Kaner587 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 funny i posted that jan 21....i forgot what model showed something like this but judging by the timestamp it was the 12Z euro on the 21st. Posts: 515 Joined: November 12, 2010 <br class="clear" style="clear: both; "> Warn Status Posted 21 January 2011 - 01:32 PM december 25 2002 FTW? the euro's depiction would actually be an amped version of that for some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not as bad a night as I thought was coming for my area. Still a lot could go wrong and I don't like the sharp cutoff but sitting at 1.25" even if it were to go to 1" it wouldn't be that bad. The GGEM is still too wrapped up in my opinion but if it were to move another 50 miles or so to the east, it would look like the euro so possibly it was the right idea.. 0z GFS is starting to shift and move back west so hopefully this is the storm that gets all of us hvy snow. It's been disastrous back here so my guard is still wayyyy up. But I think all can agree, with the exception of the NAM, things are moving in the right direction for inland areas. I agree - we would all win in PA if the Euro is correct. We start as rain in SE PA, but get more precip. You should stay snow and rack up a lot, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Xmas 02' ALL over again. I think the long island snows would be alittle better forecast this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 the euro's depiction would actually be an amped version of that for some areas that storm gave albany about 24"....i wonder why storms this year have had such a tight precip area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Could one of Tom or noreaster07 explain why their precip descriptions don't seem to match especially further west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hey PT. Noticed you were in the forum. What are your thoughts about the latest GFS and Euro? How does Nassau County do with regard to precip type issues? Any comments would be welcome from many of us on here. Thanks. I think there is still going to be some more flip/flopping by these models. I do not think there is a clearly established trend just yet as they tend to switch back & forth about every other run cycle. I think the ECMWF and GFS do not handle well a storm with so many factors at play. Once this gets into NAM range (24-48 hours), I think the NAM will do a better job at pinpointing exactly who gets what. As of now, it seems that most of us start out with either rain or a mix and then go over to snow, but how much rain/mix and how much snow?--there is really no way to know for sure yet. But it is hinted by GFS & ECMWF that NYC and points north and west are better favored for a little more frozen while Long Island might be favored for a little bit less. Even so, there is no reason to have confidence in this idea yet.--NAM should help answer some of these questions. Regardless, I would still not be surprised to see some more big changes either way. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Could one of Tom or noreaster07 explain why their precip descriptions don't seem to match especially further west? hazleton is on the 1 inch line its around there...the cutoff is oretty sharp, not from snow to no snow but from qpf amts...u get 6-10 just put it like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Could one of Tom or noreaster07 explain why their precip descriptions don't seem to match especially further west? It is very hard to see, the QPf map is the whole US and its small, the bands of precip are extremely close toegther15-20 miles wide and less in spots and oh yeah the map is curved when I compare to google maps to try to match up line with cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just wanted to ask no one really ever talked about wind. Is there any concern about wind with all this heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think there is still going to be some more flip/flopping by these models. I do not think there is a clearly established trend just yet as they tend to switch back & forth about every other run cycle. I think the ECMWF and GFS do not handle well a storm with so many factors at play. Once this gets into NAM range (24-48 hours), I think the NAM will do a better job at pinpointing exactly who gets what. As of now, it seems that most of us start out with either rain or a mix and then go over to snow, but how much rain/mix and how much snow?--there is really no way to know for sure yet. But it is hinted by GFS & ECMWF that NYC and points north and west are better favored for a little more frozen while Long Island might be favored for a little bit less. Even so, there is no reason to have confidence in this idea yet.--NAM should help answer some of these questions. Regardless, I would still not be surprised to see some more big changes either way. WX/PT Thanks for your insight PT. Always refreshing to hear your thoughts. Interesting that you think neither of the big models handle storms that have different factors all that well. Guees the NAM starting tomorrow night may have to be watched carefully. I do think the fact things are slower may help many out if cold air can be drawn into this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hi Tom, great work, thanks. Can you whip up an approximate QPF map that just includes snow? Or just give an areal breakdown like Philly .6 .8, south Jersey E of 95 S of 195, .1 . 6 etc. That would be awesome, again, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hi Tom, great work, thanks. Can you whip up an approximate QPF map that just includes snow? Or just give an areal breakdown like Philly .6 .8, south Jersey E of 95 S of 195, .1 . 