Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GGEM shifted east towards the Euro and GFS. The GGEM is still really warm for the coast. It's a great hit for upsate and central and western PA. Yeah it looks like the center of the low passes right over Cape May-Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 00z GGEM might change places back to snow after the moves on by. Yes, that is a big change - if its ensembles are any indication, it may not be done trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 0z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 00z GEFS means sure have the look of a classic nor'easter for the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I thought the Euro ended as snow for a lot of the places you just said 850s were way above freezing? Earthlight documented that NYC gets 1 inch of qpf all snow when the 850's crash east. This did not occur on the 0z Euro and in fact 850's never crashed that far east on the 0z like they did on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think a blend of the EURO/GFS seems reasonable. The Euro has been pretty consistent as of recent with it's evolution of the upcoming system. I think the 0z GFS depiction is similar. The H5 setup is favorable and would support the progression of this storm north and east towards the benchmark. Although during the start temperatures are warm, this is only initially and will cool dynamically as the result of a sub 990mb low. I think even NYC's likelihood of a moderate 4+ inch snowstorm is increasing. The high pressure might be pivotal in allowing for winds to shift and the lp to pull in cold air. The EURO just seemed more reasonable at the surface with it's depiction, better representation of qpf. I think NEPA, CNJ and NNJ, especially elevations, could see a significant heavy wet snowfall. We will see how things progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 00z GEFS means are still closing the 925 and 850 lows off over OC MD and tracking them to SE of LI..that's a perfect track for a whole lot of people in this forum even when considering the initial southeast boundary layer flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The best case scenario for the cities seems like a Rain to snow event, which is much more likely with the strengthening of the low moving NE and bringing the cold air down like the 12z Euro. Living in NYC, I'd take that solution in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Earthlight documented that NYC gets 1 inch of qpf all snow when the 850's crash east. This did not occur on the 0z Euro and in fact 850's never crashed that far east on the 0z like they did on the 12z. That's what the graphics literally show--but I have to admit that I am not overly confident on the reliability of the graphic. I've never seen it before...but the scale plainly reads that it depicts the liquid QPF that falls as snow. The scale goes from .1 to 1" (which is terrible) and then upwards from there. The 12z run had 1" liquid equiviliant north of Philly through NYC away from the NJ shore and Eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 0z GEFS Pretty fair agreement with the OP, just a little faster. QPF field looks more organized than the OP wrt the subsidence it was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 00z GGEM is actually over DE .... 12 Z was actually over SE PA..... So it actually came south and slightly east...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That's what the graphics literally show--but I have to admit that I am not overly confident on the reliability of the graphic. I've never seen it before...but the scale plainly reads that it depicts the liquid QPF that falls as snow. The scale goes from .1 to 1" (which is terrible) and then upwards from there. The 12z run had 1" liquid equiviliant north of Philly through NYC away from the NJ shore and Eastern LI. Cannot say I am confident either that this was correctly depicted by the graphic you referenced but this did not transpire on 0z because the 850's never crashed as far east as they did at 12z and that is what I am arguing. People are like getting all pissy like I am trying to snow hoard and unjackpot the inland folks or something by lieing what the Euro depicted per the 12z play by play earlier today. if people don't agree they can go read the pbp themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Cannot say I am confident either that this was correctly depicted by the graphic you referenced but this did not transpire on 0z because the 850's never crashed as far east as they did at 12z and that is what I am arguing. People are like getting all pissy like I am trying to snow hoard and unjackpot the inland folks or something by lieing what the Euro depicted per the 12z play by play earlier today. if people don't agree they can go read the pbp themselves. Inland members have been getting shafted if you haven't recently heard. Figured I would remind you. It's getting real bad out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 The GEFS still probably remain essentially the same based on the cutoff and surface low track. Still a few wrapped up members...still a few east members..but the majority of them look like what the OP showed tonight. It will be interesting to see tonights Euro for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Inland members have been getting shafted if you haven't recently heard. Figured I would remind you. It's getting real bad out there. Oh I know that and I am not trying to say they will get shafted again. Just stating the facts that the trends are not overwhelmingly west like some are making it out to be. It is ridiculous that now that the NAM-GFS came west some that all the sudden it is reliable to think that they are now all the sudden correct when folks were whining how wrong they were. Whether the pattern favors it or not, what happens if the EURO goes a bit more east, what's stopping the NAM-GFS from trending east as well in 6 or 12 hours? They have had no real consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GGEM still tracks the low west of NYC. Upstate NY and PA get pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This sounding shows no rain for LGA. Freezing rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Inland members have been getting shafted if you haven't recently heard. Figured I would remind you. It's getting real bad out there. I know I'm a broken record on this, but if the I-95 corridor got shafted year after year like this the way much of PA (which averages more to significantly more snow than we do) has since just about 2004-05, this board would be in complete chaos. There has definitely been some kind of longer term shift recently to favor more just offshore storms that slam I-95, and fewer hugger type storms that hit inland areas. