALL...PREFER TO MAINTAIN HPC CONTINUITY AMID UNCERTAINTY WITH A SOLUTION STILL PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND REASONABLY SUPPORTIVE 00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. HOWEVER...ANY OF THESE SOLUTIONS REMAIN PLAUIBLE IN THIS SENSITIVE FLOW PATTERN AND WE AWAIT 12 UTC GUIDANCE UPDATED INFO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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