SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its also the very reason that the GFS is still behind and playing catch up. Remember the models southeast bias..It will be slightly more west on the GFS before this is said and done..... Look at the UK @ 72 for reference how that is snug well to the coast......its actually west of the Nogaps.... The closest this storm is probably going to come is as I said earlier near the 12/26 or the 2/12/06 sort of track...with the pattern evolving over the Oh Valley and upper Midwest this is under 20% at this point of touching land much north of the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Trend has been west and will continue to trend west the next 24 to 36 hrs using the GFS and NAM. Lol, now that the GFS-NAM is becoming more favorable inland they are spot on and will continue to become more favorable until you jackpot but they were trash before, right? Let us not forget the EURO trended East at 12z from its 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 For all of you who have been trash talking the NOGAPS. It had pretty close to the solution now displayed on the GFS for the last 2 runs already. Well here is the 0z NOGAPS now. Same thing exactly, spot on for 3 runs in a row now. It kicked the GFS's behind. The NOGAPS was way inland with this storm system, the solution it and the GFS have now are nowhere near it's initial solution. Also, how can you say it kicked the GFS's behind when the storm hasn't happened yet? Come on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yes, I agree with you on this point as well. I think this thing trends further west. The Euro was probably right the last several runs already. In fact, I can't remember a time where the Euro and JMA showed the same solution and that solution did not happen. Those two models are spot on with the track and precip shield being well west of what the GFS is now showing. The GFS still has some trending to do. Maybe not a lot, but a least a little. Its also the very reason that the GFS is still behind and playing catch up. Remember the models southeast bias..It will be slightly more west on the GFS before this is said and done..... Look at the UK @ 72 for reference how that is snug well to the coast......its actually west of the Nogaps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The closest this storm is probably going to come is as I said earlier near the 12/26 or the 2/12/06 sort of track...with the pattern evolving over the Oh Valley and upper Midwest this is under 20% at this point of touching land much north of the Delmarva. By the time that this is on the door frame I would not be surprised to see this actually go across SNJ ..around the Cape May area! Time will tell but thats my opinion and it has been shown by guidance already.. so its well within the realms of possibility! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is simply not true. The Euro did not trend east. It was almost exactly the same with the low pressure placement. Lol, now that the GFS-NAM is becoming more favorable inland they are spot on and will continue to become more favorable until you jackpot but they were trash before, right? Let us not forget the EURO trended East at 12z from its 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its also the very reason that the GFS is still behind and playing catch up. Remember the models southeast bias..It will be slightly more west on the GFS before this is said and done..... Look at the UK @ 72 for reference how that is snug well to the coast......its actually west of the Nogaps.... I've been following your explanation of using the NOGAPS as a tool and find it remarkable that when the NOGAPS is WEST and the other major models are way east, since the NOGAPS has it SE bias, that the other major models will have to come west. great tool and thanks for tuning us in on it usefulness. WTG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NOGAPS was way inland with this storm system, the solution it and the GFS have now are nowhere near it's initial solution. Also, how can you say it kicked the GFS's behind when the storm hasn't happened yet? Come on now. As i have been saying but its been chosen to be ignored... If you understand the NOGAPS bias ..then you understand that the run that it showed going thru Central PA ..was its western extreme..The western extreme never happens ...though that is what the GGEM was showing as well....the model always will have a western extreme version and then it will back off after that (which it did) Aside from a few off hour runs (6Z last night) and the one run at 00z (two nights ago) the NOGAPS has always been west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 John, The last 3 runs of the NOGAPS have been spot on with low pressure placement and strength. It has not budged one ioda. The GFS has waffled like a dead fish. The NOGAPS was way inland with this storm system, the solution it and the GFS have now are nowhere near it's initial solution. Also, how can you say it kicked the GFS's behind when the storm hasn't happened yet? Come on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is simply not true. The Euro did not trend east. It was almost exactly the same with the low pressure placement. And its QPF shield trended west. We went from 0.50 at 0z to 0.75 at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is simply not true. The Euro did not trend east. It was almost exactly the same with the low pressure placement. Go back and look at the pbp of the 12z Euro 850's were decidely east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The GEM will probably come in over Cleveland...it would be fun to bet on where its gonna be on its 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Why do people keep bringing up