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad I'm back here now and getting slammed for my 2nd winter in a row, but my 4 winters in State College were just about hell. I can't even count the number of snow threats we had that ended up slamming you guys or the Midwest, or just vanished entirely. One season of the 4 I was there was close to average, the rest were well below. Last season in State College was about average, this one so far is shaping up to be another well below. I definitely sympathize with those guys 1000 percent. End rant-mods delete if you wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 For PA Locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Sorry if my reply to Earthlight seemed a little imbyardish, but I just wanted to know what was his take on this storm, or his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 The 12z Euro was actually really good for areas 20 miles away from the coast, in case people forgot. The 925mb low was closed at three or four contours over OC MD, the 850 low was closed there as well. The CCB that developed was an absolute beast. Here's a zoomed in image courtesy of SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Noreaster07, where do you get the GFS storm output data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'd just like to know one thing. 24Hours from now, will we really have a handle on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Noreaster07, where do you get the GFS storm output data? http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=&stn=KC7H&model=nam&time=current&field=DEF scroll down left side select state, below that the list of locations for your state where there is data, below that pick the model and the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Noreaster07, where do you get the GFS storm output data? Crap you're in NJ and for some reason there is only 1 location for the state and thats ACY, I have no idea why when there are so many for PA and NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The 12z Euro was actually really good for areas 20 miles away from the coast, in case people forgot. The 925mb low was closed at three or four contours over OC MD, the 850 low was closed there as well. The CCB that developed was an absolute beast. Here's a zoomed in image courtesy of SV. Is that purple line the 540? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The 12z Euro was actually really good for areas 20 miles away from the coast, in case people forgot. The 925mb low was closed at three or four contours over OC MD, the 850 low was closed there as well. The CCB that developed was an absolute beast. Here's a zoomed in image courtesy of SV. Thank you. This is what I was talking about and nothing like this was depicted at 0z from what I recall, more east 850's when compared to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The 12z Euro was actually really good for areas 20 miles away from the coast, in case people forgot. The 925mb low was closed at three or four contours over OC MD, the 850 low was closed there as well. The CCB that developed was an absolute beast. Here's a zoomed in image courtesy of SV. What's the difference between the two solid blue lines. One is slightly north of LI and the other is slightly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I know I'm a broken record on this, but if the I-95 corridor got shafted year after year like this the way much of PA (which averages more to significantly more snow than we do) has since just about 2004-05, this board would be in complete chaos. There has definitely been some kind of longer term shift recently to favor more just offshore storms that slam I-95, and fewer hugger type storms that hit inland areas. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad I'm back here now and getting slammed for my 2nd winter in a row, but my 4 winters in State College were just about hell. I can't even count the number of snow threats we had that ended up slamming you guys or the Midwest, or just vanished entirely. One season of the 4 I was there was close to average, the rest were well below. Last season in State College was about average, this one so far is shaping up to be another well below. I definitely sympathize with those guys 1000 percent. End rant-mods delete if you wish. Amen brother! We have been royally shafted for many consecutive yrs now.Its a shame most ppl on the coast arent aware of that.Not that it matters really. I just think that ppl over there think that we do so well most yrs with big snows(even tho we really dont) so its ok if we get screwed this yr.Honestly, in the last 6 winters plus this one being 7, I rem one 9 inch storm. Every other one has basically been 6 or less, and most about 80% were 4 or less. I am not one to want to see other regions get screwed with no snow. I hope everyone gets all they can. I would just be happy for a 10inch snow, just one.Its been so long. Anyway man, you hit the nail right on the head and thank you for that. ...to answer dbc question, I wasnt living here in cpa from 80-99 so no idea.Im from Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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