6 etc. That would be awesome, again, thanks. just going off 850 phl would be about .5-.75 snow acy would be .1-.3 snow ttn same as phl freehold area is .4-.5 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Awesome, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looking at the Euro text output, 2m temps for EWR do not get below freezing at all during the event. h85's go over freezing once early on. Total QPF for a few areas: LGA 1.6 EWR 1.66 PHL 1.71 BWI 1.36 PNE 1.87 ACY 1.64 JFK 1.57 HPN 1.58 Here's a few snippets, Ewr: Phl: Lga: Abe: Mdt: Hmm, maybe someone could correct me if I'm wrong but, 00z 24 would be tonights run, correct? Seems I'm getting the text outputs before the graphics are even updated for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looking at the Euro text output, 2m temps for EWR do not get below freezing at all during the event. h85's go over freezing once early on. Total QPF for a few areas: LGA 1.6 EWR 1.66 PHL 1.71 BWI 1.36 PNE 1.87 ACY 1.64 JFK 1.57 HPN 1.58 Here's a few snippets, Ewr: Phl: Lga: Abe: Mdt: The models, especially the Euro at that range cannot account for dynamic cooling....I'd guess EWR is snow by 22Z based on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 just going off 850 phl would be about .5-.75 snow acy would be .1-.3 snow ttn same as phl freehold area is .4-.5 snow Could you give a breakdown that includes the suburbs of Philly, Reading, Allentown, etc? Thanks, Tom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hi Tom, great work, thanks. Can you whip up an approximate QPF map that just includes snow? Or just give an areal breakdown like Philly .6 .8, south Jersey E of 95 S of 195, .1 . 6 etc. That would be awesome, again, thanks. Why do people care so much about fine details... cmon, you want him to whip up a map? As if it'll verify anyway - this is 3.5 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Could you give a breakdown that includes the suburbs of Philly, Reading, Allentown, etc? Thanks, Tom. phl and burbs are 4-8. lean towards the higher end further n and w...abe and rdge are in the 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looking at the Euro text output, 2m temps for EWR do not get below freezing at all during the event. h85's go over freezing once early on. Total QPF for a few areas: LGA 1.6 EWR 1.66 PHL 1.71 BWI 1.36 PNE 1.87 ACY 1.64 JFK 1.57 HPN 1.58 Here's a few snippets, Ewr: Phl: Lga: Abe: Mdt: Hmm, maybe someone could correct me if I'm wrong but, 00z 24 would be tonights run, correct? Seems I'm getting the text outputs before the graphics are even updated for me. Very nice.. How about a few for the Hudson Valley... MGJ..SWF etc.. Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Could you give a breakdown that includes the suburbs of Philly, Reading, Allentown, etc? Thanks, Tom. Interpolate what I posted above. Like SnowGoose said, assume that by roughly 0z we're switched over to snow for most of the area. So from 0z onwards whatever precip it shows you can assume that would be snow/mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Interpolate what I posted above. Like SnowGoose said, assume that by roughly 0z we're switched over to snow for most of the area. So from 0z onwards whatever precip it shows you can assume that would be snow/mixed. The Euro depiction is ridiculous in my opinion anyway...I don't envision such a slow crawling or intense storm like that...the track is legitimate but not the timing or intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Interpolate what I posted above. Like SnowGoose said, assume that by roughly 0z we're switched over to snow for most of the area. So from 0z onwards whatever precip it shows you can assume that would be snow/mixed. Thanks. That would be quite a bit of frozen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Very nice.. How about a few for the Hudson Valley... MGJ..SWF etc.. Thanks in advance Sure, mgj: swf: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The Euro depiction is ridiculous in my opinion anyway...I don't envision such a slow crawling or intense storm like that...the track is legitimate but not the timing or intensity. So do you think snow amounts will be less, or it will be colder based on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Sure, mgj: swf: Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So do you think snow amounts will be less, or it will be colder based on that? Yes less QPF because I can't see the system being that slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The Euro depiction is ridiculous in my opinion anyway...I don't envision such a slow crawling or intense storm like that...the track is legitimate but not the timing or intensity. Agreed. I'm still thinking there's just too much in play here that we're not going to get a good handle on anything for at least a few days. When the American hi-res models are within their range I like to use the MM5 for banding and the NAM between 24-48 this winter has been decent. Problem is, I never buy the precip shield on any model >48 hours out (or at least I can nowcast and watch the system on land) because it usually never is correct. Regardless, it does give a little comfort that the majority of the models have gone away from an inland solution. Still think this will be a little more tucked to the coast than what the GFS and Euro are showing along with not being as slow (nothing is slowing this storm down to our north at all) but we'll see how it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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