danstorm Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not to be a bother but could you please add KOKX if its not too much trouble. Thanks. 1.44? Interpolation for the win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 im not sure tim, its all dynamics with this storm. We deff waste prob .5-.75 as liquid. Then once the 850s pass its anyones guess...the frz line never gets within 30 miles of the cities lol...so its all dynamically driven How much QPF is snow near HPN? Any more than NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'll have the text data shortly..but I would say probably 0.6-0.8 falls as snow..it's a tight cutoff and then the CCB develops. Makes sense more frozen as you go west obviously. It seems like the Euro likes a rain to insane snow scenario. Been awhile since we have seen that around here. If it verifies, it should be a fabulous storm to experience. I like a blend between the Euro-GFS at this time but either scenario can verify just as easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 1.44? Interpolation for the win? That would be nice! Thank you! Can we lock this in? No...wish we could though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 you buy it? It's reminiscent (track/precip type) of a typical Northeast storm to be honest. That being said, this is a pretty extreme solution. We were using the phrase "threading the needle" early on with this system. This would be an example of a successful attempt. The track along with the proper dynamic influences for a major hit were all pretty much present in this run. Tombo is correct when he says this is all dynamically driven, something I (to be completely honest) didn't think would be able to overcome the lack of cold air. It's kind of out there, but it puts the thought into the back of my head when I end up making my final call on Tuesday at work (whereas I really hadn't expected a CCB situation to this extent). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 im not sure tim, its all dynamics with this storm. We deff waste prob .5-.75 as liquid. Then once the 850s pass its anyones guess...the frz line never gets within 30 miles of the cities lol...so its all dynamically driven Yeah surface low gets a little too close, especially for Philly. I'd love to know the temps between 850 and the surface. The recent problem we have been running into is the 920mb temp. Anyways, at 72 hours there is still plenty of room for track movement and temp/precip adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So would this be heavy snowfall for south central PA? assuming your around the harrisburg area you may start as rain or mix but you quicly go over to snow. around 1.25 for mdt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 assuming your around the harrisburg area you may start as rain or mix but you quicly go over to snow. around 1.25 for mdt The cut off you posted is a little too close for comfort for the i-81 corridor. Still .75 would be impressive here. Poconos/Sussex cty NJ ftw??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How much QPF is snow near HPN? Any more than NYC? you would have to go with john on the soundings...just looing at 850s you look to be all snow on 850s, maybe a mix in the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hey PT. Noticed you were in the forum. What are your thoughts about the latest GFS and Euro? How does Nassau County do with regard to precip type issues? Any comments would be welcome from many of us on here. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How much QPF is snow near HPN? Any more than NYC? It looks like at 78, white plains is just west of the 850 zero line and right near th 0 2m temp line as well. I think it would be a wet snow at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 assuming your around the harrisburg area you may start as rain or mix but you quicly go over to snow. around 1.25 for mdt what do the temperatures look like after the storm goes OTS and into the following day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Had the images of the EURO forwarded to me...I practically fainted. If the GFS had a better representation of the QPF field, it would be very similar to the EURO, it is already in terms of position of the LP and temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The cut off you posted is a little too close for comfort for the i-81 corridor. Still .75 would be impressive here. Poconos/Sussex cty NJ ftw??? jim your in the .75-1 zone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 With that much precip., many from Philly north should be seeing a lot of wet snow.. this could be an exciting storm after all. I would assume about 2/3 in the Philly suburbs is snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 jim your in the .75-1 zone... How about further west, how does the cutoff look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Xmas 02' ALL over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Xmas 02' ALL over again. I was just thinking that. The same thing happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It seems, if anything, rain would be at .5-6" of the total qpf with the rest snow, as the dynamics kick into gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Had the images of the EURO forwarded to me...I practically fainted. If the GFS had a better representation of the QPF field, it would be very similar to the EURO, it is already in terms of position of the LP and temps. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 total QPF lines .5 cumberland, MD to Bloomsburg PA west of Scranton to schenecdity, ny .75 hangerstown, MD to Carlisle, PA, to Hazleton, to albany, ny 1" Harrisonburg, VA to Harrisburg, PA to pottsville, PA to Hudson, NY 1.25 Culpepper, VA to fredrickr, MD to York, PA to Hamburg, PA to East Stroudsburg, PA to Kingston, NY 1.5 manassas, VA to westminster, MD to Lancaster Reading, Allentown, along NW Nj border to New Paltz, NY 1.75 blob from Trenton To Easton PA in To Ablout Flemington, NJ back down to Trenton All of DE 1.5 NYC 1.5 LI 1.5 All of NJ 1.5 (less the small blob of 1.75 outlined above) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It seems, if anything, rain would be at .5-6" of the total qpf with the rest snow, as the dynamics kick into gear. Want to see what earthlight gets on the text soundings but that sounds about right with more frozen than liquid as you move west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At what point (area) North/South on the Jersey Shore does the Euro give snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How about further west, how does the cutoff look? your fine your in the 1-1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Huh? The GFS looked beautiful at 700 and had similar placement of the LP as the EURO. I feel as though it's precip field looked a bit off, based off other indications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I was just thinking that. The same thing happened. different setup. this time around the 850 low is in a much more favorable position...during xmas 2002 JFK almost got up to 40 degrees with heavy rain...wont get nearly that warm as currently depicted by the gfs/euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not as bad a night as I thought was coming for my area. Still a lot could go wrong and I don't like the sharp cutoff but sitting at 1.25" even if it were to go to 1" it wouldn't be that bad. The GGEM is still too wrapped up in my opinion but if it were to move another 50 miles or so to the east, it would look like the euro so possibly it was the right idea.. 0z GFS is starting to shift and move back west so hopefully this is the storm that gets all of us hvy snow. It's been disastrous back here so my guard is still wayyyy up. But I think all can agree, with the exception of the NAM, things are moving in the right direction for inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Xmas 02' ALL over again. funny i posted that jan 21....i forgot what model showed something like this but judging by the timestamp it was the 12Z euro on the 21st. Posts: 515 Joined: November 12, 2010 <br class="clear" style="clear: both; "> Warn Status Posted 21 January 2011 - 01:32 PM december 25 2002 FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Based on the Euro I'd say everyone is snow by 84 hours with the exception of far eastern areas...the wind flow with such a deep storm could be coming around to 010-020 quite fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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