the Nogaps? It's a horrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 And its QPF shield trended west. We went from 0.50 at 0z to 0.75 at 12z. You cannot just look at qpf, you have to look at the 850 line, it was clearly east. It is all in the play by play in earlier threads for the 12z Euro. Qpf wasn't more west, it was more expansive with heavier connotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yes it was colder, but that is not what you said at all. Go back and look at the pbp of the 12z Euro 850's were decidely east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Why do people keep bringing up the Nogaps? It's a horrible model. Probably since its been consistent for the most part and kind of nailed the last event...but its also some snow frustration from the interior folks as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Why do people keep bringing up the Nogaps? It's a horrible model. Anthony, you still don't get it, use it as a tool, not as a spot on forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Even though it will likely turn out to have been better with this storm than the GFS? Have you been reading why we are saying this? The NOGAPS came to this solution that the GFS is now showing 3 runs ago! Why do people keep bringing up the Nogaps? It's a horrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Go back and look at the pbp of the 12z Euro 850's were decidely east. I have the ECM every 6 hrs and I have the 12 Z up now on my screen at 84 hrs the 12 Z ECM....was smack dab over DE... 850s from about SNE along the coast down thru all but extreme NW NJ ...to I 78 in PA & points south were at 0 to +5 .... In land they were 0 to -5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yes it was colder, but that is not what you said at all. It was colder because it was more east with the 850's at 12z than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Here are the last 3 runs of the NOGAPS with this storm at the same point 78 hrs this run, 84 hrs the 12z run and 90 hrs on the 6z run. You can't even tell which is which. Amazing really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I have the ECM every 6 hrs and I have the 12 Z up now on my screen at 84 hrs the 12 Z ECM....was smack dab over DE... 850s from about SNE along the coast down thru all but extreme NW NJ ...to I 78 in PA & points south were at 0 to +5 .... In land they were 0 to -5... I thought the Euro ended as snow for a lot of the places you just said 850s were way above freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Go back and look at the pbp of the 12z Euro 850's were decidely east. the low placement was basically the same as 00z on 12z, until after reaching the Delmarva Peninsula, from there it is slightly west of its 00z run, this is very clear at 00z Thurs off the coast of NJ 12z vs 00z, from there its pretty much inline with 00z with a very slight nudge west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 00z GGEM is still west and inland but it took a big shift to the east from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GGEM shifted east towards the Euro and GFS. The GGEM is still really warm for the coast. It's a great hit for upsate and central and western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Why do people keep bringing up the Nogaps? It's a horrible model. I agree...the only timse it's been proven useful is either when it adds whipped topping to the sundae when agreeing with the mainstream model consensus... ...or when it's simply provided the enjoyment of a good laugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 00z GGEM is still west and inland but it took a big shift to the east from 12z. So glad to hear that. Perhaps we are finally coming to a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I am speaking only of this particular storm nothing else. I must say though that usually if this model has a storm, it happens, because often it does not show storms until they are right upon you, so when it shows one that other models don't, you had better be paying attention. I agree it is overall a terrible model, but if you understand its bias and use them effectively, it can be a very good tool for forecasting. If they are not using it, possibly they should be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 00z GGEM might change places back to snow after the moves on by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Honestly, this is starting to look like a redux of the 12/26 event minus the great cold air that was locked in all the way to the coast. I actually think DT made a great call on expected accumulations two days ago when he called for not much south and east of philly, then a large area of 3-6 covering the NW philly suburbs and parts C NJ and LI and then 6-12 for bascially the I-95 corridor north of Philly and then a narrow 30 mile wide band of 12+ about 30 miles NW of NYC up into SNE. Either way, with 10-1 ratios over most of the area at best and 0.75-1.25" QPF this ends up being any old snowstorm and a dissapointment in my eyes from a system that was once modeled to be an absolute beast. In alot of ways, this storm would have had a much larger impact if a GGEM solution verified, in reality, its just going to be some wet snow to add to the snowpack and another relativly short event with most of the precip falling while were all sleeping On a more posative note, I do feel as if some of the QPF on the western side of the NAM and GFS are underdone considering the location and strength of the lows, but until the models get a better idea as to where the best banding will setup and when we have to figure on ~ 1" QPF if your banking on a 00z GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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