tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 well this is going to be vastly different from 0z...the whole h5 looks is just no where near where it was at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 jeez, whatever the nam saw at 6z the gfs sniffed it to...the h5 difference is wow Yeah--massive differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yea I don't know what to think of these 6z runs... blips or picking up on something new that could be in the works... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol hr 81 its trying to phase in the 2nd shortwave that the nam just missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 way ots this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 nogaps may hit bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 if the gfs were to hold the energy bac like 6 hrs slower i think it map of phased with that shortwave comming down out of canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 0z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 0z 6z it has that same high on the nam to, right over pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Perhaps this is relevant THE 00Z GFS APPEARS QUICK WITH A SYSTEM NEAR THE GREATLAKES LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SLOW WITH A SYSTEM NEAR THE PACIFICNORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...SO DID NOT USE ITS SOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 No precip north of Richmond... Edit: Petersburg.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 going to be interesting to see what the ens show... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong, but I do believe the SREF were also OTS at 3z? As the ETA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong, but I do believe the SREF were also OTS at 3z? As the ETA... correct with the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Now were talking, not what I want to see. Went from inland rainstorm to ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Now were talking, not what I want to see. Went from inland rainstorm to ots. its prob just a blip, but its interesting to see both the nam and gfs show the same. Could of been garbage in garbage out, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 gfs ens mean is way se... goes from hse to about 75 miles south of the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 gfs ens mean is way se... goes from hse to about 75 miles south of the bm Yep. They are southeast and much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 looking at the spread through spaghetti plots, the operational is the furthest south, but no members are inland they all look to be atleast 50 or so miles off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 gfs ens mean is way se... goes from hse to about 75 miles south of the bm Well that makes every single 6z run. Either they're seeing something nothing had seen before, or there is some measurement somewhere of something in the atmosphere that has been screwed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ens mean accum qpf phl .5 nyc .5-.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 gfs ens mean is way se... goes from hse to about 75 miles south of the bm I can't believe that the NAM, GFS, and GEFS trended this way by mistake. New data perhaps, but the trend is there. As I said previously, I have no dog in this fight (San Antonio bound Monday), so I may be more prone to reality than normal. We'll know more in six hours when the 12z runs sample the s/w much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 its probably just a 6z fart, but it is interesting all the 6z models trended like that. Maybe it was new or bad data put in, who knows. 12z runs will be interesting, thankfully ill be sleeping for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 its probably just a 6z fart, but it is interesting all the 6z models trended like that. Maybe it was new or bad data put in, who knows. 12z runs will be interesting, thankfully ill be sleeping for them. You embarrass slugs! Not sure unamimity of one entire run of models can be considered a fart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 up from my nap.... love the signals beyond this time frame, so whatever happens with this system we've got like a one day break and then right back to tracking. i wouldnt expect anything else during such a remarkable winter season but im still in awe of it. driving around the past month or so your mind can wander off as if your at the base of a ski moutain or somewhere in the tug hill plateau. the snowpack is just beautiful. with that said...i think a ec/gfs compromise is the way to go here. leaves enough wiggle room for forecasters should it be more snow or more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 its probably just a 6z fart, but it is interesting all the 6z models trended like that. Maybe it was new or bad data put in, who knows. 12z runs will be interesting, thankfully ill be sleeping for them. Winning formula: [12Z | 00Z] runs will be [interesting | telling | crucial | critical]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Honestly, for the coastal folks if this thing misses I doubt anyone is heart broken, this thing even it does go benchmark or just inside needs alot of things right with dynamic cooling etc. to be a snow producer or a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Honestly, for the coastal folks if this thing misses I doubt anyone is heart broken, this thing even it does go benchmark or just inside needs alot of things right with dynamic cooling etc. to be a snow producer or a big one. Considering it's a big threat to be partially rain here, I wouldn't mind this storm missing offshore and reloading for the next one. It looks as if we have a nice -EPO/-AO pattern coming for the last days of January into early February, so I'm not too concerned about missing one Nor'easter that isn't an ideal set-up anyway. Both the GFS and the ECM have a good pattern going for the next two weeks with lots of ridging over the American West and up towards AK, polar vortex staying over Canada and supplying some brutal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Alittle inland would be fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This storm really slowed up on the 6z runs. That is a good thing because it would allow the new high to come down and establish a cold air source for our storm. What looked like a Tuesday into Wednesday threat is now looking like a Wednesday into Thursday threat. All the models are starting to show the high to the north